Rossi: If Test Successful, E-Cat Commercialization to Start March 2016

Until now I don’t believe that Andrea Rossi has mentioned a specific starting date for when commercialization of E-Cat technology will begin, except to say that they will not be losing time to get started if the current test of the 1 MW plant is successful. Today, in response to a question from a reader on the Journal of Nuclear Physics about when plants might be available for order, Rossi said this:

Andrea Rossi

Ivan Idso:
If the results of the tests on course in the factory of the Customer, in Marh [sic] we will start the commercial program. To answer to you we’ll need a far more precise and detailed request. Please send detailed data to
[email protected]
Warm Regards,
A.R.

In the grand scheme of things March 2016 is not far away. In comparison, for example, I was reading today that Apple is looking to launch an electric car in 2019. So everything is riding on the current test in progress. Rossi has said that they have lined up outsourcing for manufacturing of their plants, and that they have orders for around $3 billion of E-Cat technology (however, that number does include the domestic E-Cats which will not be ready in March, it’s the industrial plants that will be first to market). He has said they have currently got the brakes on, pending the results of the plant test, but it sounds like those brakes will be lifted asap.

Things are shaping up to become a lot more interesting in the E-Cat World.

  • US_Citizen71

    Since the LENR reaction would not directly be turned into mechanical energy but instead into electricity and then changed into mechanical energy by a an electric motor, the drive train would be by definition hybrid.

  • clovis ray

    HI, Redford.

    I did not see the word commercialisation used,he said, we will start the commercial program. as if that program had all ready been in the plans, and waiting for the go ahead.
    if it were me, i would building as many as i could in the next 5 months, wouldn’t you, i am hearing encouraging things, but as before, nothing so far as i know, has been satisfactory, proven to me, I wonder how many different devices proven to have excess heat and electrical production, will come out in the next 5 months. i will venture none will come out, unless it possesses the rossi effect, and i believe he is the only one that can produce, a working device,

  • Albert D. Kallal

    I much accept that the “need” and market for heat and energy
    does not need to be created (as compared to computers). And if larger industrial
    companies jump in, then with large investments, then we not really talking
    about a “startup” growth pattern anymore!

    My context has been in that of startup type of company.

    If LENR breaks out into the mainstream news, then adoption
    rates could and would be VERY fast if investment dollars flow into this technology.

    So right now LENR really is much like some startup technology
    and the adoption rate will occur like a startup.

    However with/if major industrial players jump on this new
    bandwagon, then I much agree adoption rates will not follow the typical pattern
    of “new” technology.

    There not some need say for the internet or other “network”
    type of technology that is required for consumers to adopt before they adopt LENR. So the existing technology such as electricity and heating systems already in place does change how fast LENR can be adopted.

    So yes, I much accept that some tsunami and wave of adoption
    could occur in rather stunning way. Right now we are at the start-up stage. However, if larger players jump in, then this growth pattern likely will NOT be that of a typical start-up.

    Regards,
    Albert D. Kallal
    Edmonton, Alberta Canada

  • HS61AF91

    Also E-cats outside the US, UL approved, safety net will not wait around for approval – meaning Chinese, Russian, and Indian versions.
    I plan to keep taking my vitamin C and D and moving my but every day, and keep my rosy outlook on life, so as to be around for the grand paradigm shift.

    • Omega Z

      What makes you think other countries don’t have safety certification.

      With the internet, how can you not be aware of China’s Justice system.
      In China, you make a defective product that hurts people, you can be tried, convicted & marched to the town center for a 10 gun salute within a couple hours. That’s actually merciful compared to their prisons.

      • HS61AF91

        because I think the authorities there are not as strict as UL dictates here, and if a machine comes along that will provide heat, unattached to some central source, the ‘safety certification’ will play second fiddle to the fact of getting warm. Thanks for the question, it allowed me to expand my thought.

        • Omega Z

          I see most of the Worlds certifications & regulations falling into lockstep.
          In fact, much of it appears to be a cut & paste from developed nations certifications & regulations.

