When Oil Drops Hard: The Case of Venezuela

We’ve discussed here before the potential impact that the adoption of a new energy source (LENR) could have on countries that depend heavily on oil revenues. With the recent sharp decline in oil prices we can see that an energy shock can put some countries in a very difficult position. Personally, I don’t think that LENR has very much, if anything, to do with this drop in oil prices, but I think it could have a major impact on energy prices if it recognized as being a commercially viable technology.

  • An article by Andy Tully on oilprice.com looks at the current case of Venezuela which gets 96 per cent of its revenues from oil sales. Here are some of the main points from the article.
  • Venezuela pled for OPEC to cut oil production by 1 million barrels to stem the price fall, but at a November meeting OPEC maintained current levels of production and the price dropped lower.
  • Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro announced a 20 percent cut in government spending. Maduro also announced cuts in transaction fees for exchanging the Bolivar to the US dollar.
  • Maduro will visit Iran and Russia looking for foreign aid from those governments (both oil producing countries also hit hard by oil’s drop) and is sending his finance minister to China for help

Venezuela is already in a bad economic situation, with 60 per cent inflation,  a shrinking economy, with many basic goods hard to obtain — the oil price drop is exacerbating the situation.

Oil is a commodity that has had wild price swings in the past decades, and there could be an upswing in the future that will change the fortunes of oil producing countries like Venezuela. But I think that oil’s use as a transportation fuel, at least, is probably going to continue to decline, even without a revolutionary technology like LENR making a big splash. One benefit of high oil prices is that it gives incentive to developers of alternative energy technologies. As an example, we see electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles being developed across the auto industry now — and use of natural gas is also growing as a transportation fuel.

I’m not sure what the solution to the situation in Venezuela is, but surely diversification of an economy is important. We learned recently that some in Norway (another oil-rich nation) are looking beyond oil when they held a seminar about LENR. The attendees were looking at the possibility that oil could stop being an economic mainstay, and were trying to figure out what moves they might need to make to adapt economically.

  • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

    note that LENR will give freedom against centralized powers, not necssarily by making it disapear but putting pressure.

    it is like Internet freedom to click away.
    when Google is strupid enough to abuse of it’s dominant position on internet users, people will go to Bing…

    if Utilities are not efficient with smart grid, exploiting home CHP and paying price of that energy at a fair price, even if they get paid for the service, then people will decide to invest in a fully autonomous LENR generator.

    It remember me a joke at work :
    how to obtain a discount on Microsoft Office and Windows ?
    just put a penguin on your desk when the salesman come.

  • GreenWin

    We’re due a new ice age… 🙂

  • LCD

    Here is what I see. Could be off but OPEC is the single most responsible entity for the price drop. If they slowed their flow they could easily bring the price back up. But a huge problem for them is that electric vehicles or “the battery” is coming online and that bypasses gasoline for transportation in lieu of coal, and natural gas.
    However one tiny little fact they know is that electric cars are still much more expensive than gas powered cars so when the price of gas drops there is even less of a reason to buy electric or hybrid, ensuring more gas guzzlers on the roads for years to come.
    Tesla and others may one day change that but OPEC is certainly not going to finance it.
    Where one day there was the sense that Oil supplies may run out before demand the best strategy was to charge as much as you could for what you had. But now that doesn’t seem like the case so the new strategy for OPEC is to take a bigger share of the market by putting other producers out of business. This allows them to sell more and make up profit in higher volume.

    Does that seem right?

  • we want LENR Fusione Fredda

    Deeply enjoyable conversations about how socialism became communism, or how it became fascism. Agreed, it all boils down to behaviour, organizations and individual satisfaction of basic and artificial needs.

  • Oceans2014

    Factoid > http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/texas-is-now-one-quarter-wind-powered–2
    25% of Texas energy is generated by wind.

  • LilyLover

    Half of it is true because they overestimated the power of the matrix and underestimated the will of the Rossi-like scientists. Other half of it is true because of internet beyond control. As to the price fluctuations… the key word in trading is “Futures” trading… i.e. The calculation of future demand changes instantly based on LENR’s speed of adoption. If you make plans for your investments of certain kinds, LENR squashes all the parasitic plans in an instant. Hence the price of oil is more sensitive to the future possibilities rather than near-future needs. The inherent inpredicatability is the cornerstone of making money through financial consultation/trading. Average people cannot see far enough, but when they do, the “analysts” can always play the game of “we know better” only to later “say sorry”.
    Also, a random comment: The people whose future is reliant upon high oil prices, are pro-parasitic in nature sucking the blood out of mother Earth; every drop in oil price is a worthy cause for celebration.

