Engineering Analysis of the E-Cat Test (Mike the Engineer)

The following was submitted to this thread by Mike the Engineer

Warning: long epistle follows. Sorry, but readers will understand my excitement.
The test results are to me quite compelling. I will note the calculated COP includes all the heat loss from the wires supplying the current. Based just on delivery of power to the reactor I get more like a 5.6 number. In real life you won’t design your power supply wires to be glowing red hot. Bigger diameter wires and also you will recover that heat. You wouldn’t have a 5.6 COP due to inefficiencies in delivering power, but it would be greater than the 3.9.

Implications: Eventual energy independence for the USA. Clean non-polluting energy, certainly reducing carbon footprint. Electric bills cut in half, at least. This aids the entire economy. Europe will not have to be extorted by the Russians. I don’t see everyone going off the grid right away, but we will have cheaper electricity (50% cheaper?) and eventually will use less of it. Don’t see this as a replacement for gasoline in cars, just yet. But perhaps conversion to a modern Stanley Steamer some day. No flying cars. Jets and airplanes will still need aviation fuel. Coal, solar and wind will be hardest hit. No new nuclear plants built. Natural gas will still be in demand. Liquid hydrocarbons gradually trend down.

Okay, here is my engineering analysis: It appears you need to maintain electric power to the reactor, not just an initial jump start. This means you have a heavy power system (or else you stay connected to the grid). Efficient but heavy. This limits on aviation and also at least initially on cars.

Certainly can operate up to 1400 C, which is plenty good to extract work efficiently. I see a simple way to convert most of our existing power plants to the e-cat. Use a set of these reactor rods to heat all incoming air to very hot temps, say 2300 F. Hotter if the reactors can take it. Turn off your burners and force circulate this hot air through existing power plant boilers. You’ll make your steam, just like you used to. Steam will go to drive the same turbines to spin them and make electricity to the grid. Additionally, this is now a closed air circuit. You can recirculate this now cooler air back to the front and reheat. No loss of heat to the stack. You might need some natural gas for the superheaters. All your pollution control equipment can be dismantled. This would be a straightforward conversion easily performed by any number of engineering firms. Quick payback on capital investments as well.

With little or no costs for fossil fuel I would estimate your electricity cost might halve? From 14 cents to 7 cents per kilowatt hour. The entire economy would get a boost. Someone could check me on this. Other ways t o extrac t work would be, if it were possible, to weld or bond external jacket around these rods and directly heat your water. If jacket can be made of a material such that jacket can be welded to contain high pressure high temp water, then you have an even more direct transfer of heat. Molten salt would be a third alternative.
For home use I don’t see us going off the grid, you would need a miniature steam plant, unless there is some way to efficiently and directly convert heat to electricity, we don’t have that yet, unless Stirling engines could be used. But right now you would have a high efficiency energy source coupled with a low efficiency engine (Stirling). Needs more research.

However – clearly these reactors could clearly be used for direct heating of homes and office buildings and hot water. That’s non-trivial. Could it be used for air conditioning? Perhaps. There are refrigeration cycles that use heat for A/C. However, they’re inefficient and relatively capital intensive compared to other refrigeration technologies. But … perhaps. Overall effect would be to reduce your electric needs from the grid even more.

Benefits will not be immediate. More research needed. But IH doesn’t have to do all this by themselves. Once they can demonstrate a stable and safe product, they just manufacture the reactor components to sell, and /or license manufacture of reactors to trusted third parties. The American engineering system will figure out everything else. Implementation will take time however.

  • Warthog

    “You think it works because western civilization externalizes all of the
    true costs of production to far away places. You never see the true
    cost of production. Not unless you travel, or you lift the rock.”

    Mah-larkey. The US is the ultimate proof that THAT supposition is bologna. Precisely WHERE did the USA “externalize all of the true costs of production overseas”. And it was the US that finally put the final spike in it by supporting former colonies becoming independent countries, much to the chagrin of their WWII allies, Britain and France.

