Rossi: Main Problems with E-Cat Resolved.

Here’s a question I posted today on the Journal of Nuclear Physics, and Andrea Rossi’s response:

Dear Andrea,
Can you comment on how successful your team has been so far in solving the problems you have encountered with the 1 MW plant?
Many thanks

Andrea Rossi
December 3rd, 2014 at 8:11 AM
Frank Acland:
I would say that the mail [sic — sure he means main] problems have been resolved, but we have to see what happens in a long term operation. We must reach that kind of reliability that henry Ford reached when he decided to sell the Ford T in massive quantities. It takes time. This first plant working in the factory of a Customer that has to get industrial profit from it must reach the perfection to make us satisfied.
Warm Regards,
A.R.

This reads like good news to me. My guess is that the problems they had been dealing with are issues of controlling the 100+ reactors. Rossi has mentioned that they have 111 computers to manage the plant, and from what he writes here, it would seem those major problems of control have been successful.

When he says “we have to see what happens in a long term operation,” it sounds like the plant is running (it is designed to run 24/7, producing steam), and they have to monitor its operation over days, weeks and months. Certainly there could be issues to deal with, but maybe they have been able to keep things tamed, for the time being, at least.

  • bkrharold

    Based on what we know about the state of development of the e-cat at that time, it probably performed satisfactorily for a while and then had a problem. The customer was not satisfied and canceled the remaining 11 ecats. Understandably Rossi did not comment. IH are taking the long view, and allowing Rossi the necessary time to perfect his invention. The experience he is gaining from the industrial customer is invaluable.

  • Omega Z

    Most of that is not going to happen, At least not for some time.
    Note that the NEW 1Mw plant is a totally new design. It now incorporates the new Mouse/Cat configuration.

    The original contained only the reactors & about a dozen of those were on top the container. The new plant is all contained within including most all the plumbing & exchangers.

  • Omega Z

    The 1st few pilot plants will require monitoring to accumulate the necessary basic control data in order to pass on to intended Manufacturing Licensees. Rossi & his team are the best qualified for this task as they have the basic understanding of how the reactor works.

    This will require “Billion$” in investments. You can’t just dump E-cat reactors in the laps of these Corporations & expect things to immediately happen. Certain basics need to be supplied. Without it, they would likely just dabble with it for years before taking any serious actions. The path Rossi/IH are taking will essentially shave years off market roll out.

    I would actually be very surprised if Rossi/IH aren’t already working in collaboration with others. Possibly GE/Siemens or some other large concern. Rossi has stated that they have studied the possibilities of Gas turbine & jet engine implementation.(Rossi has stated in the past that this is outside his comfort zone.) This would require external expertise & you would want to be sure whoever your dealing with can keep their mouth shut under NDA.

    Note Rossi has already had contact with Siemens in the past. Siemens has never denied nor confirmed this when contacted. As McKubre & others have pointed out. These Corporations are very interested, But not yet willing to come forward. Airbus now being the exception. I expect more to follow in time as confidence in the technology grows.

    Darden stated in an interview that they have had “Several” high level meetings & the China connection was just 1 of them. Likely they didn’t intend even that to be known. There are Multiple big players located in the Triangle. We can only speculate on who or how many have been in contact with Industrial Heat. Private testing wouldn’t be that hard to arrange if not already fact.

    Consider, Cherokee/Darden already has associations with many/most of these players. Is it really that hard to believe discussions haven’t already taken place. At least in a preliminary fashion?

    Has anyone given Any thought as to where the 1Mw container was built. The reactors(Mouse/Cat) take up about 1 meter cube. The rest is hardware, Exchangers & such.

    Cherokee is a management company. Industrial Heat mostly a paper company. Both would appear to depend on collaboration with others to build anything of significance.

    So many questions & so few answers.
    Where’s the National Enquirer when you need them. Oh, That’s right. No movie stars. Wait, Wasn’t Brangelina seen coming out of the Industrial Heat Office??? Inquiring Minds want to Know…

  • georgehants

    “In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”
    ˜George Orwell

  • Jonnyb

    This can only been seen as positive, if all goes well they should be able to reveal their masterpiece to the world. Hopefully in a short time?

    • Gerrit

      it will take a year. I don’t expect anything exciting from IH/Rossi during most of 2015.

  • BroKeeper

    Perhaps there is another way of looking at the business model. Once LENR devices become competitive with hundreds of companies reproducing a version of the E-Cat they will become
    very cheap like printers are today. Printer companies are not making as much money from the selling of printers as they are from the jet ink and laser powder proprietary to each model.

