History Being Made As We Speak?

We’re in a strange situation. In some ways Andrea Rossi is hiding in plain sight. He’s telling us a lot of what he’s doing, without fear of getting too much attention, because very few people with influence believe what he says.

Let’s take this quote by Andrea Rossi on the Journal of Nuclear Physics today for example.

“The 1 MW E-Cat is an industrial plant, already in operation in the factory of a Customer and producing energy for an industrial activity, not for laboratory R&D: this, in itself, is an important achievement, because it is the first time in History that a plant with this kind of technology is put at work in a productive concern.”

Speaking for myself, I don’t doubt what he’s saying. But setting aside what Andrea Rossi says, this information has basically been confirmed. The Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten has reported that it has received independent confirmation from someone who has personally been at the plant that it is working. There have been other such reports from Mats Lewan and Torkel Nyberg (possibly getting their information from the same source). So it does seem to be the case that the E-Cat plant is doing its job somewhere in the United States.

I see this a tremendous milestone, and it should be highly beneficial for the company cutting its fuel bills. However for those who want to see viable LENR in the marketplace, we have to wait for out-in-the-open on-the-record confirmation of the performance of the plant, and we won’t see that until the test is over.

So we’re kind of in a strange state of limbo at the moment. A huge majority of the world’s population know nothing about this technology, and of those who have heard about it only a small minority are taking it seriously. I reckon only a relatively few people seriously believe what Rossi reports. Until the plant is unveiled I don’t think that will change too much.

BTW, by my calculations, Friday of this week should be the half-way point of the 350 day test of the 1 MW plant.

107 Replies to “History Being Made As We Speak?”

  1. I am all in favor of slow and steady.. rather than rush forward and crash then burn because we didn’t take precautions..success is meaningful but a blunder at this stage.. especially one that can be used to paint Rossi or the e-cat in a bad light.. is one we need to avoid at all cost.

  2. What we really need to see is an independent customer saying that they’ve saved 50% on their energy bills and that they have had long periods of uninterrupted production. IH need to say that so far testing is going well and the customer is happy. This mysterious unnamed independent person who has seen the plant in action needs to tell us exactly what he has seen that makes him believe the plant is running efficiently.

    1. From the way these people operate, I don’t expect any comment (other than Rossi’s typical remarks) from insiders until the testing is over, so I think we will be basically in a holding pattern until the test is finished.

        1. Hi all

          In reply to GED

          Actually just good business sense. Everyday Industrial Heat LLC can research design, build, plan and prepare, is just a 1/4 of a day they will be ahead of competitors who will. Reverse engineer the E-Cat in short order. At that point it is your strategy for market position that protects you investment. Consider Rossi has invested most of his second fortune in E-Cat and the other investors, have invested their money. And that is before we consider the sweat equity Rossi in particular has invested.

          It is those strategic market positions that will protect their investment. It is forst of all about controlling the market. First of all with technological edge. Then they will be looking to set up laws to prevent lower cost market entrants (. They will look to control the so called three Ps: The Products both the reactors and the services needed to operate and run them, from materials and parts to training and certification. The People who work in the business, those with the research knowledge, those with the experience and the skils, all to be certified and trained and vetted. The Processes, including all tools, machines and materials which the people use to make and maintain the reactors and anything attached to them.

          They will seek to make them more complex and turn into the three Ss:
          The Solutions that are formed when we multiple derived products are put together in order to satisfy higher numbers of more complex customers. The Societies and social systems that will occur when people get together to use LENR products, hence all the interest in the LENR “Ecosystem” an understanding of the Systems that are created and formed by multiple interlinked processes, so that they can control and navigate at least their own and ideally the environment in which the business operates.

          The time that the testing takes, will be being used by what will probably be and increasingly larger back-room staff of lawyers and business managers, writing the manuals, instruction booklets tests and for all the above.

          Have you seen the size of a large companies back-office? Do you not think that IH will inevitably end up with a corporate office of similar size to say Google? Do you really think they spend all that money on those back office staff for nothing?

          I have barely grazed what a major business this will create.

          So everyday they can prepare the above and much much more besides is and advantage to them.

          BUT!

          They are in a market. And they have competitors. About a week ago a contact let me know one of Rossi’s competitors is looking to announce a market product in October. A couple of days later Rossi announced that he could also have product to market as early as October, I do not know if Rossi was reacting to the same news but I found it odd, that Rossi announced just two days after.

          To me it seems either could be just a spoiling announcement, but Rossi’s competitors so know one thing. Rossi has schedule for the end of testing. If they want to obtain key first announcement market dominance then they have to be to market before Rossi in February 2016. An October announcement would give them that position and several clear months to gain control of aspects both of the market and its regulatory framework. I am sure Darden at the very least is aware of this.

          Kind Regards walker

  3. The more important question is. How can we profit from this historical event? It’s one thing to know that Microsoft or Apple will change the world. It’s better if we bought stock early. Hey I’m all for helping the world and all, but it’d be nice doing it from the front seat of a Bentley.

    1. The first opportunity to directly profit from LENR occurred with the release of the Lugano Report; anyone that shorted oil & the related public companies has done very well.

      This will be the template for near term profits from LENR; figure out who loses and go short.

      The second phase will centre around industrial concerns who will get direct orders to manufacture Ecat components; if any of the smaller enterprises are publicly traded go long.

      The third phase will centre around first movers that will gain competitive advantage through adopting the Ecat; go long on the early adopters go short on their lagging competitors.

