The following post has been submitted by Ian Walker
For me, the key factor for confirmation has always been: how would major businesses, with business intelligence apparatus that would dwarf that of many first world nations, react?
Some of them have moral and ethical views on economic shock, and all want to keep their money!
Looking into a forest of NDAs and companies trying hard not to let their business rivals see what they are doing, means you have to stand back and look at the whole market; watching a dark forest for sign something is afoot.
Like birds flushed from the trees and the sudden silence of the animals they are the sign that something has frightened those who who inhabit the forest, the quiet sale of assets, the unexpected decline in markets, the inexplicable strategy changes, the lack of push-back on political market restrictions; these are the things you watch for when a Black Swan flies.
Big Oil started abandoning owning oil fields in 2011. The Banks have been shorting oil since before 2013.
Siemens had dropped their whole Nuclear industry and their $33 Billion Wind and Solar industry by 2012, and they were not the only ones; yes others took their perches, but the old birds know, and are happy for other to fall prey, while they survive.
The Old Money sold their Fossil Fuel shares. Big Oil joined the climate change lobby. In 2014 the Black Swan flew and leaks of the Lugano report triggered the slide.
The Saudi Arabians now want all the market share of oil, for a managed decline in the old energy sector, to slow the take up of the Black Swan, and to kill off as many competitors as possible for the future lubricant and precursor chemical market, replacing high margins on low volume with low margins on high volume means the profits remain high, ask Walmart or Tesco.
Old man coal is in a terminal drop, even natural gas is feeling the cold. Something has killed off the whole old energy sector, Fossil, Solar, Wind, Nuclear Fission; the lot, all kaput! World leaders have agreed binding pollution targets in record time, whoosh a couple of days, deal signed, home for Christmas.
The end of the one year industrial test is but a few months away. The markets have already priced it in.
The worlds economy is ready.
Seasons Greetings to you all. The Fossil Fuel Age has Ended. Welcome in The New Fire!
Kind Regards walker