    I trust IH is not just preparing mass production of E-Cats but planning to enhance revenue through maintenance and installation of the secret powder (sauce). Replication may not all be exact because of IP/patent protection leaving a multitude variations of the secret sauces by many companies like that of the printer manufacturers. As time goes on the home domestic powder cartridges may resemble the jet ink cartridges today where one will go to Home Depot or
    Lowes and select the correct model number off the rack. There will still be plenty of money to be
    made and enhance the lives of billions.

    • Omega Z

      Likely you’ll have to bring back the old cartridge or pay a substantial deposit. They wont want these thrown in the trash.

      I’m surprised something of this nature hasn’t been implemented for batteries. Both due to toxicity reasons & lithium reclaim.

  • LCD

    This is the absolutely WRONG business model. I completely respect and understand why Rossi thinks he must go the “first product to market route” and get finalized patents etc. But it’s pointless and whomever it’s advising him in the business world is following the completely wrong examples.

    Rossi has an effect that lends itself extremely well to IP licensing. And that’s what he should be doing.

    As soon as he makes his first publicly working plant everybody will want to buy it and everybody is going to try to reverse engineer it. Now he has a million competitors and 99 percent won’t even be competing in his initial market. What a wasted opportunity.

    Fast forward 10 years later many companies have reversed engineered it, somebody will “understand” the effect and IH will be a nobody except for historical significance.

    A better strategy is to take an equity position in several companes in several different markets and license the know how. Let your would-be competitors be your allies, and your R&D team.

    Anyways this is to long of a post, I’m not the only one who has brought up this point.

    What Rossi needs right now is to have many many people studying the effect to try to understand it in a profitable way for his company.

    • LookMoo

      In USA,.. lawyers design products.

    • Bob Greenyer

      Yes

    • Mike the Engineer

      Licensing could be a really good way to go. But you can’t sell licenses until you have a demonstrated successful process. In the chemical industry in which I work licensing is a common approach to things.

      • Omega Z

        Thus the Pilot plant…

      • LCD

        You can license this Mike, easily, no matter what level of control, it’s all negotiable. And the TPI showed it was stable enough.

        Meanwhile the general public also wins with expanded R&D. Additionally other investors can get involved, which will bring more researchers.

      • LCD

        On this effect you can sell licenses. Simply put if you had the opportunity to license the know how from a third party of how to make antigravity even though they couldn’t make it work all the time?

        Of course you would, and in the form of equity in a startup for sure.

    • Omega Z

      LCD
      I expect this technology to be licensed for manufacture to multiple parties. Data being accumulated from the pilot plant is probably for this purpose. To provide basic control data for others to work with would be essential. No one is better qualified for this then Rossi Inc.

      Just dumping reactors in their lap without the basics, they could easily spend years dabbling with it before they even begin to build a pilot plant.

      The information that Rossi will be able to provide them would be a major jump start. Manufacturing could start much quicker & they would quickly start working on their own R&D for improved systems like reducing the number of computers used for control.

      • LCD

        So I guess I can expand a little because their is confusion.

        Rossi can license know how in exchange for equity as a license and limit the license to a market and a geographic area.

        So for example he could license it to company A building jet engines for the U.S. for a period of 10 years and then they could sell anywhere.

        He could license it to company B who wants to build thermoelectric cells and sell to Europe for 10 years.

        And so on.

        Then as a stipulation any fundamental r&d advance by any licensee can be shared by all. Fir example if somebody figured out the fundamental cause they can share it with their larger network. It’s a win win.

        Companies get to go first to market and an expanded R&D base for ten years. Meanwhile IH owns part of every company for ever.

        • Omega Z

          LCD

          Oh, your good. I never bothered to think it out that far.
          I just missed out on a ton of money.
          I can see you’ve spent more time on this level then I have.
          🙂
          I spend to much time pointing out that 10Kw wont take a car very far,

  • deleo77

    I actually think that Mills will have a working prototype of the SunCell within the first half of the year. I am more in line with Wayne that Mills is close. He says he is down to engineering challenges with the SunCell that can all be solved. He put another $16MM in the bank this Fall to continue development, and he has big-time engineering companies helping him to finalize the prototype. All of the stars may finally be lining up for BLP.

