How Close Might we be?

On the Journal of Nuclear Physics today, a reader named Andrew asked a question of Andrea Rossi that I am sure many of us would echo — but maybe not want to ask outright:

Dr Andrea Rossi,
For all of those people that support, believe and cheer for you, why don’t you give back a Little something? Such as some fresh new pictures of the working Plan or the hot Cat or whatever..
That would Not violate your nda anyway

Rossi responded:

We are close to the moment in which abundance of what you are requesting will be poured in this blog and, maybe, somewhere else.
Warm Regards,

I guess the word ‘close’ is as imprecise as the world ‘soon’ — very much open to interpretation. But I think I sense from Rossi a bit more excitement in some of his recent communications. Here’s another comment he made today which is a bit cryptic, but seems to express a measure of confidence and perhaps some defiance:

Happy July 4th and remember that July 4th is not just a barbecue chance, but is maily to remember the fight to get Independence from any oppression. Freedom is not for free, also freedom from the oppression of persons that do not understand a revolution.

I get the feeling that the second half of this year could be an important one in the E-Cat story, where questions can be finally answered and the nature of what we are dealing with can be more clearly understood. In the past Rossi has been sometimes overly optimistic about his projections, so I suppose we should be careful not to get too carried away.

  • US_Citizen71

    You must have been real fun as child, I bet you protested in front of the comic book rack when a new Marvel “What if…” book came out. ; )

    As for your assessment of SHT I tend to agree. If you paid close attention to various forums concerning the first announcement of their tech by PESN you would notice that SHT current claims parrot what many posted as possible hypothetical out of the box ways that it could be working. My guess is that they are just performing a chemistry trick much like the one the navies of the world use to produce oxygen on demand for fire fighting breathing equipment. Shipboard compressed air bottles not only are bulky but a dangerous thing to have around, so instead chemicals contained in something about the size of a large liquor flask is used to provide oxygen to the firefighters on demand.

    My bet is they are using a metal to contain adsorbed hydrogen and they dissolve it with acid to release the hydrogen in the metal and from the acid. They have admitted that they can only run the machine for the mater of several minutes to an hour currently. If it was merely breaking down water into hydrogen you would think it would be able to last much longer. Then there is the lack of any gamma from all the fission that is supposedly going on. : )

  • Bernie777

    Exactly what my friends have been telling me because they are tired of me talking about Rossi, but I am going to have the last laugh. (:

  • asey

    For positive side. Splitting oxygen to hydrogen from waters of the oceans, may prevent flooding low levels of land, from rising waters of the oceans.:))

    • US_Citizen71

      Actually it would be the opposite because when you burn that created hydrogen from one molecule of water you will create nine molecules of water.

  • Omega Z

    Yes, It’s called the Rossi PR department. Contact JONP for further information. :-)

  • US_Citizen71

    Animal life cannot breathe CO2, water or the Earth’s crust, so the oxygen would need to be extracted from all three. Extracting it from water (hydrolysis) would make it very tempting to keep and burn the released hydrogen in a hydrogen economy, which would exacerbate the problem. Extracting from CO2 would leave you with the same temptation to burn the carbon and regardless would remove oxygen from the atmosphere in the long term as oxygen would become water instead of O2 as it now eventually does. Extracting oxygen from the earth’s crust therefore would be the best solution. Any and all energy used to extract oxygen from the Earth’s crust would be a negative in the overall energy equation of SHT’s tech. The COP wouldn’t look so good for SHT is putting it mildly.

  • Christopher Calder

    Solar Hydrogen Trends latest test results.

    http://pesn.com/2014/07/03/9602514_New-3rd-party-test-results_on_solar-hydrogen-trends_show-over-1000x-overunity/

    COP above 1000? If this is true, then it will beat everything.

    • US_Citizen71

      I have mixed feelings about Solar Hydrogen Trends technology. If it is real then it would be a potential source of energy, but at a price that I’m not sure is worth paying. That price would be oxygen depletion of the planet. The apparent claim is to be changing oxygen into hydrogen a great feat but it is depletion of oxygen from the planet. But further depletion of oxygen from the atmosphere would happen when the hydrogen is burned. Nine oxygen atoms will be removed from the atmosphere for every molecule of water converted and then burned, along with one atom of oxygen permanently turned into hydrogen. When ratcheted up to meet global power needs I’m not sure we could stand to lose the oxygen required even for one year of power.

