Wild Speculation E-Cat Test Guessing Thread

I’m a little nervous to do this, because I think it’s wise not to expect too much of this current testing regimen — but since we are in the dark about so much, I thought it would be interesting and maybe entertaining to put a thread up where people can discuss their expectations about the results of the long-term testing in terms of the expected performance of the Hot Cat. I am posting a comment just received from ECW reader Lilylover to kick off this thread:

Dear E-Catters:

Omega Z’s calculation will indicate that Dr. Rossi has the best quality of fans that are not only smart but also very tenacious, like himself, in following him.

So, COP 35 is the educated guess. I’ll make an emotional guess of COP 60 along with the prediction that the report-makers will totally depart from the “COP” terminology.

Sorry to overanalyze Rossi’s words… If a long term test was less than satisfactory for first half of the test, expecting that to improve in the later half of the test on its own will fit the popular definition of insanity.
Therefore, the first half of the test must have been “good enough” or “investment grade” or “about 10% ROI (for a new small firm)”.

Only then would the IH continue to support perpetuation of the test despite contracts. Because, as smart as Rossi is, team of IH lawyers can always advise to bankrupt the “LLC” to exit the obligations to save money. Stretching this a little further, if first 1/3rd of the test was bad, then the later 2/3rd would have to be exceptionally good to make up for it. That also means, the first 2/3rd has to be at acceptable level. Since magic won’t happen between first 1/3rd and second 1/3rd – they would have stopped the “long term” test after the failure of the first 1/3rd. They did not. It simply means – to IH, so far, it must mean – “investment grade” success. That is good enough. Not great, but good enough. They’ll take that.

Now, if things have gone wrong in the long term test, what can Rossi possibly do to fix it in 3 days? Nothing.
The 0.99 vs 1.01 is great academic discussion but we all ‘know’ our interest is in proof of at least 2.5 or say 6, like he likes to claim.

If the team is competent, and the dispute is between 5.5 vs 5.8 it does not matter to us. That can be resolved in 3 days. If the dispute is between 2.5 vs 5.0 – there is a big error on part of the calculators which Rossi can help rectify in 3 days. For that to happen, he must have the true data without sabotage. His lawyers must have tried for milestone-data of the ongoing test to better equip him in his ongoing R&D and future defence.

But, like Rossi says, he has had no data. Then he must have installed some mechanism that will yield him true data. If the data is true, he can analyze it in 3 days.

The biggest question becomes – How does Rossi know that the exact replica of the real data is provided to him? How will that happen? The good data will be used to raise capital and not so good data will be used to bargain Rossi’s rights. How can we know – if that will not happen?

I believe if a man as smart as Rossi can trust IH, I’ll let IH have my goodwill. If the dispute is between 0.99 vs 6, we (I) know IH is sabotaging Rossi to delay the E-Cat. In the event that IH cheats Rossi, my last shred of faith in humanity (lawyers) will evaporate.
I’ll still continue to trust Rossi.

So, as a guessing game, I request you to make COP guesses or any other guesses (Admin – good topic to poll?) that will make you feel happy about the “Official Long-Term Independent Report”. I say COP 60 for heat … And an extra prediction for his other current work — COP 6 for direct electricity.

Have a good day!


So the question at hand is — what result will make you feel happy about prospects for E-Cat technology?

  • Christopher Calder

    The demonstrations Blacklight presents just do not look credible to me. They look like just a spark machine run by high voltage electricity. I hope I am wrong. If I had money to invest, I would invest first in Defkalion, second in Rossi, and third in Brillouin.

    • jonnyb

      Have the feeling Rossi has it cracked, don’t discount Santilli and Thunder Fusion though.

  • Fortyniner

    There is also the possibility that EM-induced magnetostrictive effects might cause movements in the Ni lattice that could ‘crush’ H nuclei closer to Ni Nuclei wherever there are faults/discontinuities within the lattice, or perhaps within the lattice itself. This might be the purpose of the ‘frequencies generator’.

  • Omega Z

    Sorry Roger.

    Skeptopaths is what I meant. I just abbreviated it..
    I also believe Rossi has the goods.
    However, a small part of me leaves open the possibility that it could be problematic to deploy. But I’d guess, it could be overcome in time.

