‘1 MW Plant will Close the Experimentalism Era and Open the Commercial Era

It seems that a great deal is resting on the performance of the 1 MW plant. In the post below from the Journal of Nuclear Physics, Andrea Rossi emphasizes how important this plant will be to the future commercialization of Industrial Heat’s technology now and into the future. Today he wrote:

Gillana: It is extremely important that the 1 MW plant does not work well for any days, but reliably for at least one year without major problems, because what we are aiming to is the real industrial application of the so called Rossi Effect, not another test. The next 1 MW plant has the task to open the era of the industrial utilization of the so called Rossi Effect, with ratings supplied not from experimentalists, but from satisfied Customers that make money with our plants. Obviously R&D will continue for ever, but the next 1MW plant will close the experimentalism era and will open the commercial era, in which we will no more discuss if the so called Rossi Effect works or not, but the discussion will be about its industrial evolution and, eventually, its domestic application: provided the results of the TPR2 and the 1 MW plant will be positive, and not negative, because: THE RESULTS COULD BE POSITIVE, BUT ALSO NEGATIVE AS FOR WE KNOW SO FAR.

Interesting that Rossi should mention not only industrial applications but future domestic ones. If industrial applications prove to be safe and reliable after long periods of operation and data collection.

As we look at the opening of the ‘commercial era’, one thing we don’t know anything about is Industrial Heat’s business model. It is possible that they will be selling these plants outright to customers, but it’s also possible that they will retain ownership of plants they deploy and sell the energy produced to customers. One thing I would think they are going to be concerned about is the possibility of their plants being broken into for the purpose of discovering the E-Cat’s secrets; if they keep ownership of the plants it would probably be easier to protect them from being tampered with by customers.

Still, Rossi is not jumping the gun by announcing success at this point. I guess there is still plenty that could go wrong at this point, so I am sure this first plant is going to be very closely monitored. To have it run with no major problems will be a highly significant achievement which really would signal the opening of a new era for Rossi and Industrial Heat.

  • jousterusa

    There might be some wisdom in referring to the next plant in singular. With each one bringing in $2 million, it’s a pretty big deal for a small company. I know we’re all thinking hundreds, but I think that may have to await miniaturization.

    • Fortyniner

      I think it’s quite likely that units will be leased to the users rather than sold outright. No-one is going to stump up millions for an untried technology, and in any case IH will probably want complete control over their equipment. Initially they may even have to offer inducements such as free installation, free maintenance, perhaps even a certain amount of guaranteed free heat energy in order to get the ball rolling.

      • Omega Z

        I agree with you 100%. In fact, Considering how disruptive this could be to the business of concern, It could be all free for a set period of time. Followed with an extended arrangement at a latter date if this should become IH/Rossi’s showcase.

      • Donk970

        You are absolutely right on this. Only after these things have been around for awhile and it becomes common knowledge that they are reliable will companies want to buy outright.

      • jousterusa

        4119 61st Ave. Ter. W., 305C Bradenton, FL 34210 941-462-2616

        I think that’s also the model Randell Mills and a bunch of solar firms are using, with the solar people charging about 70% of the normal cost for power and selling any excess back to the grid – if the Koch brothers don’t get those resales stopped, as they are trying to do.

        Sincerely,

        Joe Shea
        Editor-in-Chief
        The American Reporter
        http://www.american-reporter.com

  • Anon2012_2014

    I’m getting more concerned Industrial Heat/Rossi is having problems.

    The date of the third party test published in a peer review journal has pushed out indefinitely from the end of the first Quarter.

    Further, there has never been a date given on a shipping commercial plant, one has never been observed publicly without NDA, and one has to ask the economic question: if they are so successful why haven’t MANY of them been ordered and shipped.

    I was looking for a third party test to be published in April. It’s now August.

    The time line keeps getting pushed out without validation. The clock is definitely ticking.

    At some point we have to say that the reasonable time has passed for an announcement by IH/Rossi and we cannot reasonably expect an announcement to come in the future. I am thinking that this is by the end of October, i.e. without the publication by the end of October of ALL the data in the peer reviewed journal, it is unlikely to happen ever. After all, how long does it take a bunch of peer reviewers to correct their pre-prints? Summer vacation is over.

    • Fortyniner

      I am also impatient for developments, but there doesn’t seem to be much point in setting arbitrary deadlines for an announcement. Regarding publication of the report, all sorts of problems with various individuals are possible, and Rossi probably genuinely doesn’t know when, or perhaps even where, it will eventually see the light of day.