      • Daniel Maris

        But isn’t there a lot of oxygen trapped in CO2 – so with v. cheap energy you could split the CO2, couldn’t you?

        • US_Citizen71

          CO2 mostly gets returned to atmospheric O2 eventually. It is part of a natural cycle. The issue with burning fossil fuels is that the oxygen is trapped in that cycle for thousands to millions of years but eventually nature will cycle it out. The SHT tech would trap atmospheric oxygen as water there is no natural cycle to reverse that.

      • Christopher Calder

        Well, if this turns out to be real and not some kind of crazy candid camera style hoax, then I am sure scientists will figure out how long we could power the entire world using this technology before oxygen depletion starts to be a significant factor. I suspect, without doing any figuring, that it would be thousands of years before it created a problem. In the mean time, we have simplified hot fusion coming (Lockheed Martin) and many flavors of LENR to produce electricity and heat. I think it is far too early to worry about the Earth running out of oxygen.

        • US_Citizen71

          In 2008 the world used 493 quadrillion btus of energy or the energy equivalent of about 75.8 trillion gallons of liquid hydrogen. Which would require approximately 143.5 cubic kilometers of oxygen to burn.

    • Omega Z

      If true, It will just be 1 of several new energy sources each finding it’s own niche.

    • Gordon Docherty

      Of course, if the Oxygen can be broken down into hydrogen, releasing energy, and then re-fused to heavier elements, releasing energy, rather than simply “burning” the hydrogen, then that would be very interesting indeed. The question, then, is where is the extra energy coming from? An easy enough question to answer in an OPEN system, but rather difficult for those who like to keep things CLOSED. Further, if this is so for a combined Oxygen -> Hydrogen -> Intermediate Elements -> Oxygen nuclear cycle (as would be possible if S.H.T. is correct and a suitable system engineered to effectively extract energy in both the fission and fusion half of the cycle), then is this also the case in other areas (such as, for example, open versus closed electrical circuits)?

      • Omega Z

        If SHT has found a relatively easy way to do this, It has a lot of implications. You can read my Not so serious post above to bachcole, but with what has a plausible possibility in the future.

    • asey

      The real problem with this discovery of SHT is, that this was made by Russians.
      The other thing is, that from all the mericle sources of exotic and free energy writen on pesn.com, nothing was realized in real production.
      Very often it was just scam using Sterlings naivete.

      • bachcole

        Do you mean “The real problem with my believing this discovery of SHT . . .” If so, I agree 100% that Sterling will write just about anything as long as it is “gee whiz wow”. I don’t get the Russian part. Are Russian’s a nation of con artists. We are not talking Nigeria here. Russians have actually accomplished a lot. Is there a heavy concentration of crooks in Russia that I am unaware of.

        Getting back to Sterling and pesn.com, Sterling has a lot of weighty advertising. That means that he has a lot of traffic. This means that Sterling is doing OK financially. I doubt if he wants to upset the golden goose by waxing with his critical thinking. I would guess that he just sees his job as putting the information out and letting everyone else decide.

        I am also very skeptical but hopeful. 1000X seems awfully high, and I worry about the lose of oxygen, and I need many more sources besides Sterling telling me that they got their fingers burned.

        • Omega Z

          bachcole
          We can make Oxygen… We may lack the knowledge at this time, but it’s possible. Along with everything else.

          If SHT has actually discovered a way to break Oxygen down to Hydrogen by a simple process, I would think some Government agency, DARPA or whoever would be keenly interested. There’s some serious implications here. If you can disassemble & understand it, the next step would be learning to reassemble.

          Imagine a space fairing society traveling the Galaxy merely swooping into the Suns Corona or a Large Gaseous Planet scooping up huge quantities of Hydrogen, Providing them with all their needs. No Large stores of various necessities, but a single element to be transmuted/assembled to what they need & when. Material limitations no longer exist.

          Enough of the Optimist. A more Pessimistic view.
          It’s Not So Simple. I have a son who’s great at dismantling things to it’s very basic components. Taking Zero Notes. He doesn’t have a clue how to put it back together.