  • Omega Z

    They could Note the extended longevity of it in the final report.
    It would need to be noted that the Data itself is of the Base test.
    If careless in how they report it, it could call into question of the validity of the entire test.

  • artefact

    Ophelia means 20 percent heat to electricity conversion

  • NT

    “Black Light Power, Inc latest press release is quite astonishing: http://www.blacklightpower.com/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Press_Release_040214.pdf

    • JCK

      If it is true, PV panel technology is ready available up to 40% efficiency. This will beat Rossi to the market.

      • jonnyb

        The unit is so small I doubt that you could get enough PV arrays around it, unless they were far away, also it is so bright would it not destroy them? hummmmm The demo video I saw that they produced did not seem that bright, the same as my old wielder?

        • BroKeeper

          Agreed, to configure it into smaller confinement areas (cars) a more robust solar cell to collect and transform “500 times the earth’s surface sunlight” otherwise the circuits within would fry. Because of this I think this press release is based more on theoretical vs. experimental.

          The last public demo February was not convincing enough to demonstrate
          the conversion of its plasma into useful forms of power. I wish the best for BLP’s success along with Rossi’s E-Cat and the other LENR devices for the social economical reformation following will be enormous. The race to the finish line could be close but all contenders will be winners.

          • jonnyb

            Correct me if I’m wrong but it says 50,000 times the Sun’s intensity on the earth surface, assumed clear sky, day light etc, that’s a lot of Watts per Square meter. It would melt? burn, blind, evaporate, etc.

            • BroKeeper

              No, I stand corrected which makes the point stronger. Thanks Bro!!

            • US_Citizen71

              I agree I do not think a PV panel could handle 50 MW per square meter, that would be an intensity close to an industrial cutting laser.

    • blanco69

      Good find NT. 12000 amps input. I wonder at what voltage. Then of course are the out numbers from the PV array. Are they higher or lower than the input numbers. Why are these key stats always missing from these things?

    • Alan DeAngelis

      I know Mills gets really pissed off when you refer to his reaction as LENR but could you get all that energy from just dropping to a lower energy level (a chemical reaction)?

      Could it be due to the following LENR reactions?

      H(1) + O(17) > He(4) + N(14) 1.19 MeV

      H(1) + O(18) > He(4) + N(15) 3.98 MeV

      H(2) + O(16) > He(4) + N(14) 3.11 MeV

      H(2) + O(17) > He(4) + N(15) 9.80 MeV

      H(2) + O(18) > He(4) + N(16) 4.80 MeV

      H(2) + O(16) > H(1) + O(17) 1.92 MeV

      H(2) + O(17) > H(1) + O(18) 5.82 MeV

      H(2) + O(18) > H(1) + O(19) 1.73 MeV

      • Alan DeAngelis

        PS
        The electrons from the beta decays would be in MeVs

        N(16) > O(16) + e- 10.42 MeV

        O(19) > F(19) + e- 4.82 MeV

        D2O and oxygen -18 water, heavy water are commercially available.

  • Daniel Maris

    OK, if you insist and have no moral objection to bigamy.

  • Barry8

    The catalyst that Rossi is using (according to Tom Wind, great vids by the way) “nickel coated with iron oxide.”

    • Fortyniner

      Oddly quiet response to this information, Barry – at one time this was the ‘Great Secret’ that would allow the garage experimenters to replicate the plumbing fittings reactor (assuming Tom Wind is accurate). There is still the ‘frequencies generator’ part to unravel I suppose, but if this was present in the prototype it was probably just a 50/60Hz induction coil.

  • Iggy Dalrymple

    The reactor will have an “Indipendent Switch”, with two positions, Negative & Positive.

  • Ophelia Rump

    I think this is the perfect power source for space elevators.

    The US and Australia believe that manufacturing the ribbon will become feasible in about five years, and want to place one 500 miles south of Perth.

    Race on to build world’s first space elevator
    http://www.news.com.au/news/race-to-build-worlds-first-space-elevator/story-fna7dq6e-1111118059040

    • BroKeeper

      I think they have overshot their five year prediction a few months from the time this was written on November 17, 2008. Maybe they are close to a big announcement as well.

      • Ophelia Rump

        Nice catch. I wonder? overshot maybe, I need to research that.