      It does seem possible from the pattern of Rossi’s comments that everything on the R&D side may not be going as smoothly as it might, and an additional stage of development may have become necessary. Also, the ‘hot cat’ seems to have been put aside for the moment (or may have gone into deep cover) and the exclusive focus on the two-stage ‘cat-mouse’ type feels to me like a stopgap measure while major problems with the hot cat reactor are being addressed. Of course, this may be a strategic move, if it is felt that the less disruptive ‘low temperature’ technology may meet with less opposition than hot cat reactors, and so is being used as a stalking horse for the introduction of CF.

      Either way, I wouldn’t give up on Rossi quite yet (or even in October).

      • JDM

        It would be problematic if electromagnetic interference were an issue with the hot cat. I sure wouldn’t want to be flying in a jet if the hot cat engine was playing slap-an-tickle with the flight controls.

        • Omega Z

          EMF’s are present at high temps & is of interest as a possible route to direct electrical production in the future.

          • JDM

            It would be interesting to learn if those EMF’s had induced voltage to the heating elements that result in the occasional thermal runaway.

      • Zeddicus Zul Zorander

        Didn’t we just learn that the new 1MW reactor is of the “hot” type? I have no information that there is something going on with the development of the hot cat or that the mouse configuration is a stopgap measure. Did I miss something?

        • Omega Z

          ZZZ
          The new 1MW plant is the Low temp E-cat, tho it is very likely that it’s seen some major changes/improvements 1 being the mouse/cat combo.

          • Zeddicus Zul Zorander

            Thanks Omega Z.

            From JONP:
            “You are perfectly right: in fact we are designing the new
            1 MW plants, for hot temperature, and the dimensions will be those of a
            cylinder with a diameter of 1.2 m and a lencth od 0.4 m.”

            It says “for hot temperature” so naturally I assumed the new 1MW container is a hot-cat based reactor. The dimensions hint at the “Tiger” variant which is also a hot-cat based reactor if memory serves.

    • LuFong

      Rossi first mentioned a visitable commercial plant end of 2011.

      Andrea Rossi
      November 28th, 2011 at 6:48 PM
      Dear Herb Gills:
      Today we sold in the USA a 1 MW plant which will go to a normal Customer. This installation will be visitable by the qualified public.
      We wait to have completed the contractual procedure through the attorneys, then we will give communication. It will be in the North East of the USA, where I have been in these days.
      Warm Regards,
      A.R.

      • Heath

        And within a year, Industrial Heat LLC was created according to the SEC filing. A lot has been going on in the background.

    • Omega Z

      “I was looking for a third party test to be published in April”

      So you were looking for a report at the same time the testing was wrapping up. While at that time, Millions of Data points were being shuffled around to several University teams for analysis.

      The 1st, 3rd party test report was published. There is no reason to think the 2nd test wouldn’t be.
      There are also those close to the inner circle who have stated that Regardless of the results, Good, Bad, or otherwise, The report will be published. A requirement of all parties involved. IH/Rossi, Elforsk & those doing the test.

  • Gerard McEk

    To me is is clear: the tests were positive. Why else would IH invest in the new development of a 1 MW unit? Why else would Rossi cry that the end of the proving tests have arrived and the commercial times are approaching? This all belongs to the commercial offensive which will take off after publishing of the third test. Now that is clear that it works, Rossi/IH should also make clear where the energy comes from. The only way to prove that it is from nuclear origin is to investigate the ashes. The calculations of loss of mass, should be included in the third report. I hope it all fits, because this is the only way to get it accepted in the scientific world and open gates to the mass media. Kan’t wait to see it happen!

  • Owen Geiger

    Yeah, but his process is somewhat different. What do others think?

    • pelgrim108

      “Rossi effect” is a usefull short term. I would be glad to honour Rossi by using the term.

  • georgehants

    Andy, the good feeling would come from seeing things change for the better.
    All the while that people are so gullible as to believe the rubbish put out by all establishments and authority then the crimes will continue.
    The religious like crap that science fools themselves with is ridiculous and comical.
    And yet it seems that most “scientists” would rather just follow their priests made-up teachings than ever do an hours Research on a subject, well away from Wiki-rubbish and only from source.
    Best

  • jousterusa

    This is great news. and it coincides with the publication of my book, POWER, A Story of Cold Fusion, yesterday ion Amazon. It;s about a clandestine roll-out of the E-Cat intended to escape the tyranny of fossil fuel companies. If you put the following URL in the navigation space of your browser, it may take you straight there: http://www.amazon.com/POWER-Story-Fusion-Joe-Shea-ebook/dp/B00M9UIL8C/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1406839837&sr=1-1

    • psi2u2

      Congratulations, Jousterusa!

      • jousterusa

        Many thanks! It’s pretty exciting for me. It’s my fourth short novel, and all three of the others have been lost.

        • georgehants

          jousterusa, checked Amazon, just the digital version at present.
          I am old fashioned, will certainly buy if it appears in book form.
          Best

          • Owen Geiger

            You can print digital books at quality print shops and most people wouldn’t know the difference. Print the book cover separately on thick paper. Binding looks just like a regular book.