          That’s when he brings it to me. Expecting Me to fix it. So I Do.
          Then I hand him back his Microwave & tell him it’s all fixed. It works perfect.
          That’s when he responds & says, But Dad, It was a Toaster Oven! :-)

  • Pierre Ordinaire

    Hot Fusion Funds Fade

    “Budgetmakers in the U.S. Senate have moved to halt U.S. participation in ITER, the huge international fusion experiment now under construction in Cadarache, France, that aims to demonstrate that nuclear fusion could be a viable source of energy.” Physics Today, June 2014

    White collar welfare boondoggle bites a dust. Eh, what goes round…

  • Gerrit

    How close might we be, how close might we be
    I really need to learn
    ‘Cause we’re living in a world of fools
    Breaking us down
    When they all should let us be
    We belong to you and me

  • clovis ray

    thanks for dropping by, e-cat world needs some dissenting opinions, to have balance .

  • georgehants

    Science Nordic
    Science has taken a wrong turn and forgets to prioritise basic research, says Nobel laureate and quantum physicist Serge Haroche
    If science is to move forward, researchers must be free to prioritise basic research.
    That’s the message from the French Nobel laureate and quantum physicist Serge
    Haroche, who thinks modern society isn’t dedicating enough resources to
    research fuelled by curiosity.“The balance has tilted, making us
    focus too little on basic research, and I think that’s dangerous,” says
    Haroche, who holds the Chair of head of Quantum Physics at the French
    university Collège de France. “We have to protect basic research if
    we’re to have scientific breakthroughs in the future.
    http://sciencenordic.com/nobel-laureate-science-moving-dangerous-direction

    • GreenWin

      Mr. Haroche makes a good point. Basic research, not intended to yield short term products or services, is overlooked today. Some LENR research would fall under the basic study of condensed matter or anomalous heat – which is in fact what SKINR at University Missouri is doing. Were funds better distributed to basic research and alternative approaches to applied research, we might see technological progress.

      ““Historically, the major technological breakthroughs have come from
      basic research which wasn’t originally conducted for that purpose —
      progress just happened, because researchers were curious about nature,”
      Serge Haroche

      • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

        I am more negative, from the knowledge of French science.
        It is a corporatist fight of state funded science facing the evolution to private funded science.
        What he says is a problem, but it is not our current problem.

        today basic science is funded according to workers union fight, to corporatism battle, to established power into decision comitees.
        the situation is so impossible to rationalize that the government, in stealth, try to dump public research. the result is that productive basic science is dumped first, as usual when you try to reform by invisible funding reductions.

        another problem beside corporatism is “big science” bias that make politician and decision makers prefer big projects they can be proud of (ITER, LHC, NASA) instead of a network of tiny project.

        the move to private research is also a problem not because it is private (private research does basic research in USA) but because French companies are desperately non profitable enough (taxes, rigidities, big corps dominance)…

        yes, basic research is good too (TOO, applied research is good TOO), but in France we do too rational and short term applied research, and too corporatist basic research supporting old scientific lords who abuse young researchers who have to escape to US to find a place where their articles are not stolen,and where they can find ideas for promising researches, while they lack of political/union support in CNRS.
        We also focus too much on big corsp, big projects, big science, too centralized.

        Cold fusion as it is done today cannot be funded really, except as pirate research like what did Biberian in spare time (he is retired today).

        My best model are SRI between basic research (McKubre) and applied (SiRI), or Lockheed Martin (between corporate labs and skunk works team).

        Pirate research, protected inside a big organization, like Biberian CNRS , NASA GRC, Spawar, NRL, is also a model of minority report research.

        Also of course Edisonian research based on crazy entrepreneurs like Edison, Rossi, Wright brothers is key to real innovation… most real innovation seed is not created by academic, nor by corporate labs… it is done by crazy dreamers, entrepreneurs, retired researchers, privately sponsored heretic labs, uncontrolled military labs

        I defend not a “basic research” but a practically driven curiosity research and minority reports, funded instead of big science.

        I defend an anarchist vision of science, ùixed with the usual “normal science”, joining the critical respect of Thomas Kuhn for “normal science” and the anarchist vision of Feyerabend.

  • Fortyniner

    No point bothering to compete with me in the sheer pettiness stakes I’m afraid.

