Rossi on Replication and Competition

It’s clear that Andrea Rossi is paying attention to what is going on with the attempts by some experimenters to replicate the effect. He has commented positively on the work of Dr. Alexander Parkhomov and seems to be pleased that the “Rossi effect” can be demonstrated to be real by others. I suppose that would be something gratifying to any scientist with a controversial claim that had been widely criticized and disbelieved.

Rossi was asked a question on the Journal of Nuclear Physics today about replication efforts:

“In this days when the Rossi Effect seems to be almost easy to replicate (even if in its raw essence) I wonder how much your secret catalyst is a well kept secret. Do the people of your team know it?”

Rossi’s response:

Andrea Rossi
January 14th, 2015 at 6:37 AM
Marco Serra:
There is a very big difference between the replication of the patented effect and the construction of an industrial plant, a difference that takes years of enormous work, a very difficult one. Sooner or later, obviously, this gap will be filled up by the Competition, but n the meantime our team will have reached an economy scale that will make the competition not that much convenient. This is the strategy.
Warm Regards,
A.R.

Rossi and Industrial Heat obviously realize that the LENR phenomenon — which could revolutionize energy production — once widely accepted as real, will generate intense interest and competition, and they are counting on their head start in technological development surrounding the E-Cat to give them a lead in the marketplace. Their assumption seems to be that mass production at low cost will discourage the competition, but I am not so sure that it will. There will always be people asking themselves how they can improve on someone else’s product or manufacturing process, and I expect we’ll see the same competitive forces play out in the LENR field that we have seen in any other industrial field.

I find it interesting that here Rossi refers to the ‘patented effect’. We know that Rossi has an Italian patent, but nothing elsewhere.

  • mytakeis

    That leaves the 99%, not the children of rich people, to choose their own high road. A percentage may stray, and act like spoiled rich kids do today. Whatever may transpire, many act in a manner you can admire. The albatross of poverty, no longer dragging down their creativity, humanity.

  • mytakeis

    it’s up to each person’s integrity, discipline, and choices – my belief is given the chance, most people will choose their own high road.

  • Peter Selberg

    My thoughts exactly 🙂

  • Chris, Italy

    Yup their only bet is to keep up the lead in competition. Their biggest risk is that of some dude coming up with a completely new, much better approach.

  • psi2u2

    One important upshot of the open source movement – including Wikipedia, with all its warts and flaws – is that it has disproven the “law” of classical economics that people will only work for pay. They will work for all kinds of reasons, including social approval.

    • bachcole

      I agree 99.9%. But this is not a good reason to toss the money economy or the profit motive, at least not just yet. We need humanity to grow up first, and that will take quite some time.

  • Axil Axil

    In the long run, Brillouin’s low energy nuclear reaction technology will beat out Rossi’s Hot cat reactor design. But there needs to be some design upgrades to the Brilouin’s current approach. A LENR TRISO fuel pellet design should be invented. Like the Hot-Cat tube design, this pellet should be a completely self contained unit including nickel or tunstun micro powder and the fuel AlLiH4 just like Rossi’s alumina reactor core tube.

    The multi layered TRISO spherical pellet is a layered design featuring an inner core of fuel consisting of nickel micro-powder and AlLiH4 surrounded by a covering of alumina. Next, a thin coating of yttrium stabilized zirconium oxidecovers this core, then follows a thin layer of pyrolytic carbon (PyC) to confine hydrogen, followed by a ceramic layer of SiC whose function is to further confine hydrogen at elevated temperatures and to give the TRISO particle a high degree of structural integrity, This LENR spherical pellet is about the size of a queue ball where each layer of the composite is doped to be electrically conductive to provide electrical heating of the alumina core.

    As in the current Brillouin design, a very short but powerful electric pulse heat the pellet pile in their bed where some hundreds of thousands of particles take advantage of economies of scale the the utilities love so much. This pellet can operate at 1400C and is used to retrofit existing nuclear and fossil fuel generating stations using existing pumps and generators to feed the existing grid using the existing grid interconnect power line network.

    Now which design is more cost effective, 600,000 hot cats and there associated micro processor controls or a nuclear station like 20 gigawatt centralized LENR power station with a 600,000 pebble bed of dumb high temperature TRISO pellets.