      • US_Citizen71

        No not an over shoot, it was just a guess as to when materials science would advance to the point to offer up a material strong and light enough, it was not a guess as to when the cable would be done being manufactured. Graphene might be strong enough to make the cable so they are probably on target.

    • Iggy Dalrymple

      “We identified that the Indian Ocean, about 500km off of Perth, was a prime location to site the Earth end of the cable,” Mr Ragan said.

      Could Malasia Airlines 370 have collided with the Space Elevator?
      What if they collided with the “Up Button”?

  • Paul

    I think the report could show a COP in the range 6-30, but it is not so important because Rossi has written in one of the last comments that they are working to a snake. This should mean that the Hot Cat are in series, reaching a COP as high as I want, provided that enough units in series are used. Perhaps every unit of the snake could be a mouse-mice couple.

  • Zeddicus Zul Zorander

    I’d say that would be possible, even very likely but not for the immediate future. Once we understand the theory it might be easy to reach COP 100 or 1000.

    For now Rossi reached a COP of 200, but as I understand it that’s not stable at all. It seemed more like a runaway reaction to me, ending in an explosion. At that reaction rate, possibly neutrons are released also. And those buggers are really dangerous…

    I do agree with your sentiment. We need to begin and colonize the Solar System.

  • Ophelia Rump

    You make me wonder about how dense the power output could be with LENR.
    The power to weight ratio is far beyond that of rocket fuel, could it power rockets?

    • Fortyniner

      ‘How could you dump that much heat…’ Only by continuously vapourising a liquid such as water on a very large surface area I think. Perhaps each core could be embedded in a solid metal lump with a number of holes bored through it, into which water is pumped under pressure and ejected as superheated steam from the opposite end. Without phase change cooling I think the core would just melt.

  • Ophelia Rump

    I laughed when I read that! You should get a prize for enthusiasm for saying that.

    Yes, yes it would indeed, but I think you will find any COP over ten will eventually make it possible. Without a serious energy replacement mankind is falling back to earth to stay.
    like a failed seed.

    An early hope of the space program was to farm hydrogen in space to fuel the space program and mankind, then it shifted to the hope that Helium 3 could be harvested on the moon. Maybe LENR will make both possible, then all we need to do is stabilize this planet while we still have one.

  • Chris I

    The tunnel effect itself is not being overlooked by those who disbelieve it. It’s just that, by the Gamow computation, they don’t believe there could remotely be a significant rate. Even Focardi found the matter puzzling but, of course, just concluded that better understanding is called for.

    My take is that the Gamow computation maybe doesn’t apply as these things aren’t collisions.

  • Roy O’Neil

    I, like most people here, would like the e-cat have a very high COP. But it seems to me that an e-cat powered by natural gas could have a relatively low COP (eg 2) and still be cost effective because it would heat water more cheaply than coal or natural gas. What’s wrong with my thinking? Please set me straight.

    • ecatworld

      I don’t think there’s anything wrong with your thinking. A gas-powered E-Cat could be more cost effective than an electricity powered one in many situations, if natgas is cheap.

    • bachcole

      There is nothing wrong with your thinking. But a higher COP, one that gets past that magic number ‘3’ will make electricity generation cost effective. I would love to have an E-Cat of COP = 2 in my basement heating the house and water. It would save me about $70 per month. And in a big industrial situation, it would be very beneficial.

    • Fortyniner

      The only problem, especially for small scale applications, might be the ‘start up’ time of 30 minutes or so before the e-cat heat kicks in. Many gas-fired applications (such as central heating boilers) need to switch on/off under thermostatic control, so unless that problem has been fixed, ‘gas cats’ would only be suitable for process heating, space heating, base load powergen etc. But as you say, in this kind of situation almost any significant power gain would be useful, so long as the overall costs (capital cost plus consumables and maintenance) made running such a system competitive with gas.

  • Andrew

    I’m not going to speculate on performance but one thing is for certain., as time passes the efficiency will increase as the knowledge base on how it works grows. I’m wondering how far the effect goes how many different combinations of elements will this be effective with. Or we call this LENR+ maybe Rossis device is a very crude way of doing whatever it’s doing.. As is it will change the world , the next couple of decades will be very interesting.

  • Argon
    • Argon

      After second reaqd, maybe not @Thu was response to previous comment , I think. Sorry for confusion (Damn Google translate).