    • georgehants

      Ha. I am good like that, I noticed Admin made a spelling mistake the other day and was going to put up a new Topic on the error, but then relented.
      Best

  • Omega Z

    The early photos Rossi published on the net still had embedded data in them that unintentionally exposed more then intended. Read my post above

  • Daniel Maris

    Scientists found it very hard to control electricity for about 50 plus years after its discovery in the late 18th century.

  • Maxfield Q Norse

    Yes, there are those who only wish he would commit to something so he can miss the deadline and they get to laugh and point fingers. Enough of them, they wore out their welcome long ago.

  • Maxfield Q Norse

    That is interesting. And what if the report indicates processes which would contradict Rossi’s theory?

    It would require extreme self confidence combined with the great good fortune of being correct in theory to pull that off successfully.

    • Preston Brown

      He wouldn’t have time to revise his theory even if they were released together. Even if we don’t get the theory now, they likely had a lot of things planed to release like specifics about products. He’s part of a larger organization now, you can bet they were working hard on ways to make a big splash. I can imagine some relief at a month or two delay, but any longer would likely impact their marketing strategy so they decide to release things before the report.

    • Omega Z

      I give Rossi fair marks in his ability in order to have gotten as far as he did on his own. He had to have had some insights. However, He also worked closely with Focardi & since then others.

      As Professor Giuseppe Levi(Physicist) appears to no longer be directly involved with the TIP2, He may now be directly involved with Rossi’s work on the Theory.

      Hmm, Lets check his CV, See if he’s qualified.

      https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.unibo.it%2FSitoWebDocente%2Fdefault.aspx%3FUPN%3Dgiuseppe.levi%2540unibo.it%26View%3DCV&edit-text=

      One project he was involved with-
      WIKI-ZEUS experiment: ZEUS (particle detector)
      The ZEUS experiment studied the internal structure of the proton through measurements of deep inelastic scattering by colliding leptons (electrons or positrons) with proton in the interaction point of ZEUS. These measurements were also used to test and study the Standard Model of particle physics, as well as searching for particles beyond the Standard Model.

      Nah, He just a rookie at all this. :-)
      Back On Topic, I’d expect them to publish the Theory only after the report. Just to make sure of no confusion. If they differ, they can prepare their arguments accordingly.

      • clovis ray

        Dr. rossi is ingenious , and he surrounds himself with friends that are ingenious, it from this type of people that change the world, not people that set in their ivory towers, telling people that there is nothing unknown. and collecting their grants,

  • humblemechanic

    ‘So near and yet so far’. What will be the next stroke of bad luck that
    will prolong this state of affairs?

    • clovis ray

      but not sarcastic remarks,

    • Omega Z

      Yes, It’s a sad dilemma.
      Every year they extend the start date of ITER & request additional Billions of taxpayer dollars.
      When will it end? ? ?

  • clovis ray

    hi, guys, the 4 of July statement was profound, as for his first statement, what I think he meant was, what i call the coming out party,to be this fall or this year for sure,, i would think that they would hold all events , and then come out with the biggest bang, they could,factory visit, news conference, and maybe have some kind of big conference at the triangle park, or maybe do it all together, what fun that would be for the ones here in the states, and others that could make it.

    • Maxfield Q Norse

      I think all in the same quarter would be the equivalent of the big bang.
      A little less difficult to pull off, and longer in the media eye.

      I hope to see you all in Triangle Park!

    • jousterusa

      Ray, I really like your idea of a grand debut, with the machine- hopefully providing the power for the factory where it’s held, a big news conference and a responsible publication. Many complain about Randell Mills’ frequent papers that they are not published in the premier journals in the field but in second-tier publications. Even if it took a lot longer, publication in the APA Physics Journal, in Science or Nature would make a long wait worthwhile. If the publication is in one of those second-tier albeit peer-reviewed journals – well, not so much.

    • Omega Z

      clovis
      I think I’d prefer a period of time between the report, the working plant, a press conference..(maybe over several weeks) Spread it out a little.

      A single flash can quickly pass & be forgotten or never seen by many people. Several weeks of news buzz has a more lasting impact & even those who only occasionally pay attention to the news can’t miss it.

