Analysis of Tom Darden’s Position on Rossi, LENR and the E-Cat (deleo77)

The following comment was originally posted in this thread by deleo77

There is an interesting thought analysis that you can put behind this latest Darden interview. Someone who is a skeptic may say that in this interview Darden is cautious, guarded, he seems to be hedging. Darden still refuses to say that LENR is definitively real and that Rossi has shown it to be so.

But lets go to the other extreme. After all, Darden has had much closer contact with the e-cat than any of us. He has spent months with it. He has seen it in operation, he has authorized millions of dollars to be spent on R&D on it, he has set up a company around it, and he has brought in outside investors to help finance it. Darden is a reputable guy, well educated, and he has a $2 billion fund that he runs. Fraud and deception would hurt him greatly. Even if he were able to prove that he was deceived and was the victim of someone else’s wrong-doing, he would still be held accountable. He has a lot to lose.

So knowing what he knows now, Darden appears to be comfortable with talking about the e-cat to Fortune Magazine with a big photo of himself in the article. So just ask the questions below:

1. If the e-cat produced no excess heat and seemed like a dud, would Darden hold off from talking to Fortune for now until he could get a better sense of it? Probably

2. If Darden felt that Rossi was fudging the numbers and being deceitful, and that the Swedish test was poorly handled, would he say “a group of Swedish scientists tested the technology, and they got good results”? Probably not.

3. If Darden thought that the e-cat simply didn’t work after all of these months of testing at the customer factory and that he had never seen working LENR in action, would he say “Recently, we have been joined by Woodford Investment Management in the U.K., which has made a much larger investment into our international LENR activities—so we are well funded”? Probably not.

4. If the test going on now with the e-cat after all of these months was looking bad or even highly questionable would Darden have answered the question in this interview in the following way:

Q: So you’re optimistic?

A: Yes

How can anyone claim to know more than Darden when it comes to the state of the e-cat? And I mean anyone on either side of this, skeptic or believer? Darden is a Yale Law Grad who runs a multi-billion investment firm and knows due diligence like the back of his hand. He has put millions into clean tech investments, and has top flight scientific advisors. He has a fiduciary duty to his investors. Darden has spent a lot of time with the e-cat and Rossi up-close. He has seen it in operation. The skeptics line is the Swedes were fooled, and so was Darden. But time always sets the truth straight.

And one final line in the interview from the very cautious Tom Darden that only emphasizes everything above:

“We need to be calm, prudent and not exaggerate”.

deleo77

  • henk

    Mr Darden is very wise in being cautious. Many here think that once the results for the 1 MW are in and positive, the battle with the sceptics is won and LERN will be rolled out immediately.
    Unfortunately that is probably not going to happen.
    The reaction of the theoretical scientists will be to point to possible dangers, like:”We do not know how it works so we have to be very careful and not allow this technology on the market untill we have a rocksolid theoretical understanding. If it is nuclear it might blow up and what about radiation, etc, etc. ” It could stop the e-Cat for years, the time these scientists need for the battle to the Nobel price.
    The reaction of the sceptics like Gary Wright, Krivit and Yugo will be to try to stop Rossi with lawsuits, pointing to unknow but possibly terrible dangers.
    And maybe the anti-nuclear activists of Greenpeace will join in and try to protect their solar and wind pet-technologies by pointing out that the e-Cat is not “green” at all because it consumes our precious lithium resources.
    So Mr Darden will play slowball and build his case untill he has enough backing from mainstream scientists. It’s gonna be a long ride….
    He may be working on that right now.

    • builditnow

      Henk, Possible if not likely in the US, but, what about China, Russia, India just to name a few countries who won’t be bothered to listen to the scientist or be in the reach of the Yugo team’s lawsuits. India is already back into LENR at the national level.

      Will the US be allowed to fall behind once these other countries get under way with LENR?
      What is the strategic and military risk of not being a leader in LENR?
      Will there be a world wide effort to move to LENR away from fossil fuels once some countries start using LENR?

      When Industrial Heat is ready, could Rossi drop some helpful information to the experimenters that will make their LENR devices work, that way, IH can stay in the background and let others introduce the breakthroughs. IH could just offer LENR devices for sale, if not in the US, elsewhere. If there is a solid block to LENR, they could be made in garages all over the planet. Hard to stop at that point.

      Meanwhile, a well funded IH can refine their products to achieve such a low price point that the competition won’t think it worth getting into, this is Rossi’s stated aim and could be the reason for the delayed release.

      • Mats002

        I can understand that ‘big fossil’ wants a delay, but the rest of us (well I want anyway) like to see a disruptive change to even out the energy production to green alternatives.

        I hope we will see the open experiments to continue, another 9 month might be enough to high yield results.

        Big capital will win the market in the end, as always, because most people are not DIY:ers. But at that point all should be winners compared to the situation today.

