‘Exponential Progress’ being Made in High Temperature E-Cat R&D

Andrea Rossi has mentioned many times that he is working full-time on trying to get the 1 MW plant at the site of an  Industrial Heat customer to a state of ‘perfection’, and he has said that work on this plant is taking up most of his time.

However, it now seems that this is no longer the case, as Rossi has commented today that he is involved in serious research on R&D with the Hot Cats (High temperature E-Cats) which are being driven by natural gas, rather than electricity. And judging by a comment today on the Journal of Nuclear Physics, work in this area is going rather well:

Andrea Rossi

KeithT:
I will answer to this question after the R&D we are making on both of them will have been completed: for the low temperature the R&D is on course by means of the 1 MW plant delivered to the Customer of IH, for the Hot Cat intense R&D is on course by means of new prototypes upon which we are making exponential progress by the day. Within about 1 year we will have consolidated data. I deem meaningless to give transitory data.
Warm Regards,
A.R.

‘Exponential progress by the day’ is high praise indeed — and possibly a little hyperbole — but it does give an impression of good progress. The significance of progress with the Hot Cat is that it should mean that IH are getting closer to the goal of achieving temperatures high enough to produce the supercharged steam that is needed to drive turbines to generate electricity efficiently. Having them driven by natural gas, which in many parts of the world (North America especially) is much cheaper than electricity, only adds to the efficiency.

For power stations, utilities and others in the energy business, Industrial Heat will need to demonstrate savings in power generation, and long-term stability of performance, before they would consider investing in this new form of energy.

  • Omega Z

    They have an Agreement. Not a Timeline. When that was announced, they still didn’t have a boiler capable of that. That could take several year before a Pilot plant is available.

  • Omega Z

    “Do they believe that natural gas will be cheaper than the electricity produced by the Hot Cat?”

    No, But as yet, the Hot cat doesn’t produce electricity.
    Once Electricity is produced by E-cats & have proliferated to certain extent(A Tipping Point) Then Gas cats will become less prevalent.

    When Rossi says all Energies will be integrated, He is speaking of a transition period where all will be used for several decades. In Fact, He pretty much said this in a post a few months ago when someone questioned his use of the term integrated. If LENR proves to be what it appears, Eventually it will be the primary energy source. I think Fossil Energy will always have some niche market.

    In the mean time, Natural Gas is cheaper & it’s use will actually help in LENR’s adaptation. It appears less threatening.

  • Zeddicus Zul Zorander

    But not home certification. As far as I know he only has industrial certification for the low temp 1MW reactor.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    It’s not a mom and pop operation. I’m sure they’re learning a lot.

  • timycelyn

    Lighten up guys! I think you are trying to read way too much into Rossi’s off the cuff chuckle of pleasure. Beware of excited Italian hyperbole.

    My take away is that they are making slowly accelerating progress on taming the hot cat. A key target would presumably be to construct arrays, which presumably would be much smaller than the current shipping container warm cat array out with the industrial customer.

    I’m not sure if Rossi has ever confirmed that Hot Cat arrays have been successfully executed, or whether in the past he just agreed they were a desireable and logical target for development. I suspect the latter.

    I imagine there will be some read across -if only in the realisation of the difficulty of the task – from current experiences in getting 100 warm cats to work together, to the much more daunting task of bringing several hot cats into close proximity.

  • GreenWin

    Thanks for your final comments Charlie. Good luck for the New Year!

    • Omega Z

      Charlie, What GreenWin said

  • Zeddicus Zul Zorander

    I don’t really understand why Rossi bothered with the low temperature ecat after the hot cat was invented. It seems to me the hot cat could be used in relatively low temperature mode also. None of the two variants are expected in homes in the near future due to the nuclear nature of the reaction. So if his goal would be industrial anyway, why not go for the hot cat from the start?

    Other than that this is good news 🙂

    • Omega Z

      Just as the LT E-cat can’t run at high temps, The HT E-cat can’t run at low temps. They use a different Fuel/Charge composition for different temperature range..

      • Zeddicus Zul Zorander

        True, but I’m guessing the hot cat can run in a range from 600 to 1400C. A 600C 1MW reactor would make more sense to me than a 1 MW low temp reactor. You can still produce 120C steam with such a reactor. That reactor would probably need fewer hot cats and may be easier to build and maintain. As I said I don’t get the idea behind the low temp cat.

        • Omega Z

          I’m assuming that the Lt cats are cheaper materials, cheaper to build for the purpose intended. Also, By Rossi’s statements, the HT-Cat is still in much in the R&D phase.

          I believe we’ll eventually see a Lt, Md, Ht cats in time that will take material cost into consideration as each could vary substantially. And while speculating, I think we’ll also see 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100Kw reactors once the LT & Ht are consolidated. An additional 500Kw & 1Mw would round things out for nearly every possibility using various sizes for variable output range & reducing the total reactors for each system. Of course, the nature of controlling the effect may ultimately limit anything above a certain point.

  • BroKeeper

    My take on this is we may see the LENR Christmas gift under the December 2015 tree. What a gift that will be for much of the world. The naughtiest will only get their dirty coal in their stockings.

