Oil Prices and LENR: View from a Trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (bthprimo)

Thanks to bthprimo for sharing his perpective here. This was originally posted on this thread.

Hi. My first post on ECW!! I have seen a few posts here over the past few months suggesting to keep an eye on the energy markets for a hint that the Ecat report is coming. This may be the only area where I might be able to bring some insight to the ECW community.

I work on the trading floor at the CME in Chicago. I don’t trade energies (mostly trade grains), but I always have a crude oil window up and I watch it out of the corner of my eye. The other day (Sep 30th), the crude oil futures broke sharply and was down $3.50 from the previous close. There was quite a bit of chatter around the floor about it, but nobody could find a news story that would account for such a dramatic break in crude oil. There were a even few big energy traders around that were scratching their heads. The next day, the futures tried to bounce, but failed and fell off hard later in the session and the stock market got hammered. As PD noted above, we’re currently down another $1.75 in NYMEX and Brent today.

To me, this is a signal that the report is coming soon, and it is already causing ripples throughout the financial world. The people that trade the energy markets heavily are the most well informed people on the planet. The kind of people that monitor cell network congestion inside shopping malls rather than wait for a consumer spending report to come out, or spend billions installing private fiber lines to shave 7ms off their round trip times from New York to Chicago.

With all that is going on in the world in Ukraine and the Middle East, crude should be lurching it’s way toward 110 per barrel, not tumbling down to 88. I understand that it will be years before the Ecat has any real effect on gasoline consumption, but the futures markets are just a reflection of collective human emotions and perceptions.

BTW, I can’t thank Frank enough for maintaining this website, and thank you as well to all of the people who contribute their insight and wisdom in the comments section. I am extremely nervous and equally excited about the future.

bthprimo

  • Alain Samoun

    Like many here, I would like to believe that oil,gas,coal and nuke industries start to be scare of LENR/CF. But a look at statistics shows otherwise (See http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/ )
    Energy prices fluctuations seem more related to the usual casino game and political situation.
    It is probably too early and we will have to wait longer, until real CF reactors are on the market.

  • Broncobet

    Not a coincidence but certainly not related to LENR, Rockerfellas is just liberal geenwashing.The oil price would not be affected by LENR even if real. If peace breaks out and demand is low the price will erode more.Worldwide coal and natural gas would be logical places to spot the”LENR Signal”especially for future contracts at least five years in future.If the 2024 nat gas drops from $4 to $2 pop the champaigne as a new energy source will have announced itself.

  • Old Git Tom

    Straws on the wind? The recent (2014) UN climate conference-farce attempted to bolster the fraudulent & discredited ‘science’ of global warming with a propaganda hootennanny: clear signs of panic/desperation up top. There are gazillions gambled on the financial market in foisting carbon-trading taxes on the world. AFAIK, these were intended to compensate the Big Boys & Girls for the coming losses, consequent on carbon fuels becoming largely obsolete. Big Oil/Gas (BOG) has steered the policies of the govs of the West for about 100 years. The UK con gov has recently appointed an ex-BP banana as head of its bureaucracy – another sign of panic? The BRICS alliance is undermining the almighty petro-dollar. I sense VERY large political upheavals coming.

  • Broncobet

    hey ,you got the ads from oil trading! I’m patting myself on the back for this,this is extremely satisfying as we all like our suggestions being followed you’re welcome. Aren’t the 2024 contracts for natural gas $4? If it quickly gets to $2 I will have to gulp and admit that the LENR(or something like fusion) is upon us.

  • Broncobet

    Don’t scare me with the website down, I need my fix!! Where’s the button to click on where we send you a little to keep this thing going? I must be blind not to see it, but I can’t.

  • Broncobet

    Please don’t do that, oil is the last thing LENR would affect, natural gas and coal would be more affected, of coarse stocks move up and down but LENR is unlikely to affect oil any time soon.Besides if you were right,the futures would give a much purer play since oil could go down but the stock go up be cause of a discovery.Imagine if peace starts breaking out oil would stumble down the stairs.

  • Broncobet

    Primo! Thank you! Yes it’s me your referring to that asked for help in forecasting the arrival of LENR technology through the patterns in futures because there is simply no way for humans to not make lots of easy money with little risk.Of course if anyone had data that LENR was real and coming word would get out.The recent action has no relation to LENR,that prices are going down with the Air Force bombing refineries just shows how much supply there is and how weak China activity has been. The day that LENR affects oil(likely never) is much further out(yes you addressed it and are right that oil can be affected by the general feelings) but natural gas and coal and further out contracts. Keep watching and keep posting guest posts as I find this very interesting.Thank you very much more will be revealed,I’m sure.