  • GreenWin

    The “fools” at The Motley Fool investment advisers are spelling it out in hard dollars and cents:

    “Oil News: $150 Billion in Oil Projects are at Risk Due to Plunging Oil Prices”

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/12/08/oil-news-150-billion-in-oil-projects-are-at-risk-d.aspx
    The question for management now is where to steer Funds cash, when they start bailing on long term oil? While some will go to renewables and socially responsible investment, we will need to see a window into LENR and its beneficiaries. From the article above, Statoil (Norway’s State oilco) is slamming brakes on many big oil investments. And Statoil has been briefed on LENR by R&D leaders. I would look for a Statoil spinoff to fast track LENR products and services.

    • Omega Z

      “The question for management now is where to steer Funds cash”

      Ha, They should call me. I have a deposit only account number I’ll be glad to share with them. giggity giggity

  • EEStorFanFibb

    Oil drops to new five-year low as Morgan Stanley cuts outlook

    “Late on Friday, Morgan Stanley set a new bar for bearishness on Wall
    Street, slashing its average 2015 Brent base-case outlook by $28 to $70
    per barrel and warning that prices could drop as low as $43 a barrel
    next year.”

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/oil-drops-to-new-five-year-low-as-morgan-stanley-cuts-outlook/article21987414/

  • ecatworld

    Oil has dropped another 4 per cent today.

    • artefact

      I followed the drop the whole day after goldman sachs said it will not drop more 🙂

  • GreenWin

    Watch the flow of funds into non-petrodollar materials such as gold and silver. The U.S. dollar was once backed by both. Now it is backed by the vanishing promise of oil futures.

  • GreenWin

    The transition continues. In a new article by Bloomberg’s Carl Pope, he plants seeds that oil is becoming an option. And oil monopoly coming to an end. This, like myriad other oil price articles are reinforcing the idea that fossil fuels have diminished control of energy markets.

    “Oil as transportation fuel will be around for a few more decades. But oil as a hazardous monopoly fuel is now merely one of multiple options. It’s up to us: We have choices — cars powered by electricity or natural gas, and public transportation systems that render cars superfluous in
    densely populated zones. We can unhitch economic growth from oil, making our climate more stable and our economies richer. We can leave oil’s tyranny behind.”
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-07/when-oil-becomes-optional

    If one considers how quickly oil price news has shaken the planet – what better way to prepare global economy for transition? While mainstream news of LENR remains carefully controlled, news of the collapse of oil economies rises.

    • Buck

      GW,

      I couldn’t agree more with your perspective:

      “If one considers how quickly oil price news has shaken the planet – what
      better way to prepare global economy for transition? While mainstream
      news of LENR remains carefully controlled, news of the collapse of oil
      economies rises.”

      As Rossi said “now the competition is very serious”. LENR, unbeknownst to most, is forcing its integration into the global energy economy. Those who do know, now refuse to ignore the prospect of publicly recognized LENR revolution within just a few years and the consequent predictable impact upon all forms of energy.

      I hope my stockbroker cousin is working this Black Swan event to best advantage. I certainly have made her aware.

      • GreenWin

        Buck, what’s not particularly clear aside from shorting petro stocks is where institutional energy funds will move to. So, your cousin may not have too many plays in hand. Decommissioned fossil/fission rigs will probably increase. Desal. Water. Very few publicly traded companies have acknowledged LENR. Yet. 🙂

        • Buck

          GW,
          I have not done the analysis . . . but I disagree on being limited on where $$ should flow. I believe a pair of motivated analysts would be able to trace the consequences and establish a framework for investing long or short. It wouldn’t be easy . . . but you’re talking about $$Millions of potential profit for the investor. IMHO . . . follow the impact on cash flows.

    • Fortyniner

      I’m puzzled by a couple of things.

      Firstly, assuming that what we (think) we now about the immediacy of commercial LENR is broadly correct, then surely it is too early for sudden mass movements in the oil market. After all, even under the most optimistic assumptions, it is likely to be years, possibly decades before cold fusion even begins to make a significant dent in the oil market. So do some people know something else about both the imminence of commercial CF, and the scale of the coming introduction? Both would have to be very far beyond the picture drawn by Rossi to explain the apparent market reaction.