  • Johnathan

    Have you been sleeping ? 2013 report and H.I takeover, how about that?

    • humblemechanic

      H.I. take over is just a ‘corporate’ affair. An actual working installation
      is still ‘so near, yet so far’.

      • GreenWin

        Trolls perish sans fertilizer they crave. :)

  • ecatworld

    AR Today: “I understand you all, but when we publish photos they are analized from professionals to the most microscopical level. Our photos are never trivial, if analyzed to that level, even if to you they can appear trivial. We will give all the specific possible information as soon as we will open the visits period. It won’t take too long, as well as it won’t take too long the publication of the report.
    Thanks to all of you for your strong attention, I understand the feeling, but we have to avoid a mess and an infinite theory of one ended discussions, not having the possibility, in this stage, to answer to the unavoidable tsunami of questions.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

    • BroKeeper

      (In other words he is too busy to get entangled with a barrage of speculations)

    • http://lenrftw.net LENR G

      As we approach the end game a lot of interesting things could happen.

      * The circle of those in the know should grow as preparations for plant visitations, PR and the third party test report go into high gear. This increases the likelihood of leaks or detectable changes in behavior.

      * Competitors might feel pressure to go first and steal some thunder. Brillouin might announce who their South Korean partner is or even allow visits to an installation in progress. Nichenergy might come out of the shadows. Nanortech could mail Nanors to prominent university and government labs. Lenuco or Clean Planet could hold demos of their prototype reactors. DGT, if they ever had anything real, could publish the independent verifications and business partners they claimed to have. Other now-hidden players, including some large companies, could announce their LENR research or even product timetables.

      * If the Obama Administration is aware of this development — and it’s hard to tell, but if I had to guess I’d guess, yes — then they will begin laying the political groundwork for the announcement. You could actually argue that’s already happening, with some of the regulatory decisions of late.

      Sometime in the next 0 to 24 weeks, we will reach ludicrous speed, or perhaps plaid.

      • Buck

        May the Schwartz be with you.

      • Maxfield Q Norse

        It all that happened, it would remain unimpressive, as unimpressive as the rest of the treatment of LENR.

    • Omega Z

      “publish photos they are analyzed from professionals”

      Of this you can be sure. To make sure no embedded data is released with it,(D/M/Y-Time: Location) Or to make sure Blackout rectangle can’t be removed with a click of the mouse or that Cropped images are really cropped & not just zoomed in that can be zoomed out. So that nothing not meant to be seen is accidentally exposed. These Issues occur when the original data is still embedded with the photos.

      Rossi & Company learned eaarrrly on about these problems. They now have others do it for them.
      Dang it… :-)

  • Facepalm

    I have been told that the third-party report will definitely be finished before Christmas 2014.

    • Maxfield Q Norse

      It could be suppressed from publication in any major journal. Until the review process is completed no one knows, the process involves review and rejection with feedback, followed by resubmission. One way or the other the report will eventually be released, if only on the internet.

      • Fortyniner

        The process can also involve demands from reviewers for extra experiments to clear up quibbles, and in this case such demands could be fatal to publication as the central expt. can’t be repeated.

        (Unless the journal editor really wanted to publish the paper, in which case he might override the quibble, or even choose to use another, less demanding, reviewer).

        • Maxfield Q Norse

          Hah, we go there first and used up the “never happens” argument like back burning a forest!

        • Omega Z

          Always the Possibility that it’s been refused publication in a mainstream magazine & IH/Rossi &TIP all said screw it, Will just publish elsewhere rather then continue butting walls. Something that could become eternal.

          With an operating plant, this easily becomes a viable option. Say what the may, It’s hard to ignore a working plant in an independent facility.
          Of course a working plant makes it harder for a MS Mag not to accept it without soon looking Ridiculous. Their Master will want to know- How Did You Miss That. Time for a management shake up.

    • Jonnyb

      Who told you, can you name your source?

      • Facepalm

        No i don’t want to tell you, but it is a very reliable source.

        • Omega Z

          Facepalm
          You can post back to me who told you this.
          I Promise, I’ll tell no one. It’ll just be between us.
          :-)

    • Giuliano Bettini

      Now.
      Andrea Rossi
      July 5th, 2014 at 9:00 AM

      “….it won’t take too long the publication of the report.”