  • Christopher Calder

    I wish someone would explain to me why the Mouse only has a COP of 1.1. Why not a COP of 6?

    • Omega Z

      Chris

      It is just My Opinion that it’s never in operation long enough to exceed that point.
      It is only used to trigger & control the reactor core.
      Running it longer would likely cause the reactor to run away & self destruct.

  • Omega Z

    Consider this.

    The Mouse only has a COP=1.1
    It’s rated 1Kwh output, but requires approximately 910 watts input. Functions only 25% of the time. 250 watts per hour used.

    The Cat has “No” COP of it’s own. It has No Power Input.
    It’s Rated to output 10Kwh heat.
    However, as long as the Mouse keeps triggering the effect it could be rated infinite or until it exhausts it’s Charge. The Only Power Used is the 250watts hour of the Mouse…

    Thus I use the 25% activation phase of the Mouse-250watt over the entire hour & take into account the 10Kw output.
    That indicates a possible COP=40 less loss to start up.

    The Mouse rating & time interval would seem a solid number to work with.
    The Solid Data we are missing is the actual output of the Hot-Cat Reactor.
    Does it put out 10kwh of heat. More? Less?
    This will determine the Actual COP…

    • guga

      Last thing I know is Rossi wrote the Hot Cat had 1 kW output, not 10 kW. The regular eCat modules were 10 kW. I don’t remember he mentioned 10 kW for the Hot Cat.
      That’s why a COP of around 3 or 4 was calculated. If the Hot Cat output was 10 kW, these calculations would of course have been a lot different.

      • guga

        I looked up the 1 kW thing, Rossi wrote it on May 12th, 2013. And I don’t remember that he ever disagreed later when people mentioned 1 kW Mouse/Cat systems.

        • Omega Z

          The Mouse is 1Kw. The Cat Reactor is rated 10Kw, but has no power input. It is triggered & controlled by the mouse.

          The Test showed a COP of 2.6 to 5.2 or somewhere in that range of the two test runs.
          According to Rossi, the reasons for the lower COP readings were
          1- Very conservative data readings. Verified in the report.
          2. They were run at much lower temps to avoid having another Core melt down as they had in December.

          As to reason 1- Accordingly, The COP readings were actually higher then that stated in the report.

          As to reason 2- If I recall, The tests were ran in the range of 300 to 400`C. At Higher temps say 1000`C will produce a higher COP reading.

          • guga

            No, OmegaZ, according to Rossi the Hot Cat is a 1 kW reactor, not 10 kW. Where do you have the 10 kW number from? 10 kW was for the normal eCat, the HotCat with the mouse was always 1 kW (please see Rossi’s comments on May 12th 2013, I can paste them here if necessary). If you find a different number, please cite it, I would be happy to find out that I’m wrong.

  • Omega Z

    They will insulate for comfort.
    Believe me. It makes a big difference & I’m not talking about the cost of heating.
    Without Insulation, you have hot & cold spots. No equilibrium. You’ll either be to warm or to cool. Kind of like standing by a campfire at night. You cook the side next to the fire while the back side freezes. Your body doesn’t know what to do. Shiver or spin.

  • observer

    Just because the six month test is over does not mean they turned the e-cat off. To my knowledge, no one knows how long the reaction can last in the hot cat.

  • Omega Z

    As McKubre & a few others have pointed out.
    Only those Old enough to have nothing to lose or that can be taken from them can risk involvement in this technology. It’s a near end of career indeavor.
    I’m sure if need be, others will follow when they reach this stage.

  • Neanderthal

    Edward Witten would also be a good candidate

  • Neanderthal

    Sorry Andrew Wiles i meant

  • Neanderthal

    quantum tunnelling is indeed the mechananism however going through the equations there is something that i can not seem to correct. i will have to try and use some pertubation in my theory. I am quite rigorous is my techniques. however i there is one person i have to admit is better than me. and confident will solve it. Richard Wiles. where are you!

    • MMK

      Add this into your model, one tunnelling occurrence will setup avalanche of tunnelling of neighbouring protons due to REFLECTIONS in the tight spaces of the lattice. seem I got it. It must be the reflections that cascade the reactions – at least on my computer model here.

  • Ophelia Rump

    Hah, you call that a prediction, thats nothing, I predicted your post!