      The fourth phase will centre around business that conceptualize entirely new enterprises based on the Ecat; put on your thinking cap as this is going to be huge…

    2. I see a path to “profit, whatever that means to each person, is to imagine how you can apply this technology to a field of your expertise. Do you work in aerospace, automotive, manufacturing etc… I work in the water and wastewater industry and I try and come up with ways to replace energy intensive processes with the ecat. Even more imaginative is to flip the current process upside down and design systems that use limitless energy to replace current treatment processes. We build everything and perform most processes with an design philosophy to energy savings. Cars are aerodynamic and light weight to save fuel as an example, we insulate our houses for the same reason. Energy scarcity is a conerstone of the world economy and this shift will be profound. The most exciting ideas will be the ones that are totally unthinkable with todays technology…

  4. Following this story since late 2012:
    > initial curiosity
    > cautious willingness to believe
    > encouragement about the signs
    > seeing the goodness of ecatworld
    > feeling too many people were involved for it to be fraud
    > smiting the trolls
    > watching MFMP emerge
    > noting results from Brillioun
    > great enthusiasm for the Lugano report
    > great enthusiasm for the Industrial Heat association
    > amazement at the pictures of the current working commercial installation
    > great enthusiasm for latest ICCF
    > full expectation that LENR will become a major energy source
    > realization of the uncertainties about eventual COPs
    > realization of the difficulties experience in replication
    > realization of difficulty in following the science and engineering in more detail
    > realization of the time required for industrial adoption
    > realization of the inertia in geopolitical change
    > realization that future progress announcements will likely be more like business press releases

  5. It is a very odd situation but I feel privileged that I have been able to follow it since 2011. I hope that when the test ends next spring we’ll get the due reward for our patience.

  6. The best way would be to get in early and buy stock in companies that are creating LENr products. They needs the capitalization early and we get rewarded when their stock goes up.

      1. I love that idea. If the e-cats can make direct electricity. They can make microwave engines that use water as propellant. Interesting times.

    1. IMHO, many are looking at just that: finding the way to invest and profit from a black swan event. There will be many companies that will, in one way or another, utilize LENR in their technologies and processes. Those might not be listed on the stock exchange at the outset. Semiconductors are already marketed products – possibly the demonstration that LENRs do exist – and there are companies that produce them.
      Many might consider perhaps investing initially in companies that are already listed, and are likely to get this revolutionary technology to market first. There are companies about which some information on patents or actual related innovations has already leaked, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota, Airbus.
      LENRIA or LENR-Cities might prove to be these new LENR companies’ ecosystems; many companies might initially appear on the market, then evolve and strengthen or weaken, or be replaced by others, depending on their success or as the market will shift.

      What seems strange, agreeing with Frank, is the contradictory and seemingly increasingly chaotic historical context in which we see this type of technology germinating, and the apparent complete lack of reactions that this disruptive technology has caused to date.

      1. They laughed at the guy that first thought of pumping oil out of the ground in Pennsylvania . But he persevered and created America’s oil industry.

  7. I do not understand the reason for the length of the current
    one year test. There is very little more
    that can be learned about the plant after say 6 months. Every day this
    technology is not implemented is critical.

    1. How long the fuel lasts before it must be changed is critical.
      With something new there are often unexpected problems. For commercial use, with a warranty, better safe than sorry.

      1. But this is the original E-cat reactor. All the operating characteristics for these reactors have been known for years and previously tested and reported for the 1MW plant previously sold to the secret military customer. We were told itwas performing to specifications, and the specifications were for a COP of 6.
        The differences in the latest 1MW plant are mainly in the control system.
        One would imagine that with the more sophisticated control systems, the COP would be even higher.

        It’s hard to understand why there are no reports on what the COP has been for the last six months.
        Some might conclude from this that either the COP falls far short of the previously claimed figure of 6, or that it is not operating at all.

        1. Strange, as there have been multiple reports on the COP for this plant ranging from 20 to 140 depending on the SSM duration.

          Additionally, this is not the same as the original as it is 4 x 250 not 106 x 10

      2. You might be right if it is a new toaster being developed, but this is technology the world needs desperately

    2. he needs absolute certainty that it works reliably or the oligarchs( who apparently put money above their own childrens future)will kill it ,especially through the wholly owned media.

  8. Well, I had hoped for some more specific information, but AR kept the details wisely to himself. I hope he will reveal more later and before February next year. Lately we do not hear so often that it is in SSM. Maybe things go less well?

    Never the less he is right. He is making history by supplying nuclear heat to a conventional plant. As long as the COP is above 4 it will be very profitable.
    And also: the Hot cat (M.me Curie, now E-cat X) is ‘promising’, as AR says…. Keep on hoping!

  9. what scare me is that all of us have followed the story and we still dont have a real LENR device that we can see and touch. All the hopes and promises come from third persons, but direct confirmation from a product and mass media is not there. For me is scary and at the same time, amazing because i am confident in LENR, besides i don´t understand why the mass media still ignore LENR.
    On the other hand, i always have the fear it Is like when the companies tries to sell you something for the next year and then it never comes. I just hope we find an end at the end of this 1MW test. It has been a long way since 2008.