      Secondly – why oil? The existing energy sources that will be most seriously affected are gas and nuclear, and there will also be further massive downward pressure on coal. Can any of the analysts here say what is happening to these markets? (gas and nuclear anyway – coal has its own separate problems not directly related to CF).

      • GreenWin

        The Street is like an oracle – it purports to know the future. Expanding hints that the petroleum monopoly is coming to an end is just what the Street attunes to. The Street’s big playing elites, above all, like to get out first. Leaving the rest of us holding the bag. Bill Gates’ interest in cold fusion is enough to spook Street specialists to sell off. So, the huge selloff we are seeing is part of an orchestrated intro to CF and alternatives. The climate gang should be dancing.
        Oil is most vulnerable. PTB have elected to withdraw support in favor of gas which carries a better climate story. A recent pitch for adopting NG and electric-powered vehicles from the Gaia clan confirmed this. Nukes are over (except in your backyard) and no one wants coal anymore. And oil is a great big stick for beating Putin and containing the fracking revolution. IMO.

  • GreenWin

    And yet, a mere hundred years ago nearly all family farms (80% population) were energy independent.

  • GreenWin

    And yet, our most vocal skeptics deny there is any manner of censorship. Silly rabbits. Norway and Sweden could become the first nations to officially adopt LENR as an energy transition goal. Perhaps Erna Solberg should have a chat with Magnus Olofssun?

  • Bernie777

    Maybe OPEC has decided they had better sell as much of their oil as they can before……….(:

    • Jonnyb

      Yes I thought the same.

    • bitplayer

      Part of their motivation is to make fracking unprofitable, to kill that competition. Meanwhile the fracking engineers figure out how to frack more economically. It’s a race.

  • http://renewable.50webs.com/ Christopher Calder

    Just think how far along we would be today if Rossi had only open-sourced his device when he first made his big breakthrough years ago, say in 2011. Everyone in the world knows how to construct a gasoline internal combustion engine and that has not stopped industry from making money off of them. You don’t need exclusive patent rights to make money. Rossi would still make a fortune and he would have a Nobel Prize on his mantel to look now.

    Anyway, in the movie about Rossi, which will be made at some point in time, maybe Russell Crowe could play Rossi and Woody Harrelson could plan Sterling Allen. What ya think? That could be funny and very entertaining.

    • bachcole

      Don’t expect any agreement or sympathy from me if you advocate Rossi giving away his future profits for your idealism. Your example of the ICE does not fit because the ICE has been around for 130 years. The ICE doesn’t even fit because it uses oxygen combustion, which patent was written with stone axes 300,000 years ago.

      • http://renewable.50webs.com/ Christopher Calder

        If he had publicized exacting instructions in 2011, the device would have been duplicated in laboratories all over the world, including MIT. The taboo against cold fusion would have been broken, and Rossi would have been offered jobs and research money from corporations all over the world. Instead of working for Industrial Heat, LLC, he would be working for Toyota, GM, GE, Westinghouse, Siemens, or some other large firm. How much money does one person need? He would be wealthy, and the race to perfect the technology would be global with billions of dollars worth of funding, not just a few million. Rossi could have applied for his patent and then publicized the blueprints. No one can take the honor away from him that he was the inventor.

        • LilyLover

          Not that your write-up merits attention but, again and again, I’ve to clarify this point – Rich Rossi is alive Rossi; poor Rossi is dead Rossi. How good is open source knowledge if the development upon it is outlawed, outbanked, outcertified and practitioners ‘made an example out of’? When Rossi needed money, none of the above corporations came to his rescue. Why do you think he’d care about the big names? Don’t you think he’d rather be very rich, having endured hardships already, rich enough to be able to buy out all the above companies instead of working for them? As for, the Nobel Prize, if he doesn’t get it, it’ll be the mockery of the good ole Nobel-Prize itself. Then again, the very people judge Science by Nobel Prize, may treat the Nobel prize like a stepchild once Rossi-Prize becomes the new norm. So, who in their right mind be enticed by Nobel-Prize, when they’sve got E-Cat in their hands?
          And your naive belief that Patent Office has the ability to act ethically, is incorrect. If it has been decided that Rossi shall get no patent, it has been decided. The only thing Rossi’s got to prove is – real stuff survives, despite of patent office. UL/CE certifications. Haven’t heard from Kim in a long time – but- he’d agree on this one – If Rossi is fundamentally changing the nature of money, the billions of dollars are not all that important. Rossi, has gone through the toughest phase of this bravery now it’s a smooth sailing henceforth. Now is really not a time to mess with Rossi.
          Oh, BTW, On android phones, using google now, ask “Who is Andrea Rossi” and listen to “According to Wikipedia…” I’ve recorded it… you guys do it, too, please. In future it’ll somehow help Rossi.
          … And they’re asking for more money!
          It’d really take a genius to see what Rossi is pursuing is the most charitable path forward.
          Salut to the good doctor.

