Thoughts on LENR Rollout (Omega Z)

The following post by Omega Z was first posted on this thread (lightly edited for spelling and punctuation)

OK, Many times I make posts that attempt to tamp down expectations.

Like Heating all the roads & highways: theoretically possible, though realistically unobtainable for many reasons.
E-cat powered cars: at least 20 years out. The technology just isn’t there & no matter how you crunch the numbers, It doesn’t work. Note that I also find battery powered vehicles questionable in it’s present technological state.
However, The E-cat, tho a long way from a fully mature technology, is fast approaching a maturity level where it can be used for fixed location heat & soon to follow electricity generation (a couple years).

As to the DECC [UK’s Secretary of the Department Energy and Climate Change] response, This is at least the 2nd I’m aware of from them & maybe the 3rd. It provides enough detail that we know that they are at least aware of LENR & probably watching more closely than we imagine. In fact, anyone paying attention knows there are MANY Countries watching closely.

It indicates the situation will or could change if/when it is peer reviewed by those in Mainstream Science with what appears to be a caveat, or If/When mass produced.

Well, we’re back to: The Market will decide — because until then, mainstrea Science isn’t going to accept it.
Sooo, if at the end of a year, if Rossi/Industrial Heats pilot plant proves viable, additional plants will be produced. DECC will start funding research to better understand LENR.

Too late, because at that point, industry will be pumping billions into research, development and marketing. It will be the scientists employed by industry or contracted by them in universities that will lead the way. They will progress far faster then any government funded research.

One thing that has been posted many times by many people that I agree with 100%. If just 1 Country has LENR, all others will jump on board or fall to their own peril.

  • Omega Z

    The Gulf politics has to do with a few who want to resurrect antiquated Empires. Oil or not wont change anything.

    Electric cars will take decades to become the primary form of transportation. Battery production is slow to increase & the battery technology is still at a primitive stage & expensive. Thus the slow uptake.

    Aside from that, Home versions of E-cats wont produce much electricity(Likely not enough to power itself). Even if Hot cats are allowed in the home(This is questionable) You would need at least a 15Kw system in order to have a 2Kw output charger. Local grid power would be more efficient & much cheaper. Fact. It’s all about cost or most people would already be off grid if it weren’t.

    It has little to do with self sustaining, But everything to do with heat to electric conversion. Possibly 20% to 25% at most. You need much larger systems to obtain conversion range of 30% to 50%.
    Also, Don’t over look the fact that E-cats need power even during self sustain mode. The Hot cat requires 300 watts & if your planning on electrical product, There will be other energy drain for pumps etc..

    The Hot cat will provide advantages as it would allow smaller power plants located near point of use reducing the need for a large grid & could possibly be more efficient then the mega power plants that are centralized today. Due to E-cats nature, they probably wont be cost effective as individual home systems other then for base load heating in the winter. The technology just doesn’t exist at this time for other needs in an economical fashion & likely wont be for many years.

    • Mats Hilmersson

      What make you think breakthrough development is not likely, considering how poor this phenomenon is understood and how little engineering work is put into the field this far?

      • Omega Z

        As to electrical conversion, that is a well known science & is limited by Carnot cycle. Nothing will change that. I also have no doubt that LENR will advance & improve, But it will still require energy to operate/monitor & control(300 watts). This is required even when in self sustain mode.

  • Omega Z

    Actually, the Saudi’s are preparing for conflict with Iran. Not of their making, But of the Iranians attacking the Saudi’s. This has been brewing for a long time. Note the Iranians have similar designs on the region as ISIS. Resurrecting the Persian Empire & the Saudi’s are a major impediment

    The Saudi’s see the hit on Russia’s Oil profits as a bonus because they have supported Syria & Iran. The Saudi’s tactics are 2 pronged. Deprive the Iranians of income by driving down price & to take away market share that will reduce Iran’s long term sales as well.

    Ask any business person. Customers are Loyal. Obtaining new customers is expensive. Every customer that the Saudi’s can take from Iran during this period, will likely stay with the Saudi’s as long as they can guarantee supply. Customers primary concern is a steady supply & the Saudi’s will guarantee competitive prices. The Saudi’s are playing the long game.

    While many think the goal is reducing U.S. production, The Saudi’s see the rise in U.S. production in a positive light. It’s enabling them to do what they are doing. Reducing their foes income both now & long term.

    The Issue of Oil/Cars & LENR has nothing to do with LENR itself, It’s that technology for conversion of heat to electricity is forever limited by the Carnot Limits. And it’s not that it can’t be done or that technology can & will improve, You & I just could never afford to own what would basically be a shipping container with a drivers cab.

    You see, The most optimistic outlook would require a minimum 30 E-cats plus all the conversion apparatus & the most probable would be about 60 E-cats. Even if E-cats greatly improve, The conversion system not so much. It will be excessive in size & costs.