  10. “We’re in a strange situation……”
    What is REALLY strange in today’s world (actually very sad) is that there probably is 20 reports in main media about “how little Kim Kardashian wore today” or “Did Ben Afleck cheat with his nanny” or “What did Bruce Jenner aka Caitlyn do today!” but…… NO mention of LENR or the impact this 1mw test could have. We hear about a dozen minor (and some very stupid if I may say) ideas about green technologies. Not that they are all bad, but some really stretch the envelope. Yet not a word on LENR / Cold Fusion, even after reports from a number of unrelated organizations from different countries reporting very positive results.
    Yes, we really are in a strange situation! Most of the world would rather know what Jennifer Aniston’s wedding dress looked like rather than the status of a revolutionary energy source.
    Oh by the way…. the Manhatten Project was top secret. Extremely so… Yet when president Truman met with Stalin before dropping the bomb on Japan, Truman informed Stalin that the US had this new super weapon. Stalin, looking quite bored, stated he already knew about it and probably actually new as much if not more than Truman did! While I do not place LENR quite on the same level as the A bomb (yet anyway) it would be one of the top technological events this century. How is it that it is not classified as top secret, but fewer people probably are aware of it than was of the Manhatten Project. Heck, we cannot even find out who or where the 1 mw customer is! That is really hard to believe! It surely could not be that tightly kept! 😉

    1. Indulgence in short-term parasitism is the goal of today’s society. Hence out of sight – out of mind. We need distractions to stay in the focus, like you mentioned above, lest the children start asking questions about good vs bad and why we still prefer Imperial system when the original Imperialists switched to SI. Why? To foster the lack of competence. Incompetent kids are more willing to be parasite protectors as long as the wars are glorified with the aid of Hollywood. Truth means hard work. Looting means instant gain at the expense of harsh life for “Future” generations. Call it QE; call it petrodollar; call it private Fed; call it jingoism; call it spreading the democracy – it’s all the geopolitical game. Grass photosynthesizes; cattle grazes. Trees produce; people consume. “Advanced”-in-weaponary-Countries bully five lunches; others try to hide their lunch.
      Hence we primarily need morality reform. First it begins with calling a spade a spade. Learning grammar and switching to SI units.

    2. ” Most of the world would rather know what Jennifer Aniston’s wedding
      dress looked like rather than the status of a revolutionary energy
      source.”
      Bob

      You assume the programmed editors of our “news” represent the actual interests of human beings. We think not. It should be apparent by now that “mainstream media” is little more than a narrowed conduit to a compartmental agenda. The kool part is your a part of it all Bob!

      However, fear not. Silicon Valley shakers and movers are tuned in. These guys smell commerce better than a hammerhead downstream of a shipwreck. http://brillouinenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Brillouin-PR-AlwaysOn-Global-100-Companies-to-Watch-Announcement-7-6-15.pdf

      BTW, did Jen wear that Vera W Chantilly Lace number??

      1. I find the quote in the referenced article perhaps more pertinent to us:(the beguiled LENR/Rossi proponents), much more so than whether the mainstream is blinded by Hollywood, or the political factions are for or against:

        “Energy is the biggest business opportunity there is. There isn’t anything more important than energy. With clean, cheap energy you can create everything; you can create money, clean water, health, the basis for a higher standard of living. Brillouin Energy is the closest technology to anything commercial that we have worked on to date.”

        We will always have a hive or top down order to how we as humans cooperatively interact with one another. What’s the corporate adage about 20% of the workforce getting 80% of the innovation or work complete? You should count yourself fortunate to not be so much of the herd that you too would have missed this very interesting time or set of circumstances in human history! (…man, I sure hope that doesn’t appear as a buffoon’s statement several years from now!).
        From my perspective we should ask ourselves: Given our fortunate perspective and provided the comments like those from potential commercial competitors like Brillouin, what is it we could do cooperatively with this emerging new world technology?

        I think it a good start to understand the individual components that the quote above recognized.

        1. Good comments Steve. One hopes the emergence of a new energy paradigm will pave the way to equitable standards of living for the planet. AND spotlight the misanthropic chicanery of the culprits who delayed it.

  11. The world is too open a place now to have any idea killed. There are more people looking to make a buck than people making one. They may try to stop it with regulation but there are too many way around this nowadays

    1. The problem is that Rossi is far ahead of the the others, the hope of the near revolution is only on Rossi. If the rich countries try to stop this then Rossi has not played well their cards. Bezpiek is right with his concerns.

    1. I have just created an account on Reddit only to support LENR. We should do all the same :).
      I have done my job to counter the phatoskeptics that only negate the evidence. Good discussion on Reddit with a lot of links about LENR.

  12. Does anyone still believe this could all turn out to be a combination of massive fraud and sloppy measurement? Is that realistic?

    1. While I, myself, still think Rossi is the genuine article, skeptics are still able to ask:
      1) Where, exactly, is this 1MW plant?
      2) Who, exactly, is the “satisfied customer”?
      3) Where, exactly, is Rossi doing his research and testing?
      4) In which factory and where would the E-Cats/Tigers/whatever actually be manufactured? Starting when?

      5) Does Industrial Heat still own a share in the IP and/or the profits of the ECat?
      6) Is Tom Darden happy with the latest developments or not?
      7) Are the original investors in the ECat still happy or not?

      1. And how would revealing any of this information further Rossi’s (and IH’s) goals?
        Have you followed the exploits of Gary Wright?
        This information would be used to damage Rossi’s efforts.

    2. I think we have reached a point that is not probable. However, If that happens, then i think many of us we will ask for somebody’s head!. The disappointment will be so big that it will be translated in fury and shame.

      I think it will be like you find your partner with somebody else. XD.
      Besides, I am not agree when many say that Rossi doesn’t ask us to believe. Of course, he doesn’t say it directly, but telling a story and tell us that the story is true and not just fiction to our entertainment means that you must consider that this is true. If we start, telling lies as they were true without consequences then we could not build anything good from our society.

      If you dont want to harm with your actions or activities because they could all go wrong, then, you should not tell anything. For me the F9 positive or negative phrase of Rossi is not enough to save him in case everything turns out to be wrong.

    3. Since “reality” is at best a mental model, “realistic” depends on what kind of modeling you choose.

      If you were to take the whole network of known events associated with the Rossi Effect, and considered all of their potential causes and effects across a broad range of scenarios, and then assign a probability to each of them, you would come up with some kind of percentage likelihood for each scenario.