  • LilyLover

    Mixing together the great period from 1776 to 1845; less great period from 1846-1945; whatever period of 1946-1975; bad period from1980-2000 and

    abysmally immoral period from 2001-Present day is a wrong thing to do.
    We were once great. Our greatness ended in the 1950s. Now we are the “top-parasite” hence others would like to be us. This does not mean we are better – it means others are getting infected with wannbe-parasite-disease. But when everyone wants to be parasite, none can!! Hence Robotics for work; Earth for food; people for pleasure – is the way of the future!!

    • bkrharold

      Perhaps it is time to put aside notions of nationalism and exceptionism. What does it mean to be in a rich country with millions of homeless children, and millions more working several jobs but not able to earn a decent living wage? No we have been sold a bill of goods. The e-cat will be a great force for democracy, putting power back where it belongs in the hands of the people

  • clovis ray

    don’t hold your breath, till that happens,

  • clovis ray

    why on gods green earth, would you want to do that, that kinda sreepy, we do not want to hinder Dr, R in anyway, he is our best and fastest hope for a safe reliable device we could count on to deliver the energy we need,

  • LilyLover

    Again,
    knowing the history is prerequisite to outmaneuver it confidently. That’s why
    you are History-reporters (poor at that too) and Rossi is a History-changer.

  • LilyLover

    Mass production and existing giants:

    For example, Xiaomi and Meizu are about to revolutionize mobile phone industry with the upcoming introductions of Ubuntu enabled phones. This is simmering below surface right now, but within two years, Sony and even Samsung will struggle to profitably survive and be forced to bend down to Ubuntu’s demand. Right now neither neither company is on the average-Joe’s mind, although, either of them is poised to be capable to take-over the entire market.

    No, I do not have anything to do with any of those companies.

    I think, Rossi is taking the steps knowing this fully well. He is cutting out the middle men and working with the likes of Meizu to make sure the established Samsung-ish players have a hard time competing. Supply chain management can be made further cheaper when you chop off the
    “management” – directly go to the producers and incentivize them! The industry “experts” will find their expertise obsolete.

    • bachcole

      My computer runs of a descendent of Ubuntu. Does this count? (:->) Will I get a free cell phone and free service?

      Actually this development opens up a greater possibility that I will get some kind of computer virus. People will be working on mobile phone Ubuntu viruses and some will realize that they can easily convert them to attacking computers.

      • LilyLover

        No free service!! Free phone? Perhaps.
        Virus: The best brains collaborate for open source – Like the Porkhomov – for glory, not profits. But in this case, Rossi-like Cannonical is also pretty-much open source. Strong open code is tough to write viruses against. If Linux is good for the Chinese Hackers, it’s safer from most other categories of Virus.

        Think of Ubuntu as having high in-built immunity and other OSes as a frail baby that needs more attention.

        So, convergence with Ubuntu will greatly reduce your virus-problems.

        • Omega Z

          All systems a prone to hacking. Hackers merely target the largest use groups for maximum gain. Linux is starting to look more appealing to them everyday.

          First step in order to have a drastic reduction in being hacked is an entirely new computer architecture. This has been known & manufactures were warned since the early 80’s. Today’s architecture appears as if it was meant to be hacked. No Software or firewall will ever make it safe.

          • bachcole

            Yeah, if I could flick a hardware switch that would set my very own hardware password that was absurdly long and next to impossible to guess, then everything in my system could be protected. Only I would know what the password was and it would be the same for everything. Let’s say something like 20 characters wide and each character could be any number or letter in the alphabet. One chance in 1.336×10^31 of guessing it. The really great news would be that I would only have to memorize one password. Right now I am close to a nervous breakdown whenever I am asked for my password. (:->)

      • psi2u2

        open source operating systems are intrinsically, structurally, less vulnerable to virus attacks, so you are in good hands, Bachole!

    • Ronzonni

      Sorry if it’s off topic but how does basing a phone on Ubuntu LINUX cause the giant phone companies to become unable to compete? What’s the advantage to the typical end user? I’m not arguing with you, I am just curious.