    An Alternative is Batteries, Or a synthetic fuel with a much higher energy density & cheaper then Oil. Both require major technology breakthroughs.

    • BroKeeper

      Thus giving a greater urgency commercializing the E-Cat: to take away war powers from despots.

      • Omega Z

        BroKeeper

        E-cat energy will have no effect on the situation. The Iranian situation as with a few others involves antiquated thinking of the empire glory days. In the middle east you have those who want to resurrect the Persian & Ottoman empires. It has nothing to do with Oil or other resources.

        • BroKeeper

          Without resources to sell for money which feeds power then no fantasies can be realized.

  • Ophelia Rump

    Boys that plane left years ago. This is 1911.

    1911
    Burgess Co. becomes the first licensed commercial aircraft manufacturer – See more at: http://www.burnsmcd.com/Aviation-Special-Report/Article/Timeline-of-Commercial-Aviation#sthash.BMb0QGrn.dpuf

  • Omega Z

    You know U.S. Oil inventories(That’s waiting to be processed) are around 380 million barrels & still climbing. Between the U.S. Emergency reserves & the Oil company inventories, The U.S. has over a Billion barrels in holding.

    Aside from that, LENR has nothing to do with the Oil prices. It’s supply exceeding demand & the Saudis wont cut production. It also doesn’t have anything to do with Saudis trying to shut down shale oil. Obviously, as soon as prices recovered, Shale oil would flow very soon after. It’s about middle eastern politics. Saudi’s verses Iran, Syria, and Russia by extension due to their supporting of Syria. The Saudi’s are fast building a Major Military for an expected future confrontation with Iran.

    Back to LENR & Oil. LENR & cars are not practical & wont be for a long time. That leaves Battery power charged by LENR Generators. That to is limited. Elon Musk’s Gigabattery plant at a cost of 6 Billion plus tax breaks etc will produce 500K batteries a year by 2020. There’s over 1 Billion cars in the World. The question we need to ask is can we transition before Oil is exhausted or to expensive for anyone to afford. Not if Big Oil will be hurt.

  • builditnow

    At the current rate of LENR / Cold Fusion development, Omega Z’s predictions are about right.

    We are in the equivalent period that the Wright brothers were in after having first flown in 1903 until they demonstrated flight over Paris in 1909 (I’m remembering the dates so I could be a little off). Just 5 years later 1914 a Frenchman bought a plane to Australia and demonstrated aerobatic maneuvers to huge crowds paying an expensive ticket to see the performance.
    Between 1903 and 1909, very little happened and heavier than air flight could have failed to advance for many years.
    Between 1909 and 1914 huge rapid advances occurred because millions of people went to work to develop airplanes. By the first world war there were crude fighter planes.

    Likewise, the speed of adoption of LENR / Cold Fusion is largely dependent on the average person being aware of it and “believing it is real”. This could happen, this year, or in 50 years, or even never.

    Once the average person believes LENR / Cold Fusion is real, the world will change rapidly at a speed that could very likely shock us all. Most LENR / Cold Fusion researchers and developers have given up on peer rearview science community as being able to evaluate the research in a balanced way. Most now believe that a product on the shelf is the only that the average person will believe it is real.

    Rossi could become the first multi trillionaire. Good for him, he deserves it for sticking it out, taking all the abuse and despite all the challenges and odds, making it happen.

    • PappyYokum

      I think the principles of powered flight were understood long before the Wright brothers flew at Kitty Hawk and others were working on their own versions and working gliders had been sailing for a while. The advance that got the Wright brothers off the ground was a better weight to power ratio of the engine they used. ICE technology had not been around that long either by 1903.
      Here with LENR, however, seems to be a phenomenon that is hard to reproduce to a degree where there are practical applications, which is also not entirely understood. At least, generally speaking. Maybe Rossi understands it, but nobody outside his circle seems to.
      Speed of adoption of LENR technology will accelerate as soon as it is demonstrated to be cheaper, yet as safe and dependable as alternative technology.
      Airplanes never became widely owned by individuals, even 112 years after one first flew. They stayed the property of governments, transportation companies and the rich because personal transportation via the automobile remained cheaper, safer, and could be used in most bad weather. Aircraft, however are expensive and their use remains heavily regulated by the government. The flying car for the masses is going to remain a dream for the foreseeable future.
      ICE technology, on the other hand, is ubiquitous and comes in different forms. That is probably what is going to keep LENR a curiosity, if anything. It reliably turns stored chemical energy into kinetic energy. LENR, so far, presumably turns stored atomic energy into heat energy. When it does that as cheaply, reliably, as ICE tech does it will gain a market just like the gasoline engine displaced the work of the horse and the steam engine.