          The only difference being much harsher penalties. But that’s to be expected in the beginning. They need to ingrain it into there societies.

  • Gerrit

    Ones to watch – LENR cars

    LENR Cars, founded in Switzerland in 2012 and based next to the EPFL Science Park in Lausanne, is developing patent-pending fuel cell generators based on low energy nuclear reaction (LENR) technology to power electric vehicles without CO2 emissions or waste.

    These generators can produce heat and electricity, on demand, at a much lower cost than fossil fuel (under $0.01 / kWh). One gram of fuel – a mix of nickel and hydride powders, which stores hydrogen – is enough to produce 2.0 MWh of heat. LENR technology is based on electron capture and neutron capture reactions – non-conventional nuclear reactions that do not produce radioactive waste or dangerous radiations. The reaction produces 10,000 times more energy than a conventional fuel cell from the same amount of hydrogen. LENR Cars are currently developing small-scale systems, with a focus on hybrid electric vehicles since the Swiss company patented the use of this technology for transportation applications. A hybrid car based on its technology is expected to have a range of 150,000 km with zero emissions, and use less than $100 of fuel. It is about to start a collaboration with Nissan to develop such a vehicle together.


    Over the years, LENR technology could become a game changer in the entire field of energy. It has the potential to address many problems like affordable water desalination, decentralised energy production, reduction of carbon emissions, and nuclear waste treatment. LENR Cars is
    sharing its technology with larger corporations in exchange for licenses on their own technologies, in order to accelerate its development while managing costs.

    http://www.campdenfb.com/article/clean-investing-how-families-are-investing-cleantech

    Published since 1998, Campden FB (formally Families in Business) magazine has provided business-owning families of substantial wealth with the knowledge, insights and vital business intelligence they requires for successfully managing their enterprises and supporting their families. With access to the CEOs of the world’s leading family businesses and commentary from respected experts, campden FB probes the spectrum of issues facing ultra-high-net-worth, multigenerational family businesses.

    • Steven Irizarry

      google like monopoly of the car industry…no one can compete with a car with thousands of miles in range, thousands upon of dollars in savings yearly, incredible speeds and ZERO emissions to top it off

    • hempenearth

      Does anyone know if that collaboration with Nissan has started/progressed?

  • Nathan Bundick

    Hmmm…

    wonder if this has something to do with “andythegrump”
    (the main Skeptopath editor on the E-cat Wikipedia article)
    recent retirement from Wikipedia.

  • Bob

    Not just selling a unit……we should see certain activity before March.

    .

    The 1MW plant seems to require quite a bit of operational oversight. Rossi states he has almost lived in the container. There has been modifications made to the existing plant, including a major redesign of 100+ reactors to just 4. I am certain there are other changes. These will need to be proved out and operational procedures written and confirmed.

    .

    As Rossi has mentioned, there will need to be “certified” operators to run the plant, with the training and certification coming from Leonardo Corp? Industrial Heat? Not sure who is the real entity here with personnel qualified to train in both cold nuclear reactions and standard steam systems.

    .

    So with the above, I would have to imagine that the activity of training would start in advance of March. Otherwise, if only accepting orders in March, who knows when we might see delivery? We have seen “order acceptance” before.

    .

    So I am hoping to see training classes start before March. If not, we will probably not see any reactors in public in 2016. Leonardo Corp or IH would need to hire personnel with the proper qualifications to become installers / trainers. They would then need to train these people in the specifics of the eCat and heat exchangers. I do not believe this to be a simple task. While we have not been privy to full view, we have only seen a photo of one other employee. One known to be lonked with Leonardo corp. for some time.

    .

    Either there will be no “mass” sales and Rossi will oversee each install, or we will have to see a much larger group of employees. It could be that Rossi means by March, they will start the process of hiring personnel etc. and eCat plant shipments may not even happened in 2016. Who knows? We do not have enough information.

    .