            • jousterusa

              So far as I know, it’s the only book about him that Rossi has praised…

          • jousterusa

            It’s the “if” that kills us old guys, georgehans! :) Thank you!

  • Fortyniner

    I sincerely hope that when Rossi says “The next 1 MW plant” (.. has the task to open the era of the industrial utilization) he means this generically, i.e., “The next 1 MW plant” refers to a production design that addresses any shortcomings in the ‘pilot plant’ rather than a single device.

    I also pray that when he says “It is extremely important that the 1 MW plant does not work well for any days, but reliably for at least one year…” that he is not suggesting that the pilot must run trouble-free for a year before they move on to “The next 1 MW plant”.

    • LuFong

      It sounds to me that Rossi is indeed referring to this next plant he is delivering which is soon to be operational and visitable. This is a tacit admission that previous sold plants have not worked so well and may have only been pilot tests. This also does not mean that there will not be further improvements but according to Rossi this 1MW plant has to work in a commercial environment to establish it’s place in the energy production hierarchy.

      I don’t believe this of course. If it does work it needs to work “well enough” until the next one comes along. Think Microsoft and Windows.

      • Fortyniner

        I agree. I am unhappy and concerned about the seemingly linear process whereby a prototype leads after a period of months to a pilot, which after a while in turn leads to ‘the next plant’, which must run trouble-free for a year before the next step – and so on. Such a plodding progress (if it is the case) is incompatible with the desperate urgency of the need for a clean energy source.

        As the plant seems to be small (max. 10x8x8 feet.maybe smaller) then parallel testing of several/many pilot plants would be feasible, with units being swapped out as failures occur or major design improvements are made.

        I find the apparent lack of urgency frustrating in the extreme, and can only hope that Rossi’s remarks are intentional misdirection while a far greater effort than implied is being carried out.

        • Owen Geiger

          With all the emerging competition, including other new technologies, I’m guessing Rossi/IH are going all out balls to the walls. Remember, this stuff is very complicated.

        • LuFong

          Although I freely admit I have no idea what is going on, this may be the result of Rossi and IH’s business model. It seems to me that Rossi is controlling and developing the technology rather than releasing it to the world and that IH wants to sell manufacturing licenses (versus actual plants) once the technology is developed well enough. Rossi has made statements supporting this over the years and private equity firms are in the business to make money, not products.

        • John De Herrera

          ” lack of urgency frustrating in the extreme”
          So it seems from the Rossi discussions – however we DO NOT KNOW how much ‘sweat and tears’ are occurring in the background/development. jdh

  • GreenWin

    Lots of old laws and beliefs taking a beating lately. This confirms the position AR is putting the 1MW unit in. Commerce or “the market” will confirm new physics in advance of theoretical science. This is IMO healthy, as it re-enables the small, entrepreneurial inventor and product designer. NASA has just validated an “Impossible” propellent-less microwave thruster for space apps. Mills’ hydrinos have two new University validations. Astronomers admit their entire theory of planet and solar system formation is completely wrong. http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2014-07/31/nasa-validates-impossible-space-drive

    When we acknowledge we don’t know something — it opens a limitless horizon of possibility. That rumbling sound comes from the foundation of the ivory tower. http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2014-07/31/nasa-validates-impossible-space-drive

    • georgehants

      Dear GreenWin, I think I can be excused for saying, I have been trying to make these points for years.
      It is an opportunity, will it be wasted by this corrupt capitalist society that is determined at any cost to maintain control over every human being, simply for their own gain.
      We all have a chance to help to do something to bring about a change for the better.

      • mcloki

        Oh George. That same corrupt capitalist society determined to gain control will make acceptance of LENR and it’s variants quicker than the iphone. The people now making money will cling on to the way they make money because it puts food in their kids mouth and it’s the only way they know how. When we start making money selling LENR equipment we’ll slag coal, nuclear and NG as the devil incarnate just to sign people up to a LENR refuelling contract. Capitalism is a destructive force. Solar is already killing coal.

        • georgehants

          Thanks mcloki, If people wish to do some intelligent thinking then —–
          All society should be based only on production with all the associated needs to hopeful satisfy most desires.
          No wasteful finance or economics would mean 50% of people out of work now.
          Able to help others and enjoy life not work pointless jobs just to keep the rich and powerful rich and powerful.
          A slow move now to production only based living, would mean everybody would have an I phone free very quickly.
          And the E-cat would be freely being Research by all with no restrictions.

