Will LENR Reach Mass Adoption Faster than any Technology? (Mats Lewan)

The following post was submitted by Mats Lewan

You often hear that new technologies spread to reach global mass adoption at an ever increasing speed — from electricity, telephones, radio and television to PCs, mobile phones and the web.

The hypothesis seems accurate and also reasonable, given that the world is getting increasingly connected in several ways, both with regard to communications, transportation and commerce, but it’s actually not correct.

You can read about such a claim in an article on The Vox from 2014, and also how it was debunked by Gizmodo.

One reason for this mechanism not to be so simple is that different technologies rely on different conditions and requirements.

The refrigerator was an invention that basically only had to be manufactured and distributed. Electricity and telephones required deployment of new wide area networks, whereas, radio and television only needed wireless networks with long reaching transmitter stations.

Cellular phones needed a much denser wireless network, and the internet, if you count from the first message over the Arpanet, needed a whole lot of new thinking in order to arrive at the idea of www, and then develop from there.

So where do we put LENR based technologies in that picture?

Assuming that we arrive at a validated heat producing technology within a year, huge interest will arrise and it shouldn’t take much time for scientists to make all kinds of measurements and arrive at a theory that describes the phenomenon in detail.

At that point you have access to an energy source with a fuel consumption potentially shrunk by a factor one million compared to chemical fuels. That corresponds to a jump of 40 years in computing technology, based on Moore’s Law. And there you have the incentive for investing engineering resources to solve problems and develop applications.

The most obvious application is water heating, and even though we know the difficulties to get the technology certified for consumer use, consumer devices for this purpose could not be far off.

Such an application would be similar to the refrigerator that went mainstream in the US in less than ten years in the 1930’s. 90 years later this process could be significantly accelerated. What you need is manufacturing, distribution and a service network.

What happens next contains many unknowns. Possibilities of direct conversion to electricity. Strategies of the car industry. Desperate competition from other technologies. Governmental policies on taxes and regulation.

But essentially, compared to other recent technologies that have reached mass adoption, deployment is straight forward. No need for new networks. No new infrastructure.

What will be needed is innovation. Lots of innovation. To scale the technology down, and up. To develop new applications. The time scale is unpredictable, but again, there’s no basic need for infrastructure.

Given the emergency with which the world needs a clean energy source — almost as in a classic disaster movie — and given the potential cost savings LENR could bring to many industries, I can see no reason to believe that LENR based technology in its basic forms couldn’t reach global mass adoption very fast, maybe faster than any other technology so far.

Which would mean about 15 years from now.

Mats Lewan is a reporter for the Swedish science and technology magazine Ny Teknik, and author of the book An Impossible Invention

  • atlantis71

    citing from a report available online “The scope for unprecedented growth rates of a breakthrough energy technology (BET) might be based on the fact that the so-called ‘built-environment’ in mature industrial societies is
    inherently different or increasingly becoming so from that of societies that
    saw the rise of hydrocarbons and even the more recent deployment of renewable
    energy technologies such as wind and PV. The built-environment
    is not only made of the technological infrastructure and of the economic system,
    but also of the general interests and values of the society, the policy
    imperatives of the government, the ability to produce innovation, etc. Mature
    or post-industrial societies are becoming increasingly different socially, economically, and technologically from what they
    were before the IT revolution. This could well mean that the speed at which a BET could progress from prototype
    to market diffusion might be unprecedented in the history of energy
    technologies. As a result, a widespread commercialization of a transformational
    technology may not take decades as it took to previous energy technologies. In
    other words, the market diffusion of breakthrough energy technologies in the 21st
    century cannot be projected by looking at the current and past energy technology
    status quo.” You can find the report here

  • Albert D. Kallal

    Once the jump from the “lab” or testing occurs, I much agree that the speed of adoption of this technology could be VERY rapid.

    I recall when the DVD came out, it was the FASTEST adopted product in consumer history.

    I much think that LENR devices could see adopting rates higher and faster then that of say digital cameras.

    Recall in 2001, digital cameras were really cool, very pricy, and much a status symbol. By 2008, they had already flooded the market! The adoption of digital cameras was AMAZING and took really LESS then 10 years from WHEN affordable units reached the marketplace.

    As pointed out, it really comes down to a correctly packaged LENR device that can be sold in large numbers. Keep in mind this may not be so easy! Today we can jump on a plane and fly to far away places with amazing ease.

    However we don’t have practical flying cars. There is the possibly that controlling LENR in a useful commercial fashion may NOT be easy! This will “hinder” a very widespread and easy adoption of this technology. We don’t have that “easy” control system and knowledge of LENR as of yet.

    One should assume that these issues of “controlling” LENR reactions will be solved.

    However, keep in mind that mankind today can build planes that fly. However we do NOT have practical flying cars. So let’s hope LENR falls into the practical flying concept, and not that of flying cars!

    ****IF**** control” issues of LENR are solved, then the mass huge adopting of LENR will occur at BLISTERING rates. However, until such time this controlling issue is “solved”, then LENR WILL remain relegated to the lab and JUST a wee bit beyond the test stage like Rossi is at now.

    Regards,
    Albert D. Kallal
    Edmonton, Alberta Canada
    [email protected]

  • builditnow

    Do you think there were 7 million “spare” trained engineers of any sort in 1910?
    How many trained aero engineers were there in 1910?
    Heavier than air flight sparked the imagination and involved a lot more people than just the existing trained engineers to get involved.
    Farmers made planes, all sorts of people got involved.
    A couple of bicycle mechanics made the first successful plane.

    You don’t think LENR is at least as exciting as heavier than air flight?
    You don’t think young kids will get excited about it?
    You don’t think retired people will get excited about it?

    You see, once the public finally wakes up to the possibilities, they will, so to speak, “go nuts” about LENR.
    Right now, they are all lulled into sleep by football, TV, video games, a shut down media and a shut down science media, etc. They go online to check and wikipedia tells them LENR / Cold Fusion is junk science, so they go back to sleep. They say to themselves, “this is too good to be true, time for a nap”.

    I agree, if the general public never wakes up, LENR could go nowhere.
    But, what if they do wake up?
    I’m talking about when the general public wakes up.
    A billion is easily possible, when and if they wake up.

  • Mike Ivanov

    I would not call them “conspiracies”. Just slowness, bureaucracy, etc. Parkinson’s laws describes them well for many years already.
    Also, it looks like what such things as small groups of smart decision makers who can take proper directions do not exist in politic domain anymore. They still can be in corporations, but not in political business. It means what governments are functioning now as stupid Markov chain automates. European Union gov is a nice example of that.
    And it means what any big changes would be blocked by such automates until the core logic will fail completely.

  • Omega Z

    Much of the Standard Model isn’t well understood or complete.
    Which is why I question those who always claim that something goes against the Standard Model.

    How do they know? Until it is completely understood and explained, They don’t know.