      • psi2u2

        Ubuntu is an open source product – that’s the simple answer.

        You can run your pc off of ubuntu right now via a free download instead of paying $150 US for windows. So far, microsoft has managed to keep its dominance in the home pc market despite this cost disadvantage, but open source has proliferated in other applications and has the intrinsic advantage that it is built to move in a system that allows for innovation and profit while avoiding the high cost of struggle for patent protection and the expense to consumers of excess profits by monopolistic practices such as those employed by microsoft.

        It seems that open source is likely to win in the end for all these reasons.

        • Omega Z

          Android is based on Linux kernel. There will be others.
          Microsoft & Apple can sell their own Phones Etc with their own operating systems & still compete. We are closing in on the end of an era.

          I expect some innovative people will be developing a couple basic bare-bones Linux kernels available from a hub for a small lifetime fee & everything else will be add on apps. For a Fee..

    • Omega Z

      Ubuntu is just a version of Linux. Android is based on Linux kernel. Software is software. Hardware, the cost of manufacturing & Marketing will be the deciding factors here on out.

      There will be gadgetry like scanning diagnostic gimmickry from name brands that people will buy into for a while, But the average person will soon tire of it. Just another thing you’ll pay for & seldom if ever use. This technology is hitting the wall. First clue is when unknowns start arriving.

  • BroKeeper

    However, quite often with initial conceptualized devices the opposite has been true. GE, started by Thomas Edison, had led the light bulbs industry since and kick started other products still in the lead. IH has the potential to maintain the lead if they manage cost, marketing, and R&D responsibly. Remember they are a subsidiary of the savvy Cherokee Investment Partners, a big plus

  • Christina

    Frank,

    1. Won’t the factories making the ecats require its workers to have more education than is currently given in the U.S.A.?

    2. If so, won’t the work force need to be further educated by the company making the ecats?

    Sincerely asked,

    Christina

    • Observer

      Training robots is not hard. Training the people who train robots is more difficult.

    • naysay

      No. I think the education in USA is just right!

    • LilyLover

      No. But if you asked … Won’t the factories making the E-Cats require its workers to have more education than is currently accepted by the U.S. work force?” …Then the answer becomes yes. With high robotization, we won’t lose out to the Chinese based on cost parity / cheap labor etc. but because our work force refuses any kind of hard work, be it physical or educational.

      Like someone said below, programming robots is difficult; replicating robots is not. Companies like amazon have a very complex operation but very siplified tasks for the end-worker or end-user. This “work-flow simplification” allows us to replace thinking (expert/experienced) labor by low IQ cheap labor and later with full robotics. The technological achievement comes from lossless transmission and replication of experience through “work-flow simplification” or code-development. This may sound bad to a skilled
      laborer with plenty of experience but progress necessitates the devaluation of “work-experience” to zero. That’s the reality of it. To some of you it may feel harsh. But to others like me, it’s a path to freedom from “jobs”.

      • mytakeis

        re: devaluation of ‘work experience’ to zero: a bit far fetched but also possible is – Just gather experiences in realms where physical adeptness does not matter. Mega satisfying use of your brain power, and beneficial in ways not duplicating robotic achievements. There are so many universes out there to explore/conquer, why restrain oneself to the physical in ones view of what interesting to do.

    • Omega Z

      There is an abundance of educated people in the U.S.
      Skilled labor on the other hand is in short supply.
      The average age of skilled labor in the U.S. is 58. The younger generation don’t care for skilled jobs. Not so much that they a lazy, but they don’t want to get dirty. Poor babies…

      To be fair, There are plenty among the younger generation who are willing to do skilled trades work, but there is little access to that type education or training. The Federal Government doesn’t support it. They do however provide funding & even Grants to become a lawyer, to study Lady Gaga, Zombies & the Zombie apocalypse among other useless things.

  • bkrharold

    Regardless of the cost, the urgent need for clean sustainable energy is so great that some countries like China India and Japan, will regard it as a matter of national security. Once the commercial ecat is released, the floodgates will open and the race will be on. I cant imagine the new muscular Chinese juggernaut meekly paying royalties to IH or anyone else.