    “The bill for all of that ecological devastation is coming due soon, and
    then we will see that the last 250 years of our history have been run at
    a catastrophic loss”

    LOL. THE worst environmental track record has NOT been garnered by capitalist countries, but by socialist ones (with the exception of Western Europe).

  • LCD

    I would probably say that most people hate helping out people who don’t care and will be happy to do nothing.

  • LCD

    The lack of Free energy isn’t preventing us from building replicators, it’s the laws of physics.

  • LCD

    I share your desire to live in a world like star trek. I really do. But unfortunately it’s going to take a lot more than the ecat to get us to that point.

    Capitalism doesn’t cause corruption, people do. There is no government without some type of corruption. And to be honest I’d rather live in the USA than in any other place in the world. But it doesn’t mean I’m satisfied with our society, I’d like to see it change for the better. The free market economy however, is not something on my list of things to change.

  • Omega Z

    Not at higher temperatures
    At lower input for short intervals.
    Power on 25% of the time & off 75% of the time.
    The time intervals will vary.

  • psi2u2

    Linda, thanks for bringing Rifkin’s analysis into the discussion here. I agree, his prophecies may seem too good to be true, but they are backed by significant evidence and should be looked upon by all forward thinking persons as an ideal to strive for. Markets will always be with us, and that is all well and good, but there are other, equally important cooperative values that deserve nourishment and development in the “non-profit” sector.

  • Linda

    I see. Yes.

  • Linda

    Thank you Orsobubu, for your comment and your encouragement. I am working on a book, but am not ready to publish. If you have an email address I can contact you on, I will let you know about progress.

    Regards!
    Linda

  • Warthog

    “I see a simple way to convert most of our existing power plants to the
    e-cat. Use a set of these reactor rods to heat all incoming air to very
    hot temps, say 2300 F. Hotter if the reactors can take it”

    I think one can glean hints from the overall configuration of the tested “Hot-Cat” that this is precisely the intended initial mode of use. Note that the “cooling fins” on the alumina shell are oriented perpendicular to the axis of the reactor. This implies that the direction of coolant flow will also be perpendicular to said axis. And I think the fact that the current research is apparently totally focussed on a reactor housing DESIGNED TO WORK IN AIR also points in this direction.

    If the reactor was intended to be used “in a pipe”, the “fins” would be protrusions oriented parallel to the reactor axis.

    It also appears to me that the reactor is intended to be supported on both ends (larger diameter caps on both ends), again hinting that coolant flow will come in from the “side” of the “-Cat”.

  • LCD

    Lol I don’t think you have a clue what capitalism is. If capitalism is a bad thing then rewarding people for hard work is a bad thing.

    I think you are confusing capitalism and the free market economy with so called corporate America and the issues that they bring up.

    Capitalism can still work just fine without so called corporate America.

  • LCD

    LENR will absolutely not bring capitalism to a close. It will create a reneissance period. In your analysis you mis state one very important point. Almost free energy will lead to lower prices but you also say matter of factly lower profits, however you fail to provide any evidence that that would be the case.

    Simply put lower costs do not mean lower profits, in fact it’s quite the opposite.

  • Warthog

    Nope. The energy isn’t free. It will still take investment (capital) to extract the raw materials, process the raw materials, design (or redesign improved) products, get those products built, and get them to customers.. There will NEVER be any such thing as “zero cost production”. Much LOWER cost production, yes, but zero….no.

    Capitalism has one significant advantage……it works. No other economical system has done so, except in very small (and often religious) communities.

  • Omega Z

    There is a difference between a dreamer & someone lost in fantasy.
    You have a machine that with a touch of a button or the sound of your voice replicates to your hearts desire.

    But Nature is real & the Sun Spits a Massive Solar Flare. The Earth is hit by a EMP that destroys all you electronic toys. You are helpless. you no longer know how to do for yourself.
    The Perfect Mass Extinction Event of Humanity.

    No Worries. I mean Humanity may set itself up for such an event, But your fantasy fails at another level.