          • GreenWin

            I thought you would find the recent reversals in mainstream science satisfying George. The market still works. The market in which the proprietor has a thumb on the scale – will never work. :)

            • georgehants

              GreenWin, if only as you say people had the guts to speak the Truth, science knows almost nothing.
              What a Wonderful place to start out students from, open-minds, challenges, no religious teachings of ridiculous Dogma.
              —-
              I wish we could meet and discuss a new system of fair distribution of production, we will just have to differ a little on some things.
              I think we agree on many.
              Best

              • GreenWin

                In heart all things can happen. I look forward to a long luncheon or dinner, perhaps with fellow Peter, to iron out the lumps in distribution and other items. :) Before time runs short!

              • Broncobet

                We stand on the shoulders of those who came before.

    • pelgrim108

      Thanks to AlainCo for allerting us to this.

      EMDrive replicated 3 times, confirmed by NASA ?
      http://www.lenr-forum.com/forum/index.php/Thread/526-EMDrive-replicated-3-times-confirmed-by-NASA/

      Renewed hope for EmDrive with NASA validation
      http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/07/renewed-hope-for-emdrive-with-nasa.html

      • GreenWin

        Alain is an LENR Guardian deserving of the Ordre national de la Légion d’honneur in my honest opinion. When all is public and known, I shall write President Hollande to recommend Alain.

        • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

          I’m afraid one day Montebourg will call me for a news that may make him jealous. (I did nothing, I relay…)

          EmDrive is a good surpise I was getting skeptic … but it seems that ignoring things that works without a theory is very common in modern science.
          it is a shame.

          • Omega Z

            “things that works without a theory ”
            MUST be an error in measurements.
            Come on Alain. We all know that. :-)

      • bitplayer

        At the bottom of the NASA article:

        http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20140006052

        “Test results indicate that the RF resonant cavity thruster design, which is unique as an electric propulsion device, is producing a force that is not attributable to any classical electromagnetic phenomenon and therefore is potentially demonstrating an interaction with the quantum vacuum virtual plasma. Future test plans include independent verification and validation at other test facilities.”

    • robyn wyrick

      These are very big indeed. My favorite is this, from Wired.com — ”
      Have We Been Interpreting Quantum Mechanics Wrong This Whole Time?” —
      http://www.wired.com/2014/06/the-new-quantum-reality/

      This joins my favorite, fluid dynamics with quantum mechanics. Very thrilling article — though, obviously the article publishes a minority opinion.

      Really great to see the videos too.

      • fritz194

        Thx. for the link.
        This makes lots of sense but needs an ether-superfluid.
        As we know there is no ether which could be identified using Michelson-Morley Experiment… so if there is (and it seems almost obviously that they tried to avoid the word “ether” in that article – same as with LENR ;-)))) – than it has properties that render MM experiment useless because of side-constraints.
        Its somewhat critical to derive the existence of an unknown property by such a “simple” experiment. If “ether” is somewhat superfluid – there would be lots of turbulances and standing waves surrounding matter – that MM might fail per definition.
        Same with CF and expected gamma.
        rgds.

  • Barry8

    If the 1MW is made out of a number of smaller individual units and one breaks down or needs repairs or even refueling perhaps the overall unit can continuously run uninterupted.

    • Curbina

      Exactly what I said a few comments below, this side of the technical possible downsides is covered by design.

    • ecatworld

      Yes, pretty sure Rossi has said there are extra units put in each plant so they can be switched out without interfering with the plant performance.

  • Jan Nie

    I don’t understand last Rossi turn. He said one month back, thy are in commercial phase and testing is over.
    Things are turn this way when inventor is backed by someone who is invested into soon obsolete solar and other “green” tech.
    They must jettison these now undesirable “assets” first. Progress must wait.

  • http://www.lenr-forum.com/forum/ barty

    Is NASA testing the e-cat via a dummy company?
    Rends at LENR Forum seems to found an interesting link:

    http://www.lenr-forum.com/forum/index.php/Thread/509-NASA-Testing-of-LENR-ECD-Thermal-Generator-by-Continuum-Energy-Technologies/?pageNo=1

    • Daniel Maris

      Why is it supposed they are linked to the E Cat?

  • malkom700

    When plants are working, they will surely commercialization used, but their implementation will be slower hereby.

  • Curbina

    This confirms to me that when Rossi talks about negative results is from the economic/commercial point of view, not the technical one. A plant that fails to meet commercial competitiveness is Rossi’s worry, not the validity of the “Rossi effect.”

    • Daniel Maris

      Maybe technical to the extent that if there is unplanned maintenance, that can be v. costly/disruptive.

      • Curbina

        That would be a technical constraint, but I recall that Ecat 1 MW plants have internall redundance specifically to avoid that problem.

        • Daniel Maris

          True, but equally LENR appears a much more delicate – for want of a better word – process than say incineration of coal. It might well require more monitoring and intervention that simpler fuel processes.

          • Curbina

            At least by now it seems you might be correct, This is still a very new technology.