    • LilyLover

      “National Security” is of utmost importance only to the countries that benefit from fractional reserve banking. For poor countries, domestic need trumps “National Security”. To some of them “National Security” is not even as meaningful as the color of their bicycle, and, rightly so. What’s my point here? “…will regard it as a matter of…” is alarmist. They will simply put it in the category of food, water & shelter. “National Security” is way too low on their minds.
      And it’s not going to be “muscular Chinese juggernaut meekly paying royalties”, it’s going to be the “Chinese Dragon honoring it’s promise.” & you can count on that. Oh, and I am not at all being sarcastic here. You’ll see.

    • LilyLover

      I can. The ‘not-meek’ “Chinese Dragon” softly but steadfastedly promised IH that they’ll meet any demand and honor IH’s IP in exchange for fastest possible full scale adoption. I have no proof of this but I have full conviction of this. (I gave you two reasons to look back and laugh at me or to look back and say – how prophetic!)

      • bkrharold

        It really doesn’t matter who manufactures the e-cat, every one manufactured is a win for mankind, and a loss for big oil and corporate control. More power to the Chinese and everyone else who wants to join in. There is no doubt Rossi and IH will be richly rewarded.

  • Observer

    The old fire went from boiling water to putting a man on the moon. The new fire is currently being used to boil water. The amount of application specific R&D yet to be done is immeasurable.

    • mcloki

      That’s great news. because all of that R&D and then engineering to make products will generate untold jobs. It’s a positive.

      • LilyLover

        That’s great news. Because all of that R&D and then engineering to make products will generate enough energy to make robotics ample and cheap and extinguish most of the jobs. It’s a positive.

        • mytakeis

          When you eliminate a job with a robot, I do not think that you cause hardship. Rather you open up to the ‘jobless’ one possibilities to pursue satisfying endeavors, without concern for basic needs. Robots provide basic needs. The resultant freed time then becomes a matter of free choice, how its used by one and all. Hopefully the lust for power and domination and influence retreat into non necessity with the advent of the robot. Isaac A. considered all this.

  • Private Citizen

    We certainly can believe Rossi when he says he has in the works a secret industrial plant capable of production at overwhelming economy of scale. It’s probably completely robotic.

    If you want to overwhelm the competition, disclose, patent, truly independently test and test again until all doubt is erased, take in the massive investment capital waiting for the most disruptive technology in history–now.

    Yeah, yeah, Rossi doesn’t owe anyone anything. That’s all we have left.

  • Dr. Mike

    Frank,
    I agree. There is no way that Rossi has a team in place to set up mass production at such a low cost that no one will try to compete. Also, he will never be awarded a US patent unless he provides the “full-disclosure” details required by patent law. However, it is almost certain that in the future someone else with patent some key element that will produce a better LENR device. Perhaps Rossi and IH can monopolize the market until this happens?
    Dr. Mike

    • Axil Axil

      The world of international global competition is more complicated than that. China took over green energy device production by dumping. China drove the manufactures of solar panels and wind mills out a business worldwide by undercutting and supporting the lowest cost of production for these products.
      The Country that dumps the most will take over the LENR marketplace. Rossi is so lovably naïve.

      • Obvious

        IH has involved the Chinese, so that sort of dumping is likely the business model, wherein nobody will be able to make a cheaper version.

        • Axil Axil

          The LENR reactor design that does not need microprocessor control will dominate the LENR market. These computers are the major cost factor in Rossi’s reactor design.
          Rossi is solving his control problems by computer control. In this is the weakness of his design.

          • Alain Samoun

            I don’t think that microprocessor cost much these days, in my opinion much of the cost will come from heater, pipes and pumps to make the system useful to produce energy – More a plumber problem that anything else.

            • clovis ray

              I agree alan, there is always a need for a good pipe fitter,lol i did that for years, and those are good jobs for the tradesmen of the middle class folks.

          • Obvious

            The difference between the microprocessor-controlled version and an analog version will be like the difference between a 1956 VW Beetle and a new TDI Passat.