  • Daniel Maris

    I’d say he’s referring to publication of the paper. He’s referred to it being published in a “magazine” – is that the Italian talking? Or does he mean a “Magazine”? Certainly hooking up with Time or Newsweek or some such publication would circumvent a lot of the academic side of things.

    I think possibly it’s all about getting the results confirmed and published. I think perhaps after that IH have a complete plan of action ready.

  • Pekka Janhunen

    I get the impression from Rossi’s language that he thinks we are close to some announcement, maybe matter of days or weeks rather than months.

  • georgehants

    Just offer my sympathies this morning to our American brothers who have had to get by for many years without being a part of the Wonderful British Empire.

    • Fortyniner

      So sad – but they are doing reasonably well, considering that handicap.

      • Omega Z

        We can buy our Tea ready to drink from a bottle or can.
        Even out of a vending machine.
        Now that’s Progress. :-)

        • georgehants

          It must be true that if the U.S. had stayed with the Brits then Brazil would now be famous for tea growing and not coffee.

          • Frechette

            If we had stayed with the Brits we would be like Canada.

        • Maxfield Q Norse

          We still pay taxes on it.
          Didn’t we win that war? What the hell happened!

          • Omega Z

            We won the right to double down. We do everything bigger. Even Taxes.

            Wait, I think we been had…

    • BroKeeper

      You forget George it was our elder brother the Brits who led the example with the Magna Carta Libertatum.

    • Frechette

      Wasn’t it supposed to last a thousand years and have had it’s finest hour during WWII? Winnie the Pooh Churchill did everything to wreck it without realizing it. Must have been his viceral hatred of the Germans and too much whiskey.

      • Broncobet

        Sir Winston smoked cigars soaked in rum and died at the the of 95, outliving your life time by a wide margin.

  • georgehants

    A rare good scientific report on scientists who work away in the dark to find the Truth but are openly willing to admit that they do not have a clue.
    If only all of science where to grow-up and stop trying to fool everybody into believing they know anything beyond a few, very useful but trivial things about are reality.
    Perhaps a scientist on page would like to give me one example of anything that science knows that is fundamental.

    • Omega Z

      George
      Why you read this crap?
      You know as well as I, We know all there is to Know.
      There’s nothing new to learn. Now leave that curtain alone & behave. :-)

      • georgehants

        Omega, yes of course, I am so silly, I should just believe all the constant scientific crap that is poured out on the public and themselves. Ha
        To speak out against religious doctrine can be dangerous.
        I have learnt my lesson —-
        THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS COLD FUSION OR UFO’s

        • Omega Z

          “I have learnt my lesson —-”
          NOW were taking…
          W-a-i-t a minute. This ain’t George, Who are you? :-)

    • Broncobet

      They can’t tell you anything.

  • georgehants

    I think that Mr. Rossi has tried very hard to placate the establishment in the past, he has mainly kept his anger to the obvious skeptics and abusers, but just recently he is showing some real venom against those in authority etc. who are giving problems to Cold Fusion.
    I think his patience is running out with the people we often highlight on these pages as, corruptly and incompetently delaying Cold Fusion and many other like subjects.
    He is not naming names but his implications are clear.
    —–
    “but is maily to remember the fight to get Independence from any
    oppression. Freedom is not for free, also freedom from the oppression of
    persons that do not understand a revolution.”
    A Rossi
    ——
    This applies to all areas of life and every individual,
    Cold Fusion is just the tip of the iceberg,

    • Fortyniner

      Morning George. Agree – I’ve noticed that too. I get the impression that Rossi may be contending with ongoing and possibly serious attempts to block his progress in some way, and is naturally getting quite angry about this.

      • Pekka Janhunen

        Could also be that he thinks we are “that close” that he can let his long-suppressed impatience run partly free for a while because in a short while it cannot make much damage. Like a winning marathon runner in the final lap. Well, I concur this is quite heavy reading between the lines…

  • Curbina

    IMHO close is better than soon. That said, given the past record of Rossi, we are at least a couple of months ago of ant major development, I mean, to know about it.

  • Giuliano Bettini

    Alpha Centauri is the “closest” star. Hope something nearest. :)

    • Fortyniner

      Actually that’s Proxima Centauri – but I get your drift.