  • alset
  • Ophelia Rump

    What would happen if you used concentrated Ni62 in an E-Cat?

  • Andreas Moraitis

    Still more interesting than the question who sold stakes in oil fields would be the question who bought them. Will the taxpayer be liable for the losses in the end?

    • http://sifferkoll.se Sifferkoll®

      On the long side in crude trading we have “managed money”, ie. the big funds which is mainly taxpayer savings/pensions. These are also the big owners of large oil co’s and oil assets. So they will take the blow when big oil get valued at cash, which probably will be bought cheaply by the banks. Of course some countries and their taxpayers like Russia, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, UAE, Nigeria, Venezuela, Norway, etc. will not benefit from lower oilprices…

      • GreenWin

        Norway’s “sovereign fund” is now largest in the world, yes? They must be invested in non-fossil interests. And hopefully supportive of clean water, health and hygiene projects globally.

        • http://sifferkoll.se Sifferkoll®

          One of the largest I believe according to wikipedia owning 1% of all stocks globally… They seem to have some ethical considerations like arms, tobacco and environmental damages. Apart from that I guess they eat anything… The norwegians wont be hungry for some time, and they can always go fishing. 🙂

        • Broncobet

          Norway is great.

  • http://sifferkoll.se Sifferkoll®

    As of Sep 23, the CoT report (cftc.gov) shows that the swap dealers (JPM, Goldman Sachs etc,) are a massive short of 418,000 contracts in crude. Regardless of what they know, they will make a lot of money if the oilprice drops. That is a fact. So far though, they’ve been very consistant in their counter trend trading to staibilize market. I made a follow up some time ago on the report on oilprice.com: http://www.sifferkoll.se/sifferkoll/?p=195

    • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

      are you aware of some move on the volatility trading, beside oil&energy ?

      about current moves the biz radio say it is because the EU central bank clear stated that they could not do all, that it was up to the government to make structural reform and create real growth…
      some people understood that as it is hopeless.
      maybe I’m naive.

      the day the VIX get crazy and not simply the DJ/brent get down, I think it will mean LENR is in the price.

      LENR is both good and bad, and unpredictable, but in a huge way. 8~/

      • http://sifferkoll.se Sifferkoll®

        I’m not sure. Maybe in the really short term. But VIX mainly rise in bear markets and I expect most stocks to go up when there’s a reliable prediction of cheap energy in the future, because most things will get cheaper to produce and the consumer will generally have more to spend (spending less on energy). Also the relative value of usable knowledge (compared to commodities) will be higher, so wages will go up. And the economy will benefit hugely. The Internet boom will be considered a drop in the ocean. I guess for the PTB controlling infrastructure and hard assets (like oil fields and land) will be less important and controlling people more important; like their transactions of value in the financial system and the flow of information in general.

        • pg

          Agree 100% with your analysis.
          The only problem comes if the new technology is not ready for the market but there is no more investment in old technology either.
          That is why it is paramount to come out with it when you are ready to sell a product, or licence the technology, which seems is what IH is trying to do.

          • http://sifferkoll.se Sifferkoll®

            I don’t worry to much about that. There will be plenty of easy access conventional reserves for years to come. These are profitable to extract even at $20, without much investment. Any other investment in un-conventional reserves will be money lost anyway. The same will apply for all research in and tax subsidized efforts in wind, solar (most), biofuels, etc. Instead of putting all this investment and taxpayer money in these doomed technologies it should of course immidiately be put inte LENR research. My hope is that a positive report with a COP>3 and proof of nuclear reactions will trigger research and investments in many places instantanously.

            • GreenWin

              Sifferkoll, if oil goes to ~$60 where does that put natural gas? Short and long term?

              • http://sifferkoll.se Sifferkoll®

                The equation should be the same. Unless production costs can compete with oil at $20 (like in the middle east) I would put most natural gas under the “un-conventional” and money lost. At $60 most reserves will still be profitable, but investing will of course seize when there is no hope for future increased demands.

              • Broncobet

                Natural gas is already somewhat stranded as it’s transportable by pipeline but to get to the rest of the world from the US it must be liquefied which about doubles it in price.

        • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

          yes maybe people will invest more in the market growth than in the volatility caused by this good revolution…

          Good remark about controlling more and more human assets, instead of real estate. invest in Google, not in GM.

          • clovis ray

            I like, the good revolution,,,,, smile

  • EEStorFanFibb

    hmmmm…. maintain market share by dropping the price and screwing
    over shale and tar sands producers that need $70, $80, $90+ a barrel to
    break even?

    Why should an economy put up with all that risk and
    volatility BS when electrons can be harvested cheaply from sunlight,
    used to get you around and power your lifestyle for a fraction of the
    economic, health and social costs of oil?

    • Ophelia Rump

      You left out the part about fracking the crust of the Earth in to a quivering earthquake ridden volcanic slag heap.

      • GreenWin

        Yes! It is a bit like drilling a hole in one’s head and sticking a fire hose in it.

        • Ophelia Rump

          After setting off detonations in on and around your head for decades.

          • Fortyniner

            You guys are only seeing the downside. Just think of the positives – like being able to ignite your tapwater to save on heating bills.

    • Broncobet

      Why do you think?? Because electrons cannot be harvested cheaply, are not ready when needed, are not mobile, are not concentrated. Let me know when people of the earth use electrons more than oil for transport.To say nothing of all the medicine and products made from oil.If LENR worked the first place it would be used would be Alberta Tar sands.

      • EEStorFanFibb

        you wrote: Because electrons cannot be harvested cheaply, are not ready when needed, are not mobile, are not concentrated….

        Actually that isn’t the case anymore. solar and wind are as cheap as anything and only getting cheaper plus batteries are steadily getting better/cheaper as well. look to the future of what will be not the past of what was. transportation is definitely going electric. In less than 10 years nobody will want to buy an new ICE vehicle.

  • Ophelia Rump

    Great article, thank you for sharing that unique perspective. I hope you followup.
    We could benefit from a subject matter expert sharing insights.

  • BroKeeper

    Frank, is there a greater market influence the ECW has than we realize? If you look at the Brent
    Crude September 30th chart (link below) there was a significant volume turn (small chart below graph) after 6:00PM CST Tuesday evening to close. What is interesting is this occurred after my
    comment on the effects the released E-Cat report may have on the oil market and the influence it may have on the psychological ‘October Effect’ posted 4:56PM EST just a few minutes earlier.

    Perhaps it’s just a coincidence but the timing is uncanny. If this is the case, you have a tiger-by-the-tail with this very influential LENR blog on the oil markets that few traders can perceive. If this little suggestive comment has that kind of trading volume effect can you imagine what will happen once the report is released and pings you will receive, if positive?

    https://www.quandl.com/CHRIS/CME_BB1?utm_source=quandl&utm_medium=graph

  • Doug Cutler

    Rossi process requires surprisingly little nickel. Just a fraction of annual production could power entire world. The effect of positive new test results will be far more pronounced on oil and gas futures.

    • Ophelia Rump

      Rossi has said that the Nickel can be reprocessed. That would reduce the consumption to the amount transmuted.

  • Heath
  • Obvious

    Nickel inventories are high, and the price has been sliding for a while now.
    I looked into cornering the Ni62 market. You could do it for about $5 million.

    • Ophelia Rump

      Shh. Someone is probably invoking your plan already.
      How would you approach the problem of Isolating the Ni62 from from the rest?
      Would you have to secretly get into the supply chain near the top and skim the product as it passes through your distribution chain? Or do you have an better alternative worked out?

      • Obvious

        I worked out a better plan than buying up the world supply of near-pure Ni62, which I won’t share until my position is prepared.
        There isn’t very much Ni62 to be had, actually. Barely much more than few kilograms are currently available, and a couple of months are required to make more.

        • Broncobet

          TY Frank.

  • EEStorFanFibb

    Oh man that’s a fun post. I’m hoping this oil futures price drop is really connected to LENR. might just be stranded assets/renewables related though.

  • Gerard McEk

    I have already sold my Shell shares a few month ago, unfortunately a bit too early. If these ripples are indeed caused by the announcement that the report is due, than there is much more interest in the world about LENR than I expected.

  • Buck

    bthprimo,

    thank you for sharing your perspective; very interesting! Certainly, it is my hope that you will be able to provide more feedback when the ITPR2 arrives in a week or so.

    • pg

      +1