      Of course, no one is going to do that. However, we all do approximately that in our brains all the time with everything we encounter all day long. It’s called intuition.

      The measure of intuition is performance. We either invest further in our intuited beliefs, or we hold back in feeling confident and exploring forward. If you’re still holding back, you still aren’t convinced.

      If one were to review a good chunk of the information on lenr-canr.org, and consider the various reputations and accomplishments of the people involved, and then if that person still felt significant doubts, I would say it’s time to look for ulterior motives or per-conditioned mental attitudes as to why that person had doubts.

      It’s easy to doubt any one part of it, or to cast doubt on any one part of it, by saying about that one thing, “It’s possible that….”

      The response to that is “so what?” It’s possible the sun will go nova and not rise tomorrow. I’m planning to do some stuff anyway.

      If anyone can provide a model that 1) considers most of the events that have been publicly known to have occurred and 2) indicates a significant chance that the Rossi Effect is not “real”, and I’d be interesting in reviewing it.

  13. Tom Darden’s (Industrial Heat/Cherokee Partners) wife is a V.P. at GE & Tom is very plugged into investment banking and larger pools of venture capital.

    I expect a lot of thought has gone into who will be participating in manufacturing components with a view to getting some heavyweights that might become competitors inside the tent from the get go.

    1. Another thing to consider, re: the competition, is the concept of contracting to supply heat to financially sound companies. Let’s say that the contract runs for 5 years; the entire amount of the signed contract becomes a negotiable instrument with a yield spread that allows IH to monetize it immediately and, of course, well prior to actually building anything once the device is proven beyond a reasonable doubt to be well engineered.

      No money down, no maintenance, no capital costs, no installation cost, just be among the first in your industry to slash costs; obviously gonna be a tough sell…

      Kinda looks like the mother of all money machines to me.

      P.S. The prior art extends back a least as far as the day Rossi walked into Focardi’s office with $10,000 and said take this money and show me what’s wrong with my device.

      1. If that were true about the prior art, then Rossi would stand almost no chance of being granted a patent.

        Fortunately for Rossi, the device has changed a great deal. His latest application is for the solid-fuel device. I don’t know when the first statements/demonstrations of that particular device were, but it is certainly possible that he didn’t make any before May of 2012.

        Of course, even if he gets patents on the solid-fuel device, people could still make pressurized hydrogen e-cats. There is an old application covering some parts of that device, but (in my personal opinion) I’m not holding my breath on that one.

    2. That’s all well and good, but if he doesn’t have a few enforceable patents, he is not going to end up owning the tent. There is no reason for GE to pay Rossi anything unless he actually has his IP protected.

  14. Franz Von Goetz
    August 12th, 2015 at 3:53 PM
    Dr Andrea Rossi:
    I am following your work since your first steps with Prof. Sergio Focardi and it seems to me that at last you arrived to a breakthrough: can you confirm that we should have a consolidated 1 MW plant by the beginning of 2016 and a new Hot Cat X off the shelf by the end of 2016? Is this scheduling realistic?
    Cheers,
    Franz Von Goetz

    Andrea Rossi
    August 12th, 2015 at 5:28 PM
    Franz Von Goetz:
    If the tests on course will have positive results yes, your forecast is realistic.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

  15. Patrick Ellul
    August 12th, 2015 at 6:15 PM
    Dear Andrea,
    Regarding the “something else” that you mention that E-CatX has over the other cats:
    Does it make it easier 1) to manufacture? 2) to certify? 3) to protect its IP?
    Is that why it makes you more optimistic about the time line for it going on shelves? F9 of course.
    Warm regards,
    Patrick

    Andrea Rossi
    August 12th, 2015 at 8:41 PM
    Patrick Ellul:
    I would say all the three. F9 of course.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

  16. Nothing strange for me so far. If AR has a 1mwt generator to test – why he should tell everybody, including his competitors anything about his progress? Personally I think he even tells too much – probably because he also wants some public acknowledgment – now, not in next few years. Any businessman with product like e-cat would shut-up dead until he is fully ready to go to the market. And then product is ready, it will find the customers with speed of light without any attention to critics and disbelievers.

  17. If anyone hasn’t yet said it — I think that the current situation is quite similar to the time before Wilbur Wright’s public demo flights outside Paris in 1908. At the time before these flights, very little was reported on the Wright brothers’ successful activities with motor powered flight, simply because it was widely considered impossible. Yet I would say that heavier-than-air flight as an idea was significantly more accepted, and also easier for anyone to imagine, than cold fusion which is a rather obscure concept for most people. No wonder no-one reports on cold fusion.

    1. Yes similar, but if you divide that time differential by the speed of internet and news media of today, perhaps a bit quicker response once final results are positive.

    2. There is still not a reliably reproducible test showing cold fusion/LENR. It will take that or a commercial product for acceptance/legitimacy.

    3. Much agree. And much like the Wright brothers, in many ways
      the “lack” of acceptance gave them much leeway and extra time in the
      marketplace.

      In other words, some big “splash” event or moment in time
      actually works against Rossi. (at least until he is ready to jump into the
      market in a large way).

      The LONGER the public and marketplace ignores LENR is the
      LONGER and more time Rossi has to get his ducks (or shall I say cats) in a row.
      In many ways, Rossi does not really want
      some big splash event until such time it is a benefit for him.

      Any such large public event will ONLY serve to have other
      players jump into the field. Right now, Rossi is at least 5+ years ahead of
      everyone else. And the Wright brothers were not the only ones with a plane, but
      they had a practical and BETTER working design then everyone else for about 7
      years.

      So yes, I think there will be a “Paris” like event for
      LENR in much the same way that occurred for the Wright brothers.