        • Omega Z

          Situations change, but based on current use, Big Oil only has about 40 years left. In 20 years, the Saudi’s(Officially stated) and a few others are going to start reducing Oil exports & shortly after stop exports. Saving what they have left for there own use. Obviously, Things after that get awfully shaky in the world. Coal faces a similar fate in about 60 years.

          When these carbon resources are gone, we will need to find a way create them or leave modern society behind.

    • Omega Z

      henk, I agree it will take longer then many think as these things always do. Beyond that I disagree.

      Yugo will probably slink away never to be heard from again. Krivit’s backdoor support of his blog will cease as will Gary Wrights support. Their task was to stop it from seeing the light of day. Once it escapes into the wild it’s over. Foot soldiers are of no use once the War is over.

      You greatly underestimate power and the power of money. A few Warren Buffett types buy into LENR & it’s all over. A call to the president & party leaders is all it will take. Big physics will be told to back off & their funding will continue. If they don’t keep still, a shot across the Bow. Actually, it will take off their Bow with a 50% immediate cut in funding with the promise of more to come.

      Below, “builditnow” uses the China, Russia, India trump card.
      I highly doubt that will be necessary. I’ve followed Rossi since very early 2011. I’ve spent many a hour tracing those with various connections to Rossi, his business dealings & partnerships. I determined that Rossi is well connected. People I would call the foot soldiers of what’s known as “TPTB”. Those who get the job done for those higher up.

      To my knowledge & I could be wrong, there has been no overt efforts by those persons to help Rossi. However, one did pass the word not to interfere & leave Rossi alone. The same person who demeaned Mitsubishi’s scientist on their proposed theory while at the same time, Rossi was leaning in the same direction. In short, Rossi has been afforded a certain amount of protection.

      Note that even with Rossi’s disagreement about testing the E-cat with NASA, No one from NASA has been derogatory toward him. In fact, they have referenced Rossi on many occasions in a positive light. They either know much more then is public or they have been forewarned. Maybe both.

      It is no accident that North & South America & U.S. Military licensed sales was obtained by a U.S. Entity & that Rossi landed here in the U.S.. Rossi held these territories as off limits since the very beginning. Even China was held in somewhat reserve.

      As to the Yugo’s, Wrights, & Krivit’s, they are just a nuisance, an annoyance to be tolerated. Removing these nuisances would draw to much attention to those in the shadows. There are those in the U.S. who are waiting to take this to market.

      You Know, It’s not like they Bought Rossi off & he’s living it up on a sandy beach in Florida.

      Ohhh, Wait???

      • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

        sadly MY, SbK, GSVIT & clones, are reported to have done more than just derailed discussions.

        My bet, is that they should be very careful and keep the phone of their attorney 24×7, because once they were a few millimeter to be under attack of big pockets who don’t like you break their image.
        Hopefully for the poor mosquito, this time big daddy felt it was not worth the effort, given the small impact.

        I know however a startup that get damaged by MY.

        • Omega Z

          I wouldn’t mind seeing MY, SbK, GSVIT & clones get their just deserts.

          Anyway, The circumstantial evidence I’m aware indicates there are big powers who are watching & waiting for LENR to break out. I’m sure the foot solders of TPTB wouldn’t act unless they had orders to do so.

  • Gerard McEk

    It would be interesting to know who took the initiative for this interview. If it was Darden, then I would be sure things are going great with the plant. If it was Fortune, then it is less clear. But even then I see it positive, because the media seem slowly to get more interest in LENR.

  • Albert D. Kallal

    Much agree.

    I don’t think Darden or Rossi is misleading anyone.

    So is the existing plant working and performing well?
    Yes, I think it is.

    Is the customer saving a large amount of energy and are
    they happy? (yes, I think they are).

    In other words, the plant performs wonderful.

    I really think at this point the above is all correct.

    And Darden being cautious is also good!

    However, stating that we are working hard to build a commercial
    product is one thing, but Darden stated some doubts exist if the product can be
    commercialized (this is different then caution).

    I FULLY admit I may well reading what Darden is stating here with a wrong context here.

    The concord supersonic Jet was incredible, had SUPER
    amazing performance, but the cost of running the supersonic jet was too high
    compared to other choices in the marketplace. So the JET performed wonderful,
    but that did not mean the JET was viable in the marketplace.

    So the fact that we have a working plant that is performing
    very well does NOT mean the product is commercially viable at this point in
    time.

    Apple recently invested about a half a billion dollars in
    a company that was going to build transparent aluminum glass for their phones
    (this stuff actually exists – it called corundum or often called Safire glass).
    Such glass based on one of the hardest materials known would be scratch proof
    and a HUGE new feature of the Apple iPhone.

    However the glass company simply could not perfect the
    glass in time for the new phone, and it was not clear if they EVER were going
    to be able to. This does not mean that Apple was stupid or that they did not
    think the investment into this glass technology was a bad idea. And the company
    creating the glass felt the same way.