    E=Mc2.
    When your replicator makes the parts for that car you’ll want, You’ll need like 30 tons of Nickel to produce the energy for that 1.5 ton car given the reality of efficiencies Your 3D printer will like wise need material to operate.

    All these resources will still need extracted from the earth with huge machines & processed in facilities to make it all available & useable.
    All provided by the “using your interpretation” Capitalist system.
    And all the things you want to make is part of a free market system. Another philosophy that is alien to Socialism.

    Ironically, What you ask for would be provided/developed by that System you dislike do much, A Free Market, Capitalist system. The system that provides incentive for people to excel.

    As to corruption & greed, Has nothing to do with democracy, capitalism, or Socialism. To be rid of that would require getting rid of people. Note China goes on a corruption eradication from time to time. This is the corrupt removing the previous corrupt.. Nothing changed.

    • Obvious

      AFAIK, the world has been going to hell in a hand basket, in someone’s opinion, for as long as there has been hell and baskets.

  • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

    what is finished is the centralized taylorist capitalism, based on the PROBLEM that to reduce the cos of goods you needed HUGE factories, that needed centralized direction an d big capital.

    3D printers, internet, google search, E-bay, Uber, Blablacar, AirBnb, allows individual to be part of the big market…
    LENR add the possibility to participate the market of energy.

    centralised capitalism will die soon, and we will be back to the capitalism I see in emerging countries, a circle economy , a local economy of exchanging services…

    GW power plant are dead. gigantic taxi companies, will be replaces by self entrepreneurs (maybe already) connected by a platform like uber.

    the next revolution maybe is when laws will prevent any platform to take over the others, and maybe will force them to interoperate… net neutrality in a way.

    this is the real capitalism that economic-liberal (libertarian) demand, unlike the usual conservatism capitalism that DJ lords demand.

    the capitalism for everybody. the capitalism of the poor.
    not easy to prevent concentration, and despite state do the opposite today, this is the only role of the state to ensure that no big actor takeover the freedom to be a capitalist.

    this principle you will laugh is among the rule of LENR cities ecosystem…
    prevent a takeover by someone who don’t need the others…

  • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

    people forget that we have the same deflation with mecanisation and taylorism…
    price of goods like cars that were as expensive as planes, falled to what we know today.
    price of spoon that were sign of wealth, get to penny.

    we will simply find new way to be more happy, luxury, tourism, sharing of time, food… and energu willbe cheap…
    money is a measure of work , because you exchange it for something you value that someone cannot do without some effort that make him ask you some work in exchange…

    we have survived to the deflation of cost… thsi does not me monetary deflation.
    this mean that today middle class can have vacation by plane, and poor people can have a car or a moped.

  • GordonDocherty

    For those who are dwelling on the “end of the world as we know it”, this is not nearly the same as “end of the world”. The e-cat does not now mean the end of the world. Instead, it means that we now have the opportunity to lift hundreds of millions (and eventually billions) out of poverty – think everyone living at standards as high or higher than “the West” does now, without breaking the planet.

    Of course, the e-cat does mean a reduction in energy scarcity, so for those whose regimes based on repression, things won’t look so rosy. Why? Well, with even a moderate imagination, EDUCATION ACROSS THE WORLD, and the courage to now reach for the stars, the economic future for all now looks very bright indeed.

    No, it is not in economics that “negative” consequences will be seen, but rather in the repatriation of power away from repressive regimes. This is where the “fall-out” from the e-cat will be most felt: it is want, ignorance and malice that are the cornerstones of the repressive regime – and it is scarcity, denial of access to eduction and oppression of ideas and ideals (that is, ‘fair play’) that are the means by which they achieve it.