  • georgehants

    Just to put things in perspective for the readers on page from the colonies, in the UK the church and a number of good MP’s are trying to get a law passed to end hunger in the UK by 2020.
    Capitalism is a Wonderful thing, that will profit from and tax Cold Fusion, like oil, just to fund the rich and powerful as usual.

  • Omega Z

    Venezuela is taking a double hit.
    Since they nationalized their oil, Production has dropped 30% plus due to neglect & a lack of expertize. They’ve asked Big oil to come in & help them fix/repair & increase drilling production.

    Big oil’s Like, WTF, You nationalize & take over Billion$ of our previous investments & you want us to help. Don’t call us. We’ll call you. he he he

  • ecatworld

    Another article on Oilprice.com — this time about Norway:

    Norway’s Oil Decline Accelerating http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Norways-Oil-Decline-Accelerating.html

    “New oil projects are being scrapped in Norway amid falling production and low oil prices.

    “Long held up as the model for managing oil abundance, Norway has painstakingly sought to prevent the problems that occur with other natural resource-based economies, such as corruption, slow economic growth, currency appreciation, and subsequently, deindustrialization.”

    [. . . ]

    “To be sure, Norway has its almost $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund to fall back on, so it is not as if its citizenry will be thrust into poverty anytime soon. Still, Norway may need to begin building a post-oil economy sooner than it thought.”

  • Frechette

    And I thought they were Communists.

  • Ophelia Rump

    The best thing Venezuela could do is to become a world leader in LENR.
    Then instead of being devastated, they would at first balance out and later thrive.
    Those who adapt thrive. If you have the most to lose, you must adopt the soonest to mitigate the threat.

    • jousterusa

      Don’t give them any ideas! 🙂

  • mytakeis

    It’s a paradox that Venezuela would be better socially to put serious effort into developing alternate sources of energy, despite their glut of oil reserves. As Norway appears to be doing, perhaps just a official interest by the country conveyed to the Norwegian ministry responsible for its energy future would suffice to get things started for them. And yes, politics and policy are inextricably intertwined with the advent of new energy, E-cat and all.

    • Travis458

      The paradox is that Venezuela has to import oil, but it’s a known fact that if you let socialists in charge of a desert, in a few years they have to import sand. In fact, that’s what the government of Dubai does, importing sand into a freaking desert. Venezuela wouldn’t be as bad and violent as it is now if it wasn’t that terribly managed. Oil price is fixed by the government, and thanks to hyperinflation filling the whole gas tank costs the same as buying one sweet. As a result, there’s a huge mafia around refilling tanks and selling the gas to other countries for a much higher price that leaves gas stations empty.
      They would be better socially if they weren’t socialists.

  • Frechette

    The drop in oil prices will also affect US oil companies particularly the smaller ones. These companies have borrowed big by issuing junk bonds following the mantra Drill Baby Drill. Those bonds are high risk paying high interest rates. Should oil prices drop even further it will be difficult to repay those loans when the bonds mature putting countless oil companies out of business as well as resulting in losses for investors big time.

    • Omega Z

      Frechette
      It won’t have the impact that many think or in the way they think. Most small companies are self financed for the most part by selling shares in individual wells. There is no money to pay back to the banks. Primarily Only the equipment of the drilling operation is financed & anything other then that is recovered on completion of a well.. Oil pipeline loans are paid by transport fees.

      The big effect would be opening a new field. No infrastructure makes it expensive so new fields will not be opened. Existing fields will continue to drill new wells all the way down to $40’s a barrel. The infrastructure is already paid for. And that $40 price level is still dropping due to continued advances in new technologies.

      Production wells can continue pumping to $20. They will then go idle until the price comes back. Most investors can deal with this for quite sometime. It does hurt the small investor who planned on this income as part of their pension & are already collecting or soon will be.