    • US_Citizen71

      Or not, Mills has been here before. On the cusp of producing a commercial product and flush with cash. If the cycle he has gone through in the past holds true again, something will go wrong and the sun cell will not reach the market. About 2018 or so he will announce another device that this time he swears is the one but he needs 20-30 million to bring it to market. Rinse and repeat. This has been his history so far.

  • GordonDocherty

    I wonder if one of the problems of the 1MW plant was that the customer required to shutdown reactors independent of one another, or in sets (that is, configurable shutdown) to deal with variable demand as well as allow maintenance on parts of the plant while keeping other parts up and running. That would likely have required a redesign to allow reactors to be isolated either in groups or individually on an ad-hoc basis… This would be the best way to support 24/7 operation and also explain the number of computers (that is, controllers) required. In effect, the 1MW plant is a highly distributed network of 100+ reactors where the output of each can be summed to a total output, yet at the same time the network is able to be adjusted to accommodate loading on an ad-hoc basis by allowing individual nodes to be brought off-line without bringing the whole network down.

    • Omega Z

      Rossi has always intended individual control so as to add/sub output. Thus supplying 0 to 1Mw by 10Kw increments.

      Most likely that is the issues he contends with. Keeping them all insinc, stable & controlled output. Big difference between setting in a shop running idle & being in a factory under a load.

  • georgehants

    Those who don’t believe in magic will never find it.
    Roald Dahl

  • Gerard McEk

    Thanks for asking this Frank, I wanted to ask him the same for a while now, but I hasitated, because I never see my questions appear nor get an answer on the JoNP. I am quite happy with Andrea’s answer. It looks prommissing now. I would like to know what type of problems occurred.

  • Jimr

    I hope they have resolved the difficult problems, but I question the time frame. After the customer install was not successful Rossi said it would take a year to resolve the problems and Rossi is not prone to over estimate the time it takes to complete a project.
    I was shocked when Rossi said that the Ecat was not tested under load before being shipped.
    I also do not understand the relationship between Rossi and IH. It appears IH gave Rossi x amount of dollars for his invention and is giving him x amount per year to perfect it, with no input or control from IH.
    I would not be surprised (and I don’t know how this would happen) if Rossi and IH part company with each other down the road.

    • Bob Greenyer

      IH is a vehicle, I am not sure that IH will part from Rossi, but it may well be the intention of IH sponsors to part with IH, for a very tidy return. Rinse, repeat

    • Omega Z

      “After the customer install was not successful”

      You’ve misunderstood. The install was successful & is in operation 24/7 now. It is a pilot plant which is expected to have problems to resolve. Kind of like a shake down cruise of a new ship. In fact, you can expect this even when they are fully in production though far fewer & quicker to resolve.

      When asked on JONP, Rossi said they had run it for a couple months, but in their facilities, you would have little variation.
      There is only 1 way to load test something of this nature. Put it into actual working operation. You can’t simulate this in a lab or work shop. In a factory or processing plant, the environment is susceptible to many variables. Items being processed constantly being moved in & out causing major temperature fluctuations.

      It doesn’t matter whether you use Gas, Electric or an E-cat, They all will react different & at different rates of recovery. Gas & Electric have been around for a long time & most of this is well known & may need only minor adjustments in new installs.

      E-cats are new & will have a learning curve likely for sometime. It will vary according to the operation or process it is used for. A different business with different process requirements will be almost like starting from scratch. Improving in time with additional uses until a data base is built up.

      • robert munson

        There is no proof of that just yet. I am anxiously waiting for that day.

  • Gerrit

    Rossi and Industrial Heat cannot wait forever, or others will get the market, therefore we should expect 2015 to be the year of the cold fusion breakthrough.

    So at the end of this month, when we are about to start 2015, it will be the “final countdown”.

    Or not, maybe this story will drag on for another 3 years.

    • Gerard McEk

      I had hoped 2014 would have been the breahrough year … but also 2013 and 2012, So we have had your 3 years of waiting already, Gerrit. 🙂

      • psi2u2

        That is frustrating, but given the stakes and the challenges, not really unexpected.

        • Fortyniner

          The problem for me (I appreciate that my concerns are of no external importance) is that given the nature of the LT e-cat – the relatively high input heat requirement – the obvious paths of development are being ignored. The focus should have been on heat augmentation rather than heat production as such, i.e., the required input heat should have come from combustion exhaust, or from an already-hot flow such as superheated steam, rather than electrical power.