    I do know from many years experience in engineering. manufacturing and aftermarket service…. to support something as large as Cold Fusion could be, would require a pretty massive organization. 3 or 4 people working in a shipping container will not cut it. Take a look at Elon Musk’s new battery factory…. huge, with estimated costs of up to 5 billion dollars!

    .

    So do not get too excited about March. It will be either a sale of one or two units or the public announcement that IH is now officially ramping up to produce the eCat plant. It is not really feasible to say that mass production will start in six months without news being leaked by some city government, contractor politician etc. about such a huge factory.

    I hope it is the IH announcement as sales of one or two units will almost certainly be to secret customers awaiting additional F9 results on some new model. I would like to see a concrete announcement from someone at IH. I would really get excited then!

    • Albert D. Kallal

      Interestingly, but one can often use “much” of the existing infrastructure.
      A computer company out of New Jersey in the 1980’s was selling mini and
      mainframe computers. Their operating system was based on PICK – a popular OS in
      that time frame. The company was called Ultimate computers.

      One of the main reasons for their success was they built
      a CUSTOM hardware board with the ability to execute the PICK p-code instructions
      directly. The result was about 3 times the performance of MOST vendors of that
      product for a given price. So they had a great product.

      So how did they build a worldwide service and support
      network overnight? Well the hardware boards they built simply plugged into Honeywell
      computers, they also they made a board for Digital (Dec) based computers. Thus
      for service and support around the world, be it France, USA, Germany etc., they
      simply piggybacked on EXISTING computer service companies. Since Honeywell and Digital had good service in every major city, then any kind of hardware setup, hardware
      install or change, or upgrades or repairs could EASILY occur with a call placed
      to Honeywell or Digital.
      And those companies were thrilled to take on the extra
      business, since little if any additional training to service and support their
      computers occurs with this setup.

      As a result Ultimate created a worldwide company with great
      service and support since Honeywell and Digital were proving the service.

      The same goes for Rossi. Any of the major HVAC companies
      could install + service such devices, and they would be most happy to take on another
      product. So if they current sell Lennox furnaces, such companies could easily
      become a dealer for the e-cat.

      Now I will admit the above does not happen overnight.
      However at least one does not need to build the infrastructure to service and support
      ones product overnight.

      Certainly some training, some training, manuals, documentations,
      support phone numbers and even some kind of dealer certification will have to
      occur.

      So as you WELL point out, this is daunting task, EVEN if
      one adopts and utilizes the existing business and support systems in place like
      Ultimate Computers did.

      I still hold out hope that some additional customer installations
      will occur next year – along with COP numbers, and visits to such sites by the
      press. But what company wants to public reveal why they are saving so much in
      energy costs to their competitors?
      At the end of the day, we talking about building a brand new industry – not like building a computer or even a car which we been doing for 100 years now.

      Regards,
      Albert D. Kallal
      Edmonton, Alberta Canada

      • TomR

        When you say, The same goes for Rossi. Any of the major HVAC companies
        could install + service such devices, and they would be most happy to take on another product. would you be talking about WATSCO (WSO) and Carrier maybe?

        • Albert D. Kallal

          Yes you are correct. However I don’t limit the suggestion to
          existing builders of HVAC, but their dealer network could be also be used.

          Most HVAC companies are much a “dealer” type business model
          and most are not restricted to selling one kind of HVAC system. (some are however limited – and you can get around this issue as Bell and Howell did – I note a example below).

          So while my example was based on large Honeywell and Dec
          (Digital) that have service in all major cities, in this case I was more suggesting that local HVAC companies could be signed up as dealers or VARS that sell such products. Most are free to sell several lines of furnaces or whatever. They could easily take on service + sales of e-cats.

          So such dealers and vendors don’t have to be part of a large
          and extensive “chain” or one large single service system like what Honeywell or Digital had in place. And they don’t have to be Lennox or Carrier either.

          However, the result at the end of the day is the same –
          the result is the ability to service + sell your product into most major
          cities.

          So really, my suggesting was to simply reach out to
          existing HVAC companies – they could be local business, or perhaps a “chain” of service companies – does not matter a lot.