      Basically, The U.S. has been to this rodeo several times & is highly diversified.(Nobody owns all of anything). There will be some consolidation of small rig operators & a few will fall by the wayside. The majority of Oil rights in the U.S. is privately owned so the property owners will take a hit on income if production is curtailed. They receive $1 royalty of every $8 gross sale even if the well itself loses money they still get that 1/8 gross.
      Note: Even at $20, the land/oil rights owner makes $2.50 a barrel even if the well operator loses money. In this situation, the well will usually be idled until price/profit line is reached.

      Communities take the biggest hit. If there’s no drilling, 1000’s of people leave. Small businesses close & the tax base shrinks.
      The Reason the oil business suffers so little is Big Oil plays the long game & expect it. The small operator plays the short term & responds much quicker.

      Certain things in society are kind of fascinating. If everyone decided “NOT” to drill another oil well for 30 days, the Glut would be gone & prices would jump back to $100 a barrel & stay there for quite a while because so many wells will have went dry & shut down. This doesn’t happen because of a Capitalist competitive free market system. A soon as someone sees a dollar can be made, they start drilling. There’s over 4000 well platforms in the Gulf of Mexico waiting to be dismantled. The wells went dry. Nations like Venezuela that nationalized oil will suffer. They aren’t diversified.

  • ecatworld

    I think it is relevant and instructive to look at situations like this, because energy is bound up with economics and the geopolitical scene. A major impact on energy production, as we expect LENR could have, could have far reaching implications and problems that need to be dealt with. How to respond will depend on leadership and policy (yes that is politics). Venezuela’s current situation shows one response to deal with an energy related crisis, and I think one that we might be able to learn something from. I don’t want ECW to be a site primarily about politics, but politics will naturally come up in some contexts.

    • Buck

      The impact of LENR will be worldwide . . . including the US and Great Britain:

      “BP Quickens Job Cuts Due to Oil Price Fall”
      LINK>> http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30372363

    • Alain Samoun

      Evidently, see the New York Time today: reading the main story

      A Window Into a Secret Alliance: Attorneys General and the Energy Industry

      http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/07/us/politics/energy-firms-in-secretive-alliance-with-attorneys-general.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

      • Buck

        Alain,

        this is a perfect example of Rossi’s quote: “now the competition is very serious.”

        link>> http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/11/19/rossi-now-the-competition-is-very-serious/#comments

      • Omega Z

        For anyone that pays attention, this is no secret.
        This goes on in every state & crosses party lines.
        Many states make a lot of money off Gas & Oil even After all the immediate jobs are gone from drilling or pipeline building.

        Tho the label may vary, they get separation fees for the oil/gas removed from the ground & some even apply a separate tax above that. They also receive Transport fees for every barrel or therm crossing in or out of the state by pipeline.

        The Gulf States like Mississippi, Florida, Etc, get paid additionally when an oil platform is dismantled from depleted wells along the coast. Usually far exceeding the salvage/scrap prices. About 4K of them are waiting to be dismantled. Around 8 Billion$ in fees.

        Note: Alaska has a fund similar to Norway, tho they invest only a portion of it(around 30+ Billion$ to date) & apply the rest to the State budget. They also distribute a portion of the revenues from those investments to Alaskan citizens each year. This year was 2K to 3K per person regardless of age. They also have no state income tax.

  • jousterusa

    I’m sorry that you’ve been persuaded by the talking heads – who know far less than you do – that factors other than LENR are driving the price of oil down. You may have forgotten that the first response of the oil industry to the blaring front page headlines about cold fusion was to run the USS Valdez aground and despoil pristine Alaskan beaches. Most people think these things are unrelated, but because I predicted something like it in advance of F-P and Valdez (I had predicted that a huge “breakthrough” and an equally huge “disaster” would occur simultaneously, several months before they happened). Acknowledging the impact of cold fusion on oil prices would be absolutely devastating to oil prices, and your Venezuelan folks would join the rest of OPEC and non-aligned oil-producing nations in seeing the commodity whose sales have fueled their despotism suddenly disappear. Perhaps you believe that they haven’t noticed the myriad articles cited on the American Reporter home page, or that 11,200 people have so far viewed (and 870 have shared) my CNN article about the President’s triumph at APEC, or you actually believe that the Saudis are graciously surrendering tens of billion in oil revenue in order to destroy the American fracking industry. Naivete is a national obsession, I think; we expect white juries to indict or decide the guilt of police officers based on some standard of reasonableness, even after Simi Valley (Rodney King), Ferguson (Michael Brown) and New York County (Eric Garner). Certain beliefs persist long after evidence has destroyed their probity, and the invulnerability of Big Oil and the “fraud” of cold fusion are among them. Cold fusion is a cold, hard fact, and to ignore it would make the moguls of the oil industry look like fools. The only other approach would be to tell the world about it and their diminishing prospects, even at the cost of the aforementioned devastation, which would make them even bigger fools. The best response would be to begin divesting themselves of their oil assets as quietly and as defensibly as possible. Indeed, that is precisely what they started to do the day that the TIP report was published. The coincidence of those two events – the TIP publication and the beginning of the descent in oil prices – should have persuaded any cold-eyed observer.