    So I don’t believe anyone is questioning that Rossi or
    Darden is misleading here. In fact BOTH have been VERY honest in stating that
    some issues remain that could prevent their technology from being viable at
    this point in time.

    Today journalists are rather brain dead and miss the MOST
    important statement and part of the WHOLE story!!!

    The question after Darden stated that the technology may
    not be commercially viable is WHEN the reporter needed to ask for what reason
    Darden feels this?

    The above in no way means Apple made a bad choice in some
    technology that could result in huge gains for their phones. And the same goes
    for Darden’s believe that LENR warrants investment.

    Clearly Darden is WELL informed and is MOST happy to do a
    public interview on this subject. However Darden clearly stated that issues
    remain and that commercialization of their technology is NOT a given.

    I find the above “different” then just being cautious.

    The above in NO WAY means that LENR is not real and that
    LENR will not be a huge energy revolution. However Darden’s statement means
    that some issue(s) could remain that hold back their technology.

    The $100 question we have to ask of Darden (or Rossi)
    then is what issue remains that could prevent them from commercializing their
    technology in its current form?

    I have zero doubts they all believe given enough time
    they will produce a great product. However this in NO WAY means we delete and remove and ignore Darden’s statement. I mean if we trust Darden, then we have to trust his statement that issues remain in terms of the product being viable.

    Stating that something is not viable is DIFFERENT THEN saying the plant works
    well!

    Based on what we seen so far, the plant works well, but this
    DOES NOT mean some issue remains that means the plant is not commercially
    viable.

    The simple matter is the interviewer simply missed out
    the most important statement and failed to follow up with the most important question!

    That simple question is:

    What issue are you dealing with that would prevent commercialization
    of the e-cat?

    Issues such as manufacturing etc. are moot and not anything
    that will hold back LENR or the e-cat. . Clearly whatever the issue(s) are here, Rossi,IH, Darden etc. are confident they can resolve such issues.

    There is “some” issue here that we clearly don’t know about as of yet.

    Regards,
    Albert D. Kallal
    Edmonton, Alberta Canada

    • builditnow

      Rossi’s stated aim is for an E-Cat so cheap that the competition won’t bother entering the market. That is quite a high aim, usually it takes several generations of any technology for it to get to it’s best price point.
      IH will at least want to be way ahead of any competitor and have relatively inexpensive product.
      Patents would resolve this issue and could be key to an earlier release.
      Competitive products or open experimental success will force IH to react.
      Our part is all this is to push forward with our open experiments.

      • Omega Z

        I think what Rossi really means is, so cheap that most competitors won’t bother. It would be cheaper for them to License Rossi’s technology. But there will be competitors. Just fewer.

  • Ophelia Rump

    Darden just seem to be using his professional demeanor. He manages investments for others.
    This is the language of his profession.

    • GreenWin

      Nice to have you back Ms Rump.

      • Ophelia Rump

        Thank you. I have been around. Just a little quiet, while the smart folks do their thing.

        • Omega Z

          You were gone? huh, I hadn’t noticed… 🙂

  • Frederic

    I think Tom Darden knows he could not be too positive with this journalist otherwise he would have attracted too much attention in the media now and put too much pressure on IH.

    He knows well things are not ready yet to go to market before several months.

    Probably he and Rossi will continue to downplay Rossi’s invention efficiency until the last minute.

    After March 2016 and the probable positive result of the one-year test, they will have to find some other reason not to attract too much attention until the assembly lines are ready to go.
    I guess this reason will be related to certifications to be finalized…

    • EmTee

      Yes, or IP / patent issues.

      • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

        read that presentation by Millis,

        http://www.focus.it/fileflash/energia/fusioneFredda/FF_doc/2009-06-25_NASA-GRC-Millis_AnomalousHeatEffect.pdf
        Risks -> Mitigations


        Competitive advantage weakened from premature disclosure
        ->
        • Threshold of attention is when device can be engineered
        • Disclose only enough for independent verification of key principles, not device, not best demo
        • After independent verification, advertise improved version whose performance is more pronounced than verification demo

        • Omega Z

          Yes, When at ICCF, tell what you did the previous year. Not the 1 that just concluded.

  • Mats002

    The countdown clock soon shift to less than 5 months to the end of the business test, but this message from Mr Darden implies it is already a success. The follow up from Fortune about the private big capital going in to small scale fusion might be the official start of big business entering the field. This should be good news for the LENR community, talents will be in great demand.

    I wonder if the group of open experimenters will increase with this development? It should be a good way to show talent and some might disappear for a good pay check.

  • ecatworld

    Thanks for the analysis, deleo. I actually don’t think this is an extreme position at all. It seems very sound logic, and fits right in with the way I see things.