      And the Wright brothers due to wanting to keep their technology
      often were hesitant to show the plane to many people. (this slowed down adoption of airplanes).

      So yes, I do believe that some “event” will occur in
      which most will agree that LENR came out for all to see.

      In fact, a real watershed point in time was the 60
      minutes video (this one:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTvaX3vRtRA

      Many a company and people were inspired by the above. The
      fact that CBS hired an independent engineer (and a LENR skeptic at that) to look
      at LENR and then became convinced is very powerful testimony.. Quite sure that video caused Beryllium to come into existence.

      Outside of Rossi, that 60 minutes video was a watershed event
      in time. Such a video should have set the world on this cold fire. However
      Rossi (like wright brothers) not only has a working LENR, but one that is commercial
      ready and viable.

      I do believe a “similar” piece to 60 minutes showing a commercial
      LENR plant in operation will create that magic moment in time that we all
      waiting for and will remember!

      Regards,
      Albert D. Kallal
      Edmonton, Alberta Canada

    4. Indeed Mats. Given the mainstream theory our universe is a holographic projection, (computer simulation) it is interesting to note the “bugs” that have delayed human evolution and the lawful application of informed consent.

    5. Re: the above comment, “No wonder no-one reports on cold fusion.”
      There is only one reason no-one reports on cold fusion, and that is because there has yet to be an indisputable demonstration of it’s validity.
      For the Wright Brothers, it was the very flimsy and impractical flying machine flying a figure 8 around a field which turned that tide.. Once that was done the proof of concept was undeniable by any and all who would want to discredit it.

      Still, after 5 years and all the so called independent tests and demonstrations, there has never been a simple and undeniable proof that an e-cat in any of it’s configurations actually works as claimed. For the most part all we have are the proclamations of just one man and even these are framed in a language riddled with ambiguities. Does he mean this, or does he mean that?
      A device is reported as running like a Ferrari but for the purpose of a demonstration needs to be de-tuned to purr like a kitten, but then when actually tested, appears to be hardly breathing, and on later analysis, it seems even that was an illusion.
      All tests so far have had such serious deficiencies that they are deemed inconclusive at best and worthless at worst.
      That is the sole reason why no-one reports on clod fusion..
      It’s not due to the suppression by big oil, big industry, or big anything. It’s simply that it is deemed to be a big trick.

      The simple alterations on these tests required on the same apparatus to remove these doubts and opinions are never done. Instead, more complex demonstrations using different techniques and measurements are done on different incarnations of similar devices, but all incorporating new errors which would explain the supposed positive COP results, rather than an LENR process.

      Some argue that the process is purposely kept doubtful in order to gain some time advantage over competitors. If that was the case it’s hard to explain the constant blogging by the inventor of miraculous developments taking place daily.
      The best way to gain an advantage over competitors would be to put something on the market and let the market decide, as was the original mantra.
      Five years after an e-cat was reported to be heating a factory for two years, what do we see? More announcements of miraculous devices the results of which could be positive or negative.

      Quite simply, the world is still waiting for proof that the e-cat can fly.
      When that happens it will be reported world wide and enthusiastically, but.
      that point will need undeniable proof because at this point, the common belief is, similar to pigs, cats can’t fly.

      1. Dear Uncle Bob, clearly you are suffering deep frustration. Many here sympathize with you. Try to keep perspective. Weekly we read mainstream announcements that our “laws of physics” are fragile at best. EmDrives, perpetual motion time crystals, holographic universe, virtual particles, zero-point, cold fusion etc. etc.

        Turns out the world is not as stable as physics wants it to be. And little wonder! Physicists are ignorant of 96% of the universe we live in. Dr. Rossi’s revolution is just the tip of the science paradigm. Sure it’s infuriating. And at times discouraging. But keep your chin up Bob. Stay positive. and let Dr. Rossi work in his own eclectic way. Or take a vacation! It’s still summer. 🙂

  18. Assuming Rossi’s strategy is to produce so many units at so low a cost that no rival can gain market share, let’s ask:

    1. How many units would constitute an insurmountable initial production?

    2. What is the cost per unit to produce, including capitalizing the factories?

    It Rossi produces 1,000,000 units at $1,000 ea he will need $1 billion in investment capital. Where is he getting $1 billion? IH raised about $11 million in 2015 for its entire range of activities and commitments.

    If he produces only 1,000 units, that is probably not an insurmountable market penetration.

    Perhaps there is a sweet spot somewhere between, but the lower his production, the lower his chance of cornering the market and the higher the per-unit cost to manufacture. Will 10,000 units corner the market? 100,000? Look how much Elon Musk is putting into battery development ($5 billion): that is a commitment to market share.

    There, gang, is some metaphysical and quantitative speculation re numerous speculative angels dancing on the head of a speculative pin.

    1. You have a good point. Rossi has stated they plan to sell
      the power first. So that strategy of selling lots of units still exists, but it
      going to take VERY LARGE amounts of capital and investment. That capital does
      NOT yet exist for LENR. So no question Rossi wants to adopt large scale manufacturing,
      but baby steps must occur first. And while much of the manufacturing can be
      outsourced, large capital outlays will still be required.

      The money and investment for LENR simply does not exist
      at this point in time. Again: the money and investment for LENR does not exist
      right now.

      Large scale manufacture will take 10’s of millions of dollars
      if not more. The “step” of Rossi selling power no doubt will be the first step
      (and this has not yet occurred). Once plants are selling power, then the next
      step of large scale manufacturing can occur, but not before.

      Perhaps a large industrial player could appear on the scene,
      but again this will not occur without capital investments. We thus have to wait
      for large scale investment.