    • builditnow

      Remember that the Gulf News out of Dubia had a “Cold Fusion is coming” type article on the recent E-Cat test, titled “Indian government urged to revive cold fusion”. It could be very very likely that the Saudis know about the Hot Cat test at the highest levels. Would they evaluate the Hot Cat as real, along with Brillouin expecially when several countries / customers are now taking it seriously?
      How would you react if this is your only state revenue?

      http://gulfnews.com/news/world/india/indian-government-urged-to-revive-cold-fusion-1.1413814

      • jousterusa

        So did India’s “Economic Times,” which ran that same story first.

    • Andre Blum

      Joe, I am sorry to tell you, this doesn’t make any sense.

      • jousterusa

        I was saying, more simply put, that it’s not in the interests of Big Oil, and the millions of jobs they control, to tell folks that cold fusion is going to destroy their livelihoods. They will sell off their assets and then tell the world. Thanks fior your note, Andre.

        • we want LENR Fusione Fredda

          The problem with the comfort zone: it is very difficult, once one’s lifestyle is set, to change it. If I have an “oil” job, then I have made plans, calculated mortgages, and so on. Yes, cold fusion may threaten “oil” jobs, but is quite likely to create many other jobs, in different sectors.
          Our mistake is to sit in the comfort zone and resist change. But change is going to shake us all off the tree. Better be flexible.
          http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/

  • Anon2012_2014

    What does Venezuela, a failed nation-state, have to do with LENR? Nothing. We should keep political commentary off of this site.

    • Freethinker

      … Or the again Frank Acland will be allowed to publish whatever he see fit on his own blog. Remember, you are only the visitor.

      It is related, because when lenr get real traction, it will likely impact the oilprice further. Thus this article has to do with lenr, as it illustrate some possible socioeconomic effects in the wake of its introduction.

      • Anon2012_2014

        It’s Frank’s blog, but it is public and he is one of our defacto leaders. When some stranger comes and searches for LENR they will come across this article on VZ along with real LENR news.

        • Freethinker

          So? It is lenr related, it is a privately owned blog, and If you have been along for the ride the last 3 years you will agree that most matters related to lenr is discussed in here. Actually, there have been a lot of discussion about the impact on the world socioeconomics when the ECAT is available on the market, when LENR devices is available on a broader front, as well as if it somehow would fail, etc,etc. There are far worse places for a “stranger” to end up in, say e.g. ECN.

          • jousterusa

            And you might add that there is no way to avoid politics in those discussions, because the politics of major economic change is all-encompassing.

          • Omega Z

            ECN, Wakes up in cold sweat. Oh the nightmares. 🙂

      • we want LENR Fusione Fredda

        IMHO it is impossible to think or discuss about energy, especially about
        a new source of infinite, extremely cheap energy potentially available
        to large masses of people on the globe, without thinking about politics.
        What has held the research in this field back for 25 years,
        violently stigmatizing, ridiculing and effectively quenching even the slightest
        citation of LENR / cold fusion?

    • J Storrs Hall

      A couple of observations:
      (a) the post was clearly and accurately titled; anyone not interested could easily not click through.
      (b) one reason many people are interested in LENR is precisely because of the hope that energy prices will fall drastically, and information on what can happen when they do fall semi-drastically is an aid to informed speculation on what may happen elsewhere when that happens in a bigger way.
      (c) Venezuela is by no means the only place where there are idiots in control of the government.

    • Philip James

      This had nothing to do with politics in my view. He was using this as an example of what changing energy prices can do to an economy.