    Now, the e-cat and the internet are not panaceas against repression, but they are certainly powerful weapons against it. In the end, there will be those with a lot to lose – but only those who are already elitist, divisive, despotic and diabolical in their nature, surely no bad thing for the rest of humanity. Shocking and unbelievable as it may be for “the few”, the world was not actually created just as their plaything for them to indulge in their degenerative behaviour and primitive impulses driven by greed and power. Thankfully, just occasionally, something comes along that saves humanity from the worst excesses of those who fall into the trap of seeing themselves as (demi-)gods, and indeed, as any supernova-generated gamma ray burst pointing in our direction would soon prove, was not “theirs” at all, but rather a planet on which they live with 7Billion other individuals as a very small life-form indeed…

  • BroKeeper

    Thanks Astra.

  • Mike the Engineer

    Linda,

    Discussions of economic philosophy is important, but I know I will not have time to discuss in any meaningful detail. Perhaps we can have some kind of general agreement: You see with the Ecat an enormously transformative good. I see a positive good, but not transforming the essence of society or human nature. We both see good and positive things coming out of this, perhaps we can agree at least on that much?

    • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

      lenr is disruptive, not at the technology level (it is quite conservative in a way, just heat, no radiation, no revolutional need), but at the business model level.

      some business were based on the need to have a big capital, big political network, big knowledge of safety, big workforce in one place, …

      LENR don’t need that. it is disruptive like internet is for tourism. and soon like AirBnb and Blabla car is for tourism.

      • Omega Z

        Reality is it will be a mixed bag. Somethings will be more distributed at smaller scale. Other will not & can not be. Energy distribution will be the biggest redistributed item.

        Minerals will be mined when & where as always as will the refinement of them. Even with LENR, It will be cheaper to ship 1 million tons of Iron then It’s equivalent 50 million tons ore.

  • Mike the Engineer

    I didn’t realize my comment had been placed into a separate thread. I missed the chance to comment. Interesting comments below. Regarding Linda and deflation:

    First, there isn’t infinitely free energy. there will be capital costs and operating costs. What does seem to be indicated is we could have inexpensive energy. For example, even if fuel costs are zero, your bill from the power company won’t go to zero. The electric grid has to be maintained. The machinery has to be maintained. If you bought your own self contained power unit some day to go off the grid, that will cost money. Such a system would surely cost several thousand dollars. A car that never had to get gas again, would surely cost even more than our current cars. it would still have to be maintained.

    If energy costs less then money will be freed up for other activities, including research and investment. Cheap energy means most manufactured products and many commodities will be cheaper as well. Cheap energy means processes that weren’t feasible before can be installed. Research that before was too expensive can now be tested out. When an entire economy experiences a drop in energy costs, increased manufacturing will result. The entire economy now has more disposable income. In a reasonably open economy this will boost other business and capitalist activities. Cheaper energy will also permit increased travel which in turn will facilitate new businesses and new interactions.

    Another way of looking at this is to ask what if energy becomes very expensive. High energy costs are a drag on any economy. We can look at Europe for this. There are several reasons for Europe’s woes, but expensive energy doesn’t help them. If cheap and clean energy were to be widespread throughout Europe this would be a tremendous boost to their economy.

    Finally, the ultimate problems of the human condition are not external. Our problems lie within. Greed and lust for power are conditions that no economic system can cure. This is a spiritual problem, not an economic one.

  • Mike the Engineer

    I am replying above, if you are still following this thread.

  • Omega Z

    “limitless free energy allows zero cost”
    Come back to reality.

    Oil, Gas, Coal all start out free provided by nature.
    As are Nickel & Lithium.
    None are limitless free zero cost.

    All Cost=Labor & ROI then Taxed.
    I don’t know what you interpretation of Capitalism is,
    But Without some form of Capitalism, Society is Finished.

  • Omega Z

    I always thought that a 2 wheel space station with a shared center hub would be idle. Using nitinol to provide rotation by alternating nitinol bands in the shade side to sunlit side. Only the hub portion would lack gravity allowing for experiments. Also the hub would be stationary for docking. This gravitational effect wouldn’t require the expenditure of energy.