      Rossi has time on his side. Like Apple with their phones
      (or tablets), the FIRST mover advantage is huge in the market place.

      Chrysler Canada was first out the door with their
      Mini-Van. In fact for the past 22 years, they held the #1 spot in Canada. While
      competition been fierce for mini-vans, the “first mover” advantage is often
      what we call a “real estate” grab in the technology industry. Once you “grab”
      that land, then it is rather hard to move one off that space.

      Apple did the same with smartphones. The cell phone
      market was HYPER competitive. Yet Apple walked right into the market with a
      first mover product (the tough phone with software).

      And today there are several companies producing better
      tablets then Apple, but Apple “grabbed” that market first – so other players
      have to pick up the left overs.

      And same goes for Windows – they grabbed that marketplace
      first. So while great desktops are made by say Apple or even free Linux ones, Microsoft
      remains a leader in that market spot. However Microsoft in the phone market is
      doing poorly despite a great phone product (no first mover advantage).

      Rossi can do much the same in regards to LENR. Whoever
      gets a mass produced LENR product into the marketplace will enjoy that “first
      mover” advantage for many years to come – even with STIFF competition. And like
      ink jet printers, you have to purchase re-fills. So why change over from a
      Rossi e-cat you have and purchase a General Electric one? (you have no reason to
      change).

      Regardless, we are still a good number of years away from
      mass produced LENR products. The niche market of Rossi selling the energy
      product (as opposed to selling LENR devices) is the first step Rossi will have
      to take. This should then in turn build up momentum and allow one to garner
      investment dollars.

      You can’t raise money for LENR right now because for most
      if not all of the investment community does not believe in LENR.

      So it really simple that the money for mass produced LENR
      products does not exist. And yes, this is somewhat of a chicken and egg issue!

      Albert D. Kallal
      Edmonton, Alberta Canada

      1. “You can’t raise money for LENR right now because for most if not all of the investment community does not believe in LENR.”

        situation is worse.
        some investor and executives may be aware of LENR, but they know it will not be agreed by their board, their advisors, their control authorities.

        I’ve seen similar problem with restaurant discrimination against disabled.
        Some restaurant rejected disabled people and when asked why, they did not say they disregarded the disabled people, but that it was frightening their clients…

        this is very common.

        in some part of Africa, excision is very common and the strange fact is that the huge majority of men and women, of mothers and fathers, of wife and husband’s, dislike this practice and would love to stop it…
        but they are all convinced that other will force them to do it, that not enforcing the rule will cause problems.

        I could call that second degree stupidity…
        “I’m not stupid, but I have to conform with mainstream stupidity”

  19. rossi and jonp are not the best sources at all as you say, but there are others sources on many subjects.

    about E-cat business, Tom darden public appearance say more than Rossi.
    Mats Lewan have also done some work of inquiry to confirm and correct Rossi.

    Anyway on E-cat there is not so much clear data, but the commitment of Tom darden, Elforsk, who have insider information, make it clear it is credible project in process.

    Brillouin have better staff, but less reference…

    anyway what is happening is not extraordinary as LENR is well documented in science.

    the reason of skeptic skepticism is the desperate belief LENR does not exist.
    remove them this mythology, and Rossi is just the boss of a hightech startup funded by a US tycoon…

    ask to a skeptic if he accept LENR is a real phenomenon , or not :

    if not, laugh. and roll on the floor.

    if yes, ask them why they are not excited about that physics revolution, and possible applications through engineering, one day ?

    and then laugh and roll on the floor.

    now, E-cat is not the only fish in the sea, it is too late to imagine it is fake, but it can simply be unreliable and too expensive…

  20. I don’t really give a lot of weight to “unknown sources” in terms of actual credibility, especially given the rumor mills that surround LENR. The source also only says that it’s in “operation,” not that it’s generating excess power. I tend to believe that Rossi is telling the truth but this doesn’t really change my opinion one way or the other.

  21. If Rossi doesn’t publish enough data about the megawaat plant at the end of the year test he’s going to lose credibility.

  22. You gotta wonder sometimes. Which is more likely a “skam?” Operation Northwoods? Swine flu? 9/11? Project Matterhorn, or LENR? Damned confusing!

  23. LENR will open the door to understanding the unified field theory combining general relativity and quantum mechanics that all science wants to figure out starting from Einstein. .

  24. What history has been made during the last year ?

    What do we have more today, that we didn’t have last year ?

    The only significant achievement I can think of is the start of Tohoku LENR institute, but I am probably be missing something.

      1. You are right, Lugano was October 2014.

        Unfortunately we haven’t heard much from the authors since, hopefully they are seeing some progress in their work.

        1. Right, we have not heard from any important LENR players for a long time, like Storms, Duncan, McKubre, Hagelstein and the Lugano scientists.

          1. It’s all gotten too valuable now; no one wants to give away anything they might be able to monetize.

  25. If he wants privacy why should we track him down? Even if we found out where, should we force our way into the company and demand their findings… wait, this is really Donald Trump right?

  26. As you say, that would not be “polite” but i also think that is a good idea.

    The topic is: He has the right to try to hide their secrets but do we also have the right to try to find them through other channels?

    /joke
    We look for experience paparazzis!
    Is it not about getting industrial secrets but to confirm and clarify some of the premises we have. For example, who is the customer?, where is the 1MW plant?. How many people work with Rossi? Is really Rossi working and sleeping everyday in the container?. What kind of coffe do they trink? XD , XD /joke

  27. How about “Do to others as you would want them to do to you.” Would you want people trying to steal your hard earned ideas and possibly ruin your business?

  28. people who have a budget and are not sure it is nothing, don’t care to check, they know the science is real, because the data are clear.

    the problem is not the evidence, even the bad evidence we observe, when piled make a clear photography.

    the problem is that the one who know it is real either don’t dare to tell their boss, their shareholder, or simply try to do it alone.