      Your perspective and political leanings come through loud and clear with your use of the term “a failed nation state”. Sounded pretty political to me. Take your own medicine– You should keep your political commentary off of this site.

      • Wayne M.

        Phil,

        And have you noticed that when bloggers do express their “political leanings” they are inevitably extreme? Conspiracies of silence, corrupt “mainstream” scientists, evil government or academia, oil companies ‘holding’ back green technologies, yadda, yadda, yadda.

        It’s very tiresome. I would drop this blog if I could find another blog that would discuss LENR (&BLP) from a science orientation and with a dispassionate tone,

        BUT THERE IS’NT ANY… 🙂

        • http://renewable.50webs.com/ Christopher Calder

          Well, I for one do not believe the oil companies are working against LENR in any way, shape, or form. They generally are very open minded, science oriented people and support LENR research. The resistance comes from the old guard physics community who do not want to admit that they were wrong for decades. The television news media felt burned after Pons and Fleischmann experiments because they were so difficult to duplicate, so they don’t want to talk about LENR and get burned again. The US television news media disregards important stories right and left every day anyway. LENR is just one of many important world events they ignore. They would rather cover safe stories, like a new diet, a murder, accidental death, or a celebrity scandal.

          • jousterusa

            There is a lot of truth in what you say, Christopher, but not enough – or at least enough clarity. I think from the very broadest perspective, the smartest financial people in the world can estimate exactly what cold fusion is going to do. They won’t let another Internet sneak up on them unawares.

            • http://renewable.50webs.com/ Christopher Calder

              I think most people in industry and the financial world will try to invest in LENR and make money out of it, not keep it from being deployed. There are conspiracies in this world, but no conspiracy can hold back LENR for long. The US Patent Department will have to give in, and soon.

              • Omega Z

                Chris
                A good example, If I were a Banker, I’d be all over LENR.
                It’s going to require hundreds of Billions in the short term & Trillions over the long term. Where they going to borrow that money from.
                The Banker.

                China alone will need to build 6 to 12 trillion dollars worth of power plants in the next 30 years. That’s a conservative estimate.

                • bachcole

                  If you were a banker, you would not know about LENR because you would be too busy to do all of the studying necessary to figure out that someone has broken out of the dominant paradigm not just in theory but in “burn my finger” fact.

          • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

            I sign with both hands.

            Shell, Amoco, have done their duty and published the results.
            even CEA did, until one scientist boss was afraid to lose his chance of Nobel (explained by JP Biberian in “la fusion dans touts ses états”).
            CNAM Engineer school was OK with Dufour experiments (and Shell money). Engineers were skeptical, cautious, but open…

        • georgehants

          Wayne M, so what is that telling you about corrupt and incompetent main-line science?
          Maybe you should go on these sites with ” a science orientation” and complain and ask why science hides and debunks Cold Fusion for 25 years.
          Your complaints seem very misplaced, this is not one of the censored and corrupt “science” sites, but as you say, the only honest Cold Fusion site where all interested “scientists” have to come to get the information banned in their own profession.
          Sad is it not.

      • Heath

        And likewise to Mr Calder.

      • Anon2012_2014

        Venezuela was a disaster economy even with crude at $110 per barrel due to the extremely large politically motivated budget deficits (i.e. handouts to the voters) of Chavez. So why on earth would we want to focus on the worst economy among crude oil exporters. Are we going to talk about Chavez’s politics? I don’t think so. This is an LENR blog.

        But go right ahead if you want and talk about Venezuela. Or Russia. Or Iran, or Saudi Arabia. To me, it is all off topic.

        • Alain Samoun

          Sure,¡Viva el Capitalismo!
          but get rid of your oil stocks fast, if you can 😉

    • http://renewable.50webs.com/ Christopher Calder

      The USA is a “failed nation-state” as well. Our standard of living and social order are continually going down, not up. The only things going up in the USA are debt and government lawlessness. Criminally bad energy policy is part of that, as well as our love of useless foreign wars. We are a nation with severe Attention Deficit Disorder. We love to defend the borders of other countries but not our own. Our government needs to do a few basic things extremely well. Instead we are doing a million and one things, and almost all extremely badly. We have no focus, no ability to see the big picture, and no ability to think of the long term consequences of our actions. We lack the ability to mind our own business, keep our mouths shut, and stay focused on having the USA lead by positive example, not by bullying and shouting hollow, hypocritical slogans at other nations.