      • clovis ray

        hi, axil,
        It not Dr. Rossi call the ip belongs to the very savvy industrial heat, and Cherokee investment ink as brokeeper has already said,

      • Dr. Mike

        Axil Axil,
        I would have to agree that Rossi should be able to observe what has happened in solar and wind technologies to determine just how hard it is to maintain a dominant market position.
        Dr. Mike

    • bachcole

      I see the possibility that the work and understanding that is necessary preparation to mass production is what Rossi is talking about.

      • Dr. Mike

        bachcole,
        I’m not real sure Rossi has a full understanding of LENR and has already done all of the work necessary to get mass production going, but he should have a lead on the world for a little while.
        Dr. Mike

  • bachcole

    I think that the market place is so huge that competition won’t matter until long after Rossi has died of natural causes at the age of 101.

    And then there is the matter of people in garages and small business duplicating the effect and selling small units to home owners.

  • mecatfish

    After all this time I find it harder and harder to believe that there isnt anyone from within a hundred miles of IH that is not following this story. If I lived within a hundred miles of IH, I would be driving there and at least getting a photograph of AR entering or exiting IH. I would also follow him and find out where the plant is. There is a lot of talk about the plant and IH and all the research going on. I have yet to see proof that AR is physically anywhere near IH. My belief is waining because of this.

    • tonglaji

      I hope you mean a hundred miles of the secret plant where AR is supposed to be working on. Because IH as a company, its registered address is in downtown Raleigh. The building is actually Cherokee Investment.

  • LuFong

    I’ve been saying for years that the leap from a demonstrated LENR device to commercial LENR device is in itself a revolution which is why I had a hard time believing Rossi when he said he was ready for the market. Rossi is just now admitting this and as things stand IH/Rossi still does not have a commercial device (earliest in Oct15-Jan16). I will also add that the leap to a mass-produced LENR device is also a revolution. Mass production is difficult–just ask Elon Musk.

    I think Rossi means well but he is not to be believed in these pronouncements.

    • LilyLover

      Just
      ask Samsung how hard it’ll be to stay afloat after Xiaomi and Meizu bring out Ubuntu, despite early start with Tizen. “Complexities” of mass
      production have more to do with artificial laws and vested interests than with
      physical or scientific limitations. The “Chinese” political will, if
      it were a running competition, would always take the gold medal. The new Indian
      leader is also going around the globe to invite “producers” and
      offering reduced hindrances. Once these “complexities” are out the
      “Robotized” factories or licensed 3-D printing can handle E-Cat in a
      way totally dissimilar to building a car.

  • BroKeeper

    I believe once the plant is publicly announced, full mass E-Cat assembly line production and their early customers (we yet to know) will have already been activated for its demand thrust.
    The resulting R&D cash flow infusion will allow greater focus on efficiency and many differing E-Cat applications not previously able like domestic, propulsion, vehicular, electrical power generation, etc.
    Being the first out of the gate will quicken growth at a dizzying rate. Possible Industrial Heat (IH) before long will become a common name like GE, IBM, HP, etc. with power to buy out or merge with other related industries. Competition will emerge but will be trailing behind for quite some time if IH keeps the cost low as Rossi implies. Either way it is a win win for all. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

  • Gerard McEk

    As long as the LENR/CNT (-Cold Nuclear Transmutation- I like the Russian name) theories are not in place, one can never know whether or not the process can be done much more efficiently. It is extremely likely that it can be done more efficiently and therefore it is unlikely that you can stay ahead of the competition, unless Rossi/IH understand the physics behind LENR/CNT.

  • Teemu Soilamo

    I think Rossi is being greedy here. The technology is clearly far-developed enough (a commercial 1 MW plant running at a factory) that ‘spilling the beans’ would NOT discourage hundreds of competitors from entering the race due to the perceived high cost of R&D required to make commercial returns.

    Sure, it’s his baby. But it is not a conventional discovery that it is humane to keep away from the world anymore. Think about it, Rossi is in his late sixties. How much money does he really need? He would still get the credit, the Nobel prize, what have you.

    Even though he says it’s about maturing the technology cause no one else would (yeah, right), I think it’s mostly motivated by money. Sad, really.

    • Christina

      I think that Mr. Rossi definitely wants to fulfill his dream of supplying the Third World with ecats so that people can heat/cool their home, clean their water, and cook without having to gather wood all day.