          But in the case of exclusive?

          You then make the pitch to the manufacture.

          So you have Carrier, Lennox etc. also purchase
          such LENR devices from Rossi and re-brand them and THEN ship them out to their existing dealer network under their own brand name.

          Bell and Howell for example re-branded Apple II computers
          for sales into schools. This was hooked into the fact that Bell and Howell had sales reps who sold projectors and other media equipment to MOST school districts. So Bell saw an opportunity to sell computers though that SAME supply chain into schools. They did not have a computer, but Apple did!

          So in place of the “white” or beige Apple II, it was a
          dark grey Bell & Howell color:
          http://www.macgeek.org/museum/bhapple2plus/page02.html

          So both re-branding and the dealer adoption is possible here.

          Ultimate computers (And Bell and Howell) put their OWN
          logo and badges on the computers they sold despite them not own any computer factory! It made Ultimate look like a “big” IBM or large computer company when in fact they did not even build such systems.

          If patents hold up, then Lennox, Carrier etc. to save
          their dealer networks from bankruptcy may WELL be forced to purchase e-cats and re-brand them if they want to stay in business and keep their dealers alive with food on the table.

          Regards,
          Albert D. Kallal
          Edmonton, Alberta Canada

          • Omega Z

            I agree, Most of the infrastructure exists.

            Also, The general public doesn’t realize there are only about 8 or 9 major furnace manufactures in the world, yet there are hundreds of brands.

            There’s also only a hand full of TV manufactures in the world. If you have the financial means, you can order them to sell under your brand name.
            Apple makes a good example. Their I-phone manufacturing is all contracted out. Some of the components made by their arch rival Samsung.

            As to the install technicians, Most are able to sell & install any brand they chose. If they take on a new brand, at most they have a 1 or 2 day seminar to become familiarized with it Usually provided by the wholesaler.

    • Omega Z

      Bob,

      The reason Rossi spends so much time in the containers is because it’s still R&D. To learn & design around weak points. The goal is a stand alone system that does not require an operator.

      The issue will be maintenance. Industries that already employee steam heat processes already have trained personnel. These people will need only a limited amount of additional training & familiarization to be up to the job. I would expect maybe 2 weeks at most.

      When home heating units become available, the situation will be very similar. A couple days training & familiarization & they’ll be ready to install them.

  • Albert D. Kallal

    That is rather great news. This would suggest that after March 2016, only another say 4-5 years or perhaps a bit more need pass until such a product is ready for consumers.

    The challenge will thus not be performance or a working model, but a design that is safe and consumer friendly. (for example, how will the design allow one to change the fuel?).

    Safety certification still remains a stumbling block and could be blocked by the government for MANY YEARS until such time the device is deemed safe (this is especially the case due to lithium being used).

    A good analogy here is that of moving from the “kit” computers we had in the mid 1970’s to that of pre-packaged and consumer friendly computers. Note that ALL OF the hardware and chips were available off the shelf (you just had to place an order for those computer chips). Despite ALL OF the hardware existing, it still took about 4 years to move from computer kits to consumer friendly computers. Keep in mind we talking about ALL OF the chips used were already built and available off the shelf.

    So it was JUST a question of taking those off the shelf chips and placing them on a circuit board.
    The problem with e-cat of course is safety issues – a relative minor issue with computers.

    The huge drop of the price of the 6502 processor (used in Apple, PET, and Atari) also fueled this “race” to build a consumer friendly computer and not one for lab technicians.

    And the first wright brother’s aircraft was FAR from consumer friendly let alone pilot friendly!

    So for e-cat, the UL approvals, and efforts are NOW going to be used to create a consumer friendly product (as opposed to Rossi spending time in the plant or say at your house!).

    Given past examples of technology reaching this stage, then we could see something in the market in the next 5 years. So given Rossi’s claim of starting commercialization in 2016, then 2020, or 2021 is a reasonable time frame for such a product to be available. I suspect by then that oil will have climbed back up in price, and the timing of the e-cat product will thus be a welcome event to hold down energy prices.