    Wish everyone a very merry Christmas and a hopeful New Year.

  • Sanjeev

    This may sound a bit pessimistic, but I guess “exponential” is only used as a metaphor. Rossi has no idea what exponential means. Are they doubling the COP every day ? or are they installing 10x more working plants everyday (or even every month)?
    ECat tech cannot progress exponentially unless there are more than 100-200 developers worldwide. As they had announced, IH should have licensed the tech to as many labs/industries as possible to enable an exponential growth. They can ask for million$s and may keep very strict NDA or T&Cs, but they need to distribute this teach asap. That will be a real growth IMO, else we may see a brick klin or at most one furnace by the end of next year.

    • Nixter

      I would guess that Rossi is speaking of increases in their understanding and their ability to control the effect more than an increase in COP or temperature. It is possible that breakthroughs in learning how the Low temp E-Cat operates has led to similar increases in understanding in the Hot-Cat, these in turn may require a new set of engineering rules to test on the Hot-Cat. Rossi has said little of the EMF effect he discovered some time ago, I would think (hope), that this effect is getting the most intense R&D efforts of all. For all we know, the Hot-Cat can be tweaked to output increased amounts of EMF that can then be put to work in a useful way.

  • Fortyniner

    That’s the story. Of course, in practice if a few months of good data are available it should be quite easy to find more ‘customers’ willing to install pilot plants on a leased or ‘per kWh’ basis, which would provide operational data far more quickly, and under differing operational conditions. So far there is no hint of this rather obvious development path, unfortunately.

    • Hurley

      I think the stragedy is to perfect one design then hit the market hard with a production line. Rossi has said this in the past that they must grab a major share of the market at a pice that is hard to beat. There is also the IP to worry about. They know that once units hit the streets they will be reverse engineered quickly.

    • Bernie777

      Hard to believe they cannot find companies willing to try this new tech, tells me there are problems we are not hearing about. After listening to Rossi for four years it is clear he believes, “You’ve got to accentuate the positive, Eliminate the negative, Latch on to the affirmative,Don’t mess with Mister In-Between”. Merry Christmas everyone!

  • Gerard McEk

    I would interpret ‘expontial progress’ as ‘a sharp increase of the COP’ . The 1400 degrees of the Hot cat is more then sufficient to make overheated steam. High COP is needed to make an efficient self sustaining power generator that produces electricity. If IH can make that then there is no need to prove LENR, it simply exists!

    • Omega Z

      From 1 of Rossi’s posts, I think he is talking about
      1. Maintaining high temps under load
      And
      2. Efficiently transferring that heat to a working fluid.
      1400’C should provide steam around 800’C & 900’C.

  • Andreas Moraitis

    The outcome of „exponential progress“ after a certain period depends on the progress per time unit. Some examples:

    Improvement per day – factor after 365 days

    1.001 (+0.1%) 1.44
    1.01 (+1%) 37.78
    1.03 (+3%) 4.85×10^4
    1.05 (+5%) 5.42×10^7

    It seems to be evident that, although the numbers become finally very high, it is not possible to proceed to infinity in this way. If we apply this procedure to the COP – which is infinite in self-sustained mode – it necessarily fails. Therefore, exponential progress (as a step-by-step solution) is not a suitable model to describe every aspect of Rossi’s work…;-)

  • georgehants

    It all seems a little strange to me, the first people to actually demonstrate “openly” a Cold Fusion device will be remembered as the first to bring the technology into the World.
    Therefore why is Mr. Rossi and IH so confident that nobody else is going to show even a crude but provably working device before them?

    • Ophelia Rump

      Even if they did, no one will treat them with credibility for years. The same treatment Rossi has been given. There is little chance of anyone beating IH to market, there are no competitors apparent, and in fact IH is already in test market.

    • blanco69

      I agree George. If I were a Rossi investor, I’d be nervous that I’d backed the wrong horse in this race. Rossi’s timing prediction of “consolidated data” is staggeringly slow. It suggests that the race is much less advanced than we think or, even worse, there is no race.

      • georgehants

        blanco69, I was not trying to imply that there is any doubt about Mr. Rossi,s Wonderful work or discovery.

    • Obvious

      If he doesn’t watch out, I will demonstrate a working device first.

      • georgehants

        Obvious, that would be good, I will keep my eye open for your report.

  • Ophelia Rump

    It sounded like Rossi was just updated on how one of his teams is progressing. I would think he has a few.

    • Fortyniner

      That would be encouraging. I am hoping that LT units will be used as a ‘soft’ introduction that will not startle the horses. When these have been accepted as ‘energy amplifiers’ that don’t challenge the status quo too seriously, gas fired HT reactors could be quietly slipped into the mix.

      As others have observed, heat is heat. If IH can get HT ‘gas cats’ working, then despite the rationalisations frequently offered, there seem to be no reasons why heat generated by one unit should not be used to preheat the next, and so on. Even if small amounts of gas need to be burned to take the operating temperature briefly above the CF reaction temperature for some reason, or heavy EM pot stirring is needed to control the reaction, the energy gain that becomes possible from a multi-core reactor will be enormous.