  • Omega Z

    Wrong Wrong Wrong.
    Do you know how much the computer you used to post this would have cost you in 1980.
    NOTHING. Only a few Corporations & Governments would be able to afford it. Thru technical advances, costs were reduced allowing more people to afford them. Deflation as you call it occurs around us all the time.

    The term Capitalism is simply/complex. Simple as in acquiring/formation of Capitol. Usually associated with the accumulation of Money to build/make something. Complex because it can actually refer to many things. Money, people, labor, resources of all types. In the past, China’s greatest capitol was manpower. They’ve used that capitol to create another. Money. This money allows building/buying things

    You will find Capitalism practiced in all system. Socialist or otherwise. The main difference is whether it’s primarily practiced by society as a whole(The West) or state sponsored.(99% in North Korea) How’s that working for them.

    Capitalism wasn’t some Greedy persons creation. it is a Natural Phenomenon that society uses to grow & benefit from that some academic gave a label to.
    If Capitalism should end, Society will soon follow.

    The introduction of LENR will possibly propel society to the point where there is enough resources to go around for all, But there will always be some with more. Technology will change the system, but Capitalism will exist as long as people do.

    The system you rail against allows personal gain. You have shades of gray from poor to rich. In a socialist system you have the few elites & everyone else is poor. With no incentive, things level to the bottom. Once you understand Human Nature, you will understand why Socialist systems that some think so great will never sustain itself. Even tho you have people game, abuse, & take advantage of the western economic system, It works because it takes advantage of human nature.

    When I was younger, An old farmer passed on some wisdom to me. He said When you have the option, you should always work with nature. You’ll usually fair well. When you fight nature, you nearly always get your a$$ handed to you. As a farmer, he dealt with nature daily. I’m sure he learned that lesson the hard way. He knew what he was talking about…

  • Ophelia Rump

    If the COP is 6 or above and temp 150 C you can power a traditional Steam Piston at only 20% efficiency and generate heat and electricity for your home, and sell back to the utility for a profit.

  • Ophelia Rump

    Reducing fuel costs to near zero is a stimulus. Consumers buy more, so producers must sell more. It is an increase in purchasing power of every dollar. There is more competition among dollars to buy goods of the same volume of availability, driving the adjusted price of goods up as the actual price decreases, increasing profitability while increasing purchasing power, thus driving higher production. Win, Win, Win.

  • Buck

    I have a simplistic question.

    Why is it a naive idea to use alumina cement to attach 2-3 thermal couples to the central body of the reactor?

    The researchers spoke with concern of the specific design of the main body which enhances heat dissipation. If the attachment points reduced the heat dissipation capabilities then they could reduce the input power.

    ??

    • Warthog

      There were already thermocouples in the reactor. Their primary purpose was to control the current fed to the E-Cat by the electronic Triac circuitry, but there is absolutely NO reason that they could not also be used for measuring purposes.

  • Christopher Calder

    As I stated previously, I believe that the real COP of the latest E-Cat in SELF-SUSTAIN MODE (the normal mode for commercial operation) is in the 8 to 12 range. In that mode electricity is only applied to the E-Cat about 25% of the time. The fact that the new E-Cat needs no lead shielding tells me that they have learned more about the nature of the reaction and have found ways to make the reaction produce more heat with less energy input. I believe they will release the new COP numbers after the 1 megawatt industrial plant has been in operation for a long enough time for its control systems to be perfected and finalized. At that time I would hope that the installed reactor performing useful work that makes the owner money will attract attention from the US television news media. I expect prime time interviews with both Rossi and Darden. I would predict that local TV news will to be first, followed by one of the major national television networks.

  • EEStorFanFibb

    If Darden’s plan is realistic and he can destroy thermal coal use in industry over the next decade or so, I dont see this having any detrimental on the ongoing and quick expansion of solar and wind which is already cheaper than coal and gas in many places and only getting cheaper. Eventually, in a couple decades, power generation will be a nice mix of renewables with a smattering and ecat electrical power generation. And nothing is going to stop battery powered electric motors from a absolutely dominating transportation by 2025. I do expect that ecat technology will be adapted for heating buildings soon enough as well. Of course economically speaking, unconventional fossil fuel extraction will be a lost cause as well as oil prices will be too low to support anything but conventional 100 to 1 EROEI ratios. I also expect energy intensive carbon neutral biofuel production to get a big boost from ecat adoption into the industrial markets.