      • Pekka Janhunen

        When I was a teenager, air pollution due to cars was in the news. I remember thinking back then, as a sci-fi sounding idea, that maybe one day in the future the only stuff that comes out of the exhaust pipe is just H2O and CO2. That would be an ultimate dream, I thought.
        The dream was actually realised soon when cat-converters came to market. What I hadn’t known however was that CO2 would also turn out to be a problem when produced in a massive scale.
        Lessons? For sure, it’s hard to predict the future of technology. And perhaps that we western people tend to be problem centric, when one problem is solved by intelligent people, we get worried about the next one even if it’s order of magnitude smaller. It’s good: dissatisfaction is the guarantee of progress.

        • Omega Z

          We merely trade one problem for another. Aerosols(Steam) cause Global Warming. Obviously, I have a different view. I consider it part of natures cooling system.

        • bachcole

          CO2 is not a problem. It is a solution to too little CO2 in the atmosphere. God/Nature is solving that problem with oceanic warming and human burning of fossil fuels. (:->) And just in time, before we dipped below that 150 ppm line of death for every living creature on Earth.

          I will bet dollars to donuts that most environmentalists and AGW advocates think that CO2 is just plain poison (as in “bad”) and that less than 150 ppm is no big deal.

      • Omega Z

        “Maybe Rossi understands it”

        -Better- then those outside his circle.
        Rossi is still working on the theory. Everything is still under R&D and Rossi is still learning as can be witnessed by the pilot plant & the issues they have to resolve concerning it.

        I believe the Big issue is the Hot cat. I know we’ve seen it at high temps & stable and according to the math, It should be able to operate at COP>10. However, Rossi has indicated it has yet again changed since the TIP test.

        Note, We have only seen it in a dry state. Just speculating, But, I think when it is wet/under load, Problems arise. I can only assume it is a quenching issue or control issue under load. Anyway, If it’s design continues to change, There has to be a problem of some sort or they would be investigating electrical generation. Not redesign.

    • fact police

      We are in the equivalent period that the Wright brothers were in after having first flown in 1903 until they demonstrated flight over Paris in 1909 (I’m remembering the dates so I could be a little off).

      The 1903-5 flights at Kitty Hawk were private affairs, and the Wrights limited photography. They are more comparable to the experiments Rossi did with Focardi between 2007 and 2010, as written up on Rossi’s web site.

      The first public demonstration the Wrights performed was in 1908, and all skeptics present were convinced in 110 seconds or so.

      Rossi’s first public demonstration was Jan 15, 2011, but it had more limited success.

    • mcloki

      With the internet the Wright brothers first flight would have happened at 3pm, Uploaded to the internet by 4, Seen by 8 million people world wide by the end of dinner. LENR will spread immediately/ Look how many iPhones have been sold in the last 9 years.

      • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

        no.

        afte their flight, 8 million people will see on youtube. 7million will think it is a fake.

        900000 will look on wikipedia who will say it is a fake

        90000 will look on SciAm who say it is a job with fabled performance

        http://invention.psychology.msstate.edu/inventors/i/Wrights/library/WrightSiAm1.html

        9000 will think it might be true, but seeing no press covers the subject will conclude it is fake
        900 will post on their favorite forum and will be bashed by mindguard, and all science forum will declar that pseudo science and cause to be banned.

        90 will gather on fringe forum
        9 will create fringe forum like Wright-world, wright-forum, @wright_dreams, pure flying news, new transport times…
        1 will call Wright brothers to make a replicate.

        information is not the question, it is ability to be convinced, and to convince.

        the strength of groupthink is to establish a terror against dissenters, and feeling of invulnerability to mindguards, that create the illusion of a consensus.

  • Gerard McEk

    It is impossible to predict how quickly LENR will develop, it is like looking into a crystal ball. We all have great hopes the LENR science becomes mainstream and there are signs that it may happen this year. If Parkhomov’s tests are replicated and if the 1 MW plant proves doing well, mainstream science and media may pick up. Rossi seems quit optimistic lately so I have the feeling it can happen in 2015.
    Generating electricity with a LENR reactor only happens if the COP exceeds 10 or so and even then it may take a while before it can be demonstrated. We do not know far the different groups in the world are progressed in their development. As I said, a you need crystal ball for LENR, maybe filled with Ni and LiAlH4…..

  • Bob

    A bit off topic, but it certainly would help some. Has anyone heard about the “question and answer” project that the authors of the Lugano test were to have. My understanding was that a list of valid, realistic questions was being collected and was to be submitted to the authors, who agreed to attempt to answer them. Was this list being collected on Vortex-L / Ged Rothwell?

    Has anyone heard of any progress on this? Perhaps Frank can make a few inquiries of his contacts.

  • BroKeeper

    Agreed, Omega Z, it will need only one domino to move the rest.

    • Andreas Moraitis

      Unfortunately, LENR would not help the states who currently generate most of their GNP by oil production and sales. The governments of these states should wake up as soon as possible and initiate development programs that open up other sources of revenue to their countries. In the interest of global stability one can only hope that the low oil price will foster a change of views, even if most administrations have presumably no idea of LENR and their potential economical impact.