      I believe that is why he’s making this effort to be secretive. He doesn’t want the money; he want’s the opportunity to help his brothers and sisters in Christ to have better living conditions and that is why he wants to retain his lead in the lern industry: If he can be making profits a few months before any other lenr company, he can use these profits to help the people of the Third World.

      Christina

      • clovis ray

        Your right but you need to include industrial heat to your statement they are the ones in control, of Dr. R ip.

    • clovis ray

      nope, you are wrong, there is no faster way to move this tech than the way I/H is going about it, you forget the ip does not belong to Dr. R. he is only there to do the r/d that all.

      • Teemu Soilamo

        But it was Rossi who decided to go with IH in the first place.

  • Sanjeev

    Their assumption seems to be that mass production at low cost will
    discourage the competition, but I am not so sure that it will

    I’m not sure either. Actually I’m sure this won’t happen.
    By the time IH/Rossi sets up a multi-million $ mass production factory for their application, someone will come up with another application (e.g. desalination, auto) and start selling their own mass produced product. Someone will come up with a novel improvement (e.g. direct electricity from lenr) and will overshadow all other applications and markets.

    Unless Rossi keeps many steps ahead of all (that’s thousands of co.s) and in the field of all applications (thats 100s), his dream of monopoly will be only a dream. If he wants a big share of lenr cake rather than a slice, licensing is the best strategy, but perhaps too much greed is preventing that decision. Anyway, its really great that he decided to go ahead with releasing his tech in the open market in spite of fully knowing that the competitors will be there sooner or later, instead of just patenting it or keeping it secret forever.

    • Mike the Engineer

      Once they have a proven system working in an industrial context, licensing is certainly one way to go, and a good one. In the petrochemicals industry where I work licensing of technologies is a well established and viable procedure.

  • LION

    The Joy for me is that Andrea Rossi working with Industrial Heat is going to fundamentally change the way we produce energy, and thus change the world, because it offers a new beginning, of clean abundant energy for our future. Its a win win situation for everyone involved in L.E.N.R. and Cold Fusion research, because changing peoples perception of what is possible offers new HOPE for the world, and with it new research funds for good scientists and more importantly for people like myself, easier access to Venture Capital.

  • Peter Selberg

    Relying on economy of scale to deter competition is an extremely naive strategy if the secrets sauce becomes widely known. How is IH going to match the manufacturing capabilities of major companies or even governments if for example China joins the race? A lot of clever work has surely gone into the design of the e-cat by then, but within a few years hundreds if not thousands of times as much work would be invested by others as well.

    • MasterBlaster7

      You say this like Rossi doesn’t have retro-patents in place…once the USPTO comes around. The bigger worry is….what other retro-patents are in place that pre-date Rossi.

      • clovis ray

        come on ,you guys,MASTER B is totaly correct, Dr. Rossi is not stupid as some here implies, has any one ever heard of patent pending, and first to market, good grief, no one has duplicated, the rossi effect, if so they would have one on display, the russian has nothing, if he had it would be on display, all just talk, no proof of anything, again no one has the rossi effect, it has never been discovered by anyone if it had we would have it on display, amazing the world, why has this not happened, is because no one has figured out how it works period. Dr. rossi is the only person in the world that has an E-cat that is working under load, he is the only one that has demonstrated his device at least 3 times publicly, and has even continuously gave out his data , to the complete amazement to everyone that thought it was a fraud, so you guys think anyone that comes along can just come out and say hey look i just discovered , anomalous heat reactor, and i will now patent it and take it to market, well sorry that is just not going to happen without a giant law suit, i don’t care what country you come from. you just can’t steal some ones discovery with big trouble that could land your butt in prison.

      • Peter Selberg

        The implied strategy was to win by economies of scale, not patent protection. This is what I believe is naive since IH can never achieve the same economies of scale as the competition, which in this case pretty much is the rest of the world combined.

        Relying on patents will probably also be useless, considering the huge rewards involved for anyone that successfully makes a working e-cat replica and the low regard for patent protection in certain countries. IH will probably have a couple of good years before the competition catches up, but the real windfall will probably be distributed among several other entities.