    While Rossi enthusiasm is always great, the practical engineering suggest that that they likely will sell heat first as Rossi mentioned.

    So while Rossi plans to go forward full speed with all efforts to create a product for commercialization, the baby steps required to reach that point WILL HAVE TO OCCUR, no more so then when building a house you need to build the foundation first.

    There is no magic shortcut in building a computer, an aircraft, or in this case a new device that’s never existed. Throw in that this is not a remake of existing manufactured products, then 4+ years is likely the best timeframe, but 5+ years is certainly a reasonable time frame especially with safety issues.

    However these time frame are MUCH faster than I expected. And that is thus good news for all.
    The 2020’s thus as a decade should be most interesting as we and history will remember that decade as to when LENR was introduced to the world and commercialization of LENR begun.

    The 2020’s as a decade and the start of LENR is thus only about 5 years away!

    This means in place of having to wait say 10 years from now, LENR could hit the market in as little as 5 years! That is great news indeed.

    Regards,
    Albert D. Kallal
    Edmonton, Alberta Canada

  • Angry SQUIRREL!!

    once we start seeing these reach industrial customers the media will pounce on it.

  • stefenski

    They would not be speaking of a date for commercialzation if it was a failure.

    • Ged

      They have probably already begun production, so there will be some to sell immediately (hence such a solid date). Then the test results will be the marketing hook to get customers.

      • Omega Z

        Ged, Your getting ahead of yourself there. Or maybe ahead of Rossi/IH.

        They still need to fix the peripheral issues before starting production. However, many plans could be preliminarily worked out.

  • pg

    guess we got the count down right!!!

  • Jonnyb

    Let the new era begin.

  • Mats002

    If you are an employee and not yet have informed your manager about this development it might be proper to do so. Your company can be a winner but also a looser if/when big change comes.

    Action = Risk x Probability

    The probability that LENR will be a disruptive market changer increase with the development not only from Rossi/IH but also from Brillouin and other players we read about at ECW.

    The Risk is up to management to discuss and if choosen – to take actions for mitigation or benefits. Their first reaction might be something like :/ ???

    • Charlie tapp

      I have told them already , last year I emailed the head guy at my corporation we have an open door policy and a email address book on the computer so I used to email him every so often. When I sent the email about the ecat and cold fusion (my company is a giant mining company also at the time incorporating in a good size oil and gas company) I warned to start looking at nickel a little closer and not so much oil and natural gas. This raised some very big eyebrows and emails were flying around all over the world to all of our mining and fuel people as to who I was and what exactly I was talking about . They had a very high up engineer type guy email me back without even going through my manager explaining to me how cold fusion was not possible and they appreciated me telling them then a week later I get called into my managers office because he had heard about what had happened from his supper high up boss and he was kind of embarrassed and told me if I wanted to tell someone something follow the chain of command and that it would be decided from them what emails make it to higher ups. Pretty munch telling me I am crazy and to knock it off ! That was the only email sent to the main main boss (ceo) that ever got recognition he still didn’t email me but I thought it was cool that he at least saw one of my emails. They are usually weeded out by secretary’s as to there importance and content sent to appropriate people to answer them. I am hopeing when this all starts going I will get called in to advise them on the tech. And get a big fat raise and my own lab. wishful thinking !!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Jarea

        Really they did that? sorry but what a bunch of …. in your company. You will collect the fruits soon XD. At least, that is what we all want. I hope we are not all in wishful thinking 😀

        • http://batman-news.com Tristan Wells

          I wouldn’t be harsh on his company. We all get things wrong and it is pretty hard to sort the wheat from the chaff. You should judge people on their ability to admit mistakes not whether they make them

      • Mats002

        Good going! Sounds like your company is to some extent mentally prepared for the energy revolution. You deserve a higher rank and a fat raise ^^

      • Omega Z

        Sorry Charlie,
        They shoot the messenger, Especially when it becomes bad news…