    Some today are doing it alone.

    some have done it, like Shell or nasa, and carefully don’t communicate on it.

    some have been fired.

    this is how groupthink is enforced, through self censorship, and if not respected, though terror by mindguard.

    imagine what happened to Elforsk boss when he was attacked by Sylvie Coyaud and its minions… He had bollocks not t flee … most French or US boss would have flee and said he have nothing to do with Rossi.

    the people who have the budget to make good inquiry, good research, manage the money , the company, of others people, so that cannot dare to work on LENR.

    Darden (like carl page) manage his company money with more freedom than usual and have a good insider knowledge of what is happening.

    DIA made a report. who cares?

    NRL and Spawar worked on it.

    the more it is disruptive, the less it is funded.

    http://singularityhub.com/2015/07/14/why-entrepreneurs-not-government-drive-innovation/

    guess why LHC have more money than EmDrive, while they both study possible break in current physics…
    because LHC does not propose already a break like emDrive, and because the LHC discovery will probably be useless, unlike EmDrive confirmation.

    Iter have no usefull ness and cost much more, but it does not propose to change physics.

  29. in fact no.

    Journalist where at Oxford and they heard things tha could embarrass politician.
    they heard things that could both support LENR or embarass important people.
    same in milan or in Neuchatel, or in padua…

    don’t ask why nobody say LENR is good science, but ask why nobody say a dozen of top company executiv, agencies, universities, support and finance what is supposed to be scam and pseudo science.

    they were there and they did not say anything..

    if the Wright Bro where flying in their small city, like in 1900 the media wil receive reports from their journalist and will dump the tape.

    only small blog would talk of it.

  30. There are many ways to view the world in order to develop a sense of what is real.

    One is to see the world as chains of causation. That view is highly dependent on the starting point of the chains. If a starting point fails, or can be doubted, the entire string fails. That is the view that you appear to be using above.

    Another view is to see the world as a network of causation. In that view, all elements and all their interactions must be accounted for in considering what is real.

    The chains of causation view is of course simply a filtered subset of the network of causation view. The filtering, while highly useful as a sort of shorthand, is necessarily limiting as a mode of discerning reality. The filtering is always necessarily subjective, in the sense that choices have to be made about which chains to focus on in the network. Those choices are in turn always influenced by a person’s pre-conditioned values.

    If a person does or does not want to believe in something, they will filter for the chains of causation that support that view, ignoring the rest of the network.

    If you have a model for the full set of phenomena and relationships involved with LENR, that points to significant doubt about the reality of LENR (or the Rossi Effect), please provide it.

    1. As you say;- “If a person does or does not want to believe in something, they will filter for the chains of causation that support that view, ignoring the rest of the network.”
      I entirely agree.
      Prior to the last global financial crash, a whole lot of clever people were inventing new financial ‘products’ backed up by various models and formula to justify why what they were selling was good value and worthy of a triple ‘a’ investment rating.
      In spite of what common sense would tell us regarding the ‘chains of causation’ as you put it. the market chose the flowery language of ‘sub prime mortgages’ instead of calling them ‘loans that little hope of being repaid’, They were conned into believing that by lumping them together into ‘structured investment vehicles’ , a name which implies strength and mobility of assets, the whole worthless lot would become something of proven value.
      In a way they were right. The ‘structured investment vehicles’ carried the debt away from those who originally incurred it to those who were duped into taking it on. History records they lost almost all of it.

      The whole point is, never let flowery language and empty promises override common sense.
      Flowery language and promises are fine so long as it’s backed up by proven performance. If it’s backed up by just more of the same, it has no value at all.

      1. Yeah, but…

        Your story about sub-prime loans is still in the metaphor of “backed up”, as in chains of causation, instead of “surrounded by”, as in networks of causation.

        I appreciate your urging caution with respect to LENR, however, your original post verges on (or crosses right over into) casting doubt out of some personal need to make some type of impression on other people.

        Doubt is both a “dampener of enthusiasm” and a stifler of creative imagination. It’s very difficult to construct a view of the future, when our assumptions about the present wobble.

        It’s my view that if the information surrounding the Rossi Effect is taken as a whole, and placed in the context of a network of causation, then maintaining a dampening, stifling doubt about that information, based on asserting certain chains of causation is a needless and harmful sacrifice of both good feeling energy and opportunities for creative insight.

        We can split hairs and say of course there is some small probability that everyone has been hallucinating, and/or that some massive number of errors of judgment have been made, and/or that Rossi is an extremely clever influencer, however, that by itself only serves the purpose of those who NEED to have doubts.

        You’re welcome to it, but foisting that on others arouses in me step 6 in my original post.

  31. I was referring to update #22 of the “plant watch” thread plus that 7Kw comment. As you say, nothing directly from the man.

  32. We can only arrive at this conclusion based on the witness
    and testimony of others. Remember, science is an act of faith on your part.

    There are many people today who don’t believe we went to the moon. We can only accept on an act of faith that we did go to the moon. Of
    course one will use collaboration of history and evidence to support ones position, but such a position is STILL an act of faith on your part. You thus have to accept the witness and testimony of others.

    And same goes for the wright brothers. Did they really
    fly on that day in 1903? Again, it is an act of faith on your part to accept the past witness and testimony of others on this matter.

    So going to the moon, or that Wright brother’s flight,
    your belief in these events is STILL an act of faith on your part.

    In fact your belief in near ANY science fact is based on
    the PAST history and witness and testimony of something you read from a book. Your acceptance of that science is thus an act of faith on your part. People somehow often try to pass science off as something other than a system based on acts of faith. People are shocked to realize that science is in fact a faith based system. And it based on past-tense witness and testimony of other people!