  • Daniel Maris

    Perhaps we should give the phases of development some names:

    Primary Phase/Hot Water Phase – Use in industries such as food processing and for domestic heating.

    Secondary Phase/Electric Generation Phase – Used to generated electricity at grid level.

    Tertiary Stage/General Usage Phase – Home E Cats/LENR powered automobiles, ships, trains and planes.

  • Daniel Maris

    If the electricity is cheap enough you can make your hydrocarbon aviation fuel from air (supplying carbon via carbon dioxide) and water (for the hydrogen) thus avoiding drilling, refining and all the rest of it.

  • Ophelia Rump

    You can always generate hydrogen to power you flying car. Try not to get depressed.

  • Curbina

    I think this is an analysis that applies to a short to middle term scenario, and assumes that no one else than IH is developping LENR based technology. Under those assumptions is very accurate. But I am counting in other’s being able to develop in paralell and speed up the massification.

    Other assumption was that the COP reported was the highest possible, thus narrowing the relatively fast achievable uses. Anyway, it’s a good and realistic analysis, one that I think we can expand as we get to know more about the tech capabilities.

  • Jag Kaurah

    If you can heat air, could we not use gas turbines to generate electricity?

    • http://lenrftw.net LENR G

      Yes or even a fuel mixture. Rossi mentioned a while back that Industrial Heat had already started some R&D on some jet engines and also using turbines to generate electricity.

      • Jag Kaurah

        Exactly

        So the limitations mentioned disappear over time

      • BroKeeper

        GE through the US Aircraft Reactor Experiment (ARE), developed
        a nuclear direct air cycle heated jet engine in 1955 with a 2.5 MW thermal
        nuclear reactor. This program produced the successful X-39 engine, two modified General Electric J47s with heat supplied by the Heat Transfer Reactor Experiment-1 (HTRE-1). This project ended after 6 years and about $1 billion devoted to the attempted development of a nuclear-powered aircraft had ended in 1961 mainly due to many nuclear safety concerns.

        We now understand there is a IH E-Cat Connections to GE/North Carolina Company through Power Generation Services, Inc as posted earlier in the E-Cat World “The Industrial Heat Web of Connections includes GE”.

        Even though it is not a partner in Power Generation, a Jan. 28, 2014, PoGens press release notes that GE’s Digital Energy business made a strategic investment in the company. Soon after Andrea Rossi announced on March 11th he was working on a jet engine: “Rossi: Testing with Industry Specializing in Jet Engines”.

        Jet/Turbine engines can be used for either propulsion or electric power generation both major interests of GE.

    • Ophelia Rump

      Water has a better thermal transfer rate, that is why steam is used. Air thin. Water dense.

  • John

    Why do you believe only americans can do everything??

    • http://lenrftw.net LENR G

      Just because he exhibited confidence in American engineers does not mean he thinks nobody else can do it. Why did you read it that way?

      • John

        Im American and I see clearly that america (MIT) postponed this for too long time. And I see clearly that this invention (If it really works, and I still don’t believe) is an ITALIAN invention because they insisted on Pons and Fleishman being right.

        • http://lenrftw.net LENR G

          I’m American too, but I just don’t see any of this as a nationalistic thing. Rossi is Italian working in a newly minted American company that’s dealing with the Chinese and being triple checked by Swedes. Whatever. The world needs this tech. May the boldest win and spread it far and wide.

    • Ophelia Rump

      The propaganda machine keeps telling us that while it feeds us a mixture of dumb and emotional syrup. It’s no more our fault than anyone else who is being fed by a propaganda machine. You probably have your own brand.

      Welcome to the monkey house.