          There is a huge market for ‘economisers’, or devices that allow even slight increases in thermal efficiency of static plant, that could have been quietly entered without trying to achieve the high degree of stability and COP required by a free-standing heater. As I have said elsewhere I am also concerned by the seemingly one-track development path that focuses on one item at a time (in this case, one LT ‘pilot plant’) to the exclusion of all other possibilities including the HT reactor.

          So yes, the situation is very frustrating, and seems destined to get a lot worse over the coming months, unless someone other than Rossi/IH steps into the breech with a credible announcement.

          • ecatworld

            I don’t think the heat augmentation paths you speak of are being ignored — I just think they are harder to pull off (for reasons I don’t understand). Electrical stimulation seems to be the easy route.

            This week JC Renoir asked Rossi how experiments were going with the gas fueled e-cat and he responded:

            Andrea Rossi

            December 2nd, 2014 at 10:59 AM

            JC Renoir:
            We are working on this issue very, very, very hard.
            Warm Regards,
            A.R.

          • Omega Z

            49’er

            Many think Rossi should go for the Gold Ring. “ELECTRICITY”
            #1 You need steam under load & stable control. Check- Pilot plant in process.
            #2 You need stable high temps. Check already accomplished.
            #3 You need high temp Dry Steam under load, high pressure(up to 50 bars) & stable control to generate Electricity.

            Step 1 is the obvious path for learning to control the process at low temp steam, yet under load & maybe 2 bars pressure. High temps & high pressures(up to 50 bars) would be much riskier. People could easily get hurt, maimed, even killed. At this time, If I were IH, I wouldn’t let Rossi anywhere near such a system. He is to valuable an asset to lose. Everything would have to be done by live-stream. I can’t see Rossi going along with that without a fight. He’s a hands on guy.

            Anyway, When step 1 is completed, they can start licensing deals & move on to step 3 with income to provide R&D funding & the experience/knowledge base from step 1. I think this is a deliberate path of choice.

            Note To date, All Cash Flow has be in the out going. A few manufacturing license deals would likely be greatly appreciated.

        • Omega Z

          I’m still waiting for the extremely Cheap OLED TV’s & Monitors. Their available. Just anything but Cheap. It’s been about 8 years & counting. Likely a new technology will arrive 1st.

          2015- Rossi, Brillouin, BLP & a Dark Horse. No specific order.

    • Wayne M.

      Gerrit said: “Rossi and Industrial Heat cannot wait forever, or others will get the market…”

      Think Dr. Randell Mills. Six weeks from now, he said he will have a ‘field grade’ Sun Cell. If so, the game will be over for Dr. Rossi. If you compare each of their technological claims, if true, the Sun Cell is more powerful, general purpose, compact, and uses off the shelf parts and water for fuel.

      You will never hear from IH or the Dr. again. There will be no second place winner.

      • Omega Z

        Off the Shelf Technology. Not Off the Shelf parts.
        He will use/adapt existing technology.

        Multiple technologies is good. It gives one a choice on what best fits specific needs. It also provides competition & without that, most people aren’t going to bite at Mills Sun Cell at 20 cents per kilowatt. It’ll still be drill baby drill baby.

        Most don’t realize that Gas, Oil, & coal actually compete against one another. Especially in Electricity production & to a lesser extent heat production. If 1 gets to expensive, people can transition to another. Just prior to the Oil price dropping, there were many proposing LNG for transportation. Even Coal processed for transportation fuel…
        Extra Extra
        May be a Gas war brewing in Oklahoma. A Service station this morning dropped it’s price to a $1.99`9. Shortly after a Service station across the street dropped it’s price to a $1.98`9

        Don’t expect this in your neighborhood just yet. Per barrel price needs to drop another $25 before that happens…

    • ecatworld

      I actually don’t see this story dragging right now. There seems to be a growing interest and quite a few interesting projects taking place. I find it quite exciting.

      • Gerrit

        Yes it is exciting, but there is still so much more that could happen today or in the next few months:

        I would like to hear that Elforsk has actually started a research project and that Bill Gates is indeed funding a LENR project.

        I would like to hear from SKINR that they have made great progress.

        I would like to hear from NASA what the outcome is of their Widom-Larsen evaluation work and what their next step are.

        • Fortyniner

          “..still so much more that could happen today or in the next few months..”

          I do hope so, although I am no longer as sure as I used to be that Rossi/IH will be the source of such events. Rossi has, initially at least, singlehandedly returned cold fusion to a position of growing interest and acceptability, but when his history is written down, at the present (apparent) glacial rate of progress by IH, that may be all he is remembered for. IH seems to be in distinct danger of being left behind by other developments.