    As for Rossi?

    I think the best evidence of a working LENR device is the
    3rd party report. Rossi was not present each day, and the witness
    and testimony of those who conducted the test seem credible. That test ran without Rossi for 30 days and the conclusions are a very compelling witness and testimony. And Rossi stated that such a test was occurring, and again this was the case.

    >Is it on the basis of the subsequent sale to the “secret military customer” ?

    I agree this is a red flag. However the details of this purchase
    are not clear. Did the military purchase, but Rossi not deliver? There is some “wiggle” room on these claims, but they are less than ideal.

    All we can do is look at Rossi’s claims and statements.
    And then back up such claims with evidence which in term will allow you to make a conclusion as to Rossi’s claims being credible or not.

    I don’t think the issue is does LENR exist – we have a
    LOT of independent people as credible witness that support and have provided evidence that LENR is real.

    So the only really remaining issue is does Rossi have
    what he claims to have? He stated that a company purchased rights to the e-cat, and sure enough it turned out to IH. Rossi stated he was building a really nice new plant, and pictures showed this to be the case (much much nicer then the crude plant and public demonstrated in 2011). And in fact that 2011 was a public demonstration!

    So such claims of building a plant, being purchased by IH
    so on all came to be and thus for the most part such claims by Rossi are credible (and evidence exists to support these claims).

    ONE BIG issue is that outside of Rossi, we have LITTLE evidence
    as to how well Rossi’s plant is working. In this regards, we are relying “mostly” on Rossi’s witness and testimony. So yes, this is a problem!

    So yes, we are placing a lot of “eggs” in the one Rossi basket!

    At the end of the day, like near all science, you are
    making an act of faith. In the case of Rossi, for many to accept Ross’s claims will require a 3rd party utilizing such a reactor in a commercial setting. I VERY much accept this is the #1 issue holding back acceptance of Rossi’s claims.

    So for me, based on my knowledge and evidence I thus accept
    Ross’s claims. Many people are not ready to make such an act of faith until such time better evidence exists for them.

    So like going to the moon, the Wright Brothers or Rossi,
    all require an act of faith on your part.

    And for many people they are rightfully uncomfortable to
    ONLY accept Rossi’s claims – the instant others can come forward and support and verify Ross’s claims will go a long way in this regards.

    We really at the point in time in which you either accept
    Rossi’s claims, or you don’t. A good portion of Ross’s claims have come to be (along with supporting evidence).

    So Ross’s has a reasonable degree of success and track
    record in his public claims.

    Rossi’ has spoken very well of the performance of the
    plant. Since many of Rossi’s claims have come to be, then it is reasonable to assume that claims in terms of performance are credible, but they are still just claims without good supporting evidence.

    Regards,
    Albert D. Kallal
    Edmonton, Alberta Canada

    1. I have to agree with your logic there Albert and I accept that different people require different levels of verification to justify their faith, to the extreme end where some people require none at all.
      I suppose my point is how much evidence people need to support their faith. I have to accept that this is different for all people.
      The fact that the Mormon religion has millions of followers would indicate that for some people, neither evidence nor logic are required to justify their faith. They are happy to hold a particular ‘faith’ based on what just one person said.
      My argument is that in the case for a working e-cat with a guaranteed COP of 6, we have pretty much reached a similar level of verifiable evidence and logic.
      Although I was originally very enthusiastic and supportive for one whole year when all this started, that enthusiasm and support dropped away rapidly when each foundation stone of my belief was chipped away by subsequent inconsistencies, obvious errors in measurements, loss of support of various supporters and partners, contradictions and non delivery of promised milestones.

      Had my belief been based on hope or blind conviction, I would still be believing, but alas, I have placed the same demands for verification of veracity on Mr. Rossi’s endeavors as other people have constantly placed on mine over my whole long life.
      Constant non delivery on promise and non verification of process indicates non existence of results, or the ability to produce them.

      In this particular matter, my faith is now at an all time low..

  33. I guess by “reproducible test” I meant a test having publicly known parameters and configuration etc. that scientists can take and perform. Obviously if Brillouin and Rossi have precommerical products they are able to reproduce the effect.

  34. if you analyse groupthink theory you see that dissenting data are actively ignored.

    I mean, energy is used not to have access to informations.

    i don’t say to hide, just not to see.

    moreover there is mindguard like Sylvie Coyaud, Luc Allemand, Ethan Siegel, Huizenga, Parks, to motivate people to self-censor, and lower fans to harass dissenters.

    http://www.princeton.edu/~rbenabou/papers/Groupthink%20IOM%202012_07_02%20BW.pdf

    I have seens my engineering school organizing Web design course based on scientific controversies like LENr and EmDrive, and I was shocked to see
    – that their level of information was very weak (not much more than extremetech articles… not even NextBigFuture level), but not so negative
    – that they were not interesting at all to update their site, after I explained them what was happening, and describing my personal network around LENR

    it is strange because in 30 minutes I can get most recent data on LENR… (partly because of an activist called AlainCo who gather all)

  35. Why we would we want to help Gary Wright? No good would likely come from early publication of who the customer is or where the test is happening. The most likely outcome would be for Gary Wright or someone like him to sic the local government on the customer for operating a non-licensed nuclear reactor or some other such garbage.

        1. Nothing official yet. Rossi won’t comment on the overall COP but does say the plant goes into self sustain mode when the COP is over 100. We just don’t know how long ssm lasts, and the COP of the plant when it is not in ssm.

          1. I’m cautiously optimistic about Rossi’s work but from your answer we don’t yet know if his invention is useful.

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