2014 Predictions Thread

Today is the shortest day of 2013 — the official beginning of winter here in the United States, and the Christmas and New Year’s holidays are upon us.


In my estimation it’s been a good year for the LENR cause. The most important event to me was the publication of the Levi report which put the reality and viability of the E-Cat as a superior energy source beyond any reasonable doubt.

I thought that now would be a good time to look beyond the remains of the year to 2014 and open up a thread for predictions for the new year.

My own prediction is that in the first half of 2014 we’ll get another 3rd party report on the long term E-Cat testing and we’ll find out who Rossi’s partner is. Beyond that I wouldn’t want to guess.

There’s no demerit for being wrong here — just some harmless speculation!

  • roseland67

    I fully expect 2014 to be similar to 2013 in that:
    Many global labs will continue to publish work suggesting anomolous heat gain,
    but none of them will step out and say “We figured it out”.
    Rossi’s “partner” will remain unknown.
    Rossi affiliated professors/technicians etc will continue to publish test results
    showing Energy In > Energy Out, but no NON Rossi affiliated labs will publish
    or be allowed to independently test the Ecat or any connected equipment.
    ECAT et al. will not be sold to any acknowledged customer.
    December 2014 will still show both the same diametrically opposed sides for the same reasons
    they are today. The Mary Yugo’s and bachcole’s of the world will still exist and find zero reason to
    bend/adapt/consider any alternative other than their current agendas.
    I hope this technology becomes application relevant & scalable before I retire, I very much want to participate
    in its potential and also witness the dismanteling of the global energy syndicate,
    but as usual, you know where I’m from.
    Happy New Year to all and many thanks to Frank Ackland for hosting this site,
    E Cat World is my “GO TO” location “All things LENR”

  • bachcole

    I would think that a good surprise would simply add time to our wait. I can’t see a good surprise subtracting wait time. And bad surprise of course would add time.

    “Hey, we have a really great revolving magnetic field. We could do this with it”. That is just going to add time. Sort of Babbage like.

    • Fortyniner

      Perhaps Rossi might be inclined to go off at a tangent, but I’m sure that these days his associates would gently steer him back onto the straight and narrow. Profits first, play later.

  • Bernie Koppenhofer

    I predict my predictions will be 0 to 100 percent accruate.

    • Fortyniner

      …with a greater than 90% probability of being 5-95% accurate.

      • Omega Z

        Peter

        I always new you were an Optimist.

      • Bernie Koppenhofer

        Right, stats never lie

  • Fortyniner

    Perhaps you could suggest one solid commercial reason why Rossi and his associates should demonstrate to your satisfaction that they have what has been claimed?

    • Stephen

      They are supposed to run a company and sell working products… let us put it this way: I see no solid commercial reason for going on with story-telling and with unfulfilled promises for years… while not releasing bullet proof demonstrations of their product. Since they talk, in my view they should better demonstrate what they have, beyond any reasonable and (given the amount of skepticism around) unreasonable doubt, or this will just destroy their credibility… as they already have done to some extent. Why are they releasing any information at all?

  • bachcole

    Stephen, it seems to me that the only reason you don’t believe 2013 Levi et. al. is “people still seem to have a lot of doubts”. Is that the scientific approach?

    • Stephen

      Just trying to describe how I perceive the general feeling, which I think is quite important for the progress of this field. I have personal doubts anyway. The 3rd party test was interesting but it is not conclusive (i.e. it does not rule out a fake). You can say it is unlikely it is all fake (who knows, I might even agree to some extent), but the test is not conclusive, as even stated by the testers… so I stay neutral. Also, strictly speaking the scientific approach would require a (or better, a good number of) completely independent reproduction(s) of the apparatus… but, ok, we cannot expect this for now.

      • bachcole

        Stephen, have you been watching the interviews with the testers and Rossi and McKubre et. al. for the past 2 years? Like I said elsewhere, I think that context is very important.

        I once had to take a training course twice even though I was the smartest person in the room (that particular room) and everyone else only had to take the training once. Why? Because I was unfamiliar with the context. Lesson: If you are unfamiliar with these people and the various videos for the past 2+ years, then it is easy to dismiss the 2013 Levi, et. al. report.

        Also, if you aren’t tuned into the human side of life, then the interviews and such won’t mean much, which is sort of like not actually having viewed the videos and interviews. If you have read my posts, you will know that I am very human oriented with all of my talk about paradigms, epistemology, psychology, viewpoints, feelings, philosophy, blah, blah, blah. ad nauseum to some people I’m sure. This is not even to say that I am smarter than you with regard to these matters; it just says that the soft/social evidence is going to mean more to me than to someone else who is more left-brain. I try to be both left and right brain, but I am more right brain oriented than most people here.

        • Stephen

          Bachcode, I have been following this story for long, even if not that close in the past 1y… I stopped when I realized that the actors here, for some reason, are not willing to release sufficient information to allow me to draw any reliable conclusion.

          Of course the meaning of “reliable” is a matter of taste. As I wrote, I might even agree with you that it is unlikely the Levi test 2013 is a fake, but this is my right brain talking here, probably based on subjective arguments which are similar to yours. Human side is nice but then here we are steering away from facts and moving to bets, belief, hopes, impressions, etc. This is a bet which I do not need nor want to make. I will believe just when I see hard facts period. I simply refuse to fill the gaps by reverse-engineering the psycology of Rossi and Co… and for a number of good reasons. Among these, first of all I prefer to devote my “right brain side” to other less technical things, such as friendship, family, etc… second reason, I know it is hugely dangerous to try to decypher other’s mind and motivations. This is true in general, but even much more so here, with such little available information. Humans are fashinating but also very complicate and I would not dare to conclude anything about somebody I do not know pretty (pretty) well. Btw, in my view this is reason #1 why the scientific method was introduced… i.e. to avoid having to trust such subjective impressions and remove the human factor from the equation… bacause that is a factor which is too difficult to reliably take into account.

          Anyway, I hope they will let us know something at some point.

          • bachcole

            Stephen, I have no problem with subjective impressions as long as the subjective impressions are not of subjective impressions of subjective impressions X 100 as was the case in the Middle Ages. Of course, those folks didn’t have any experts except experts in sword play and theology.

            Even you have to take the word of other people, until such time as you burn your finger and your utility bills plummet. I am accepting the subjective impressions of Levi, Essen, McKubre, et. al. The rest is deductive reasoning based upon the principles that human beings are greedy for money and desirous to doing service for others. Given those two approaches, trusting someone and deduction based on sound principles, I simply don’t worry too much about everything else. If Rossi doesn’t make a “deadline” (or a “nap”line), I simply don’t fret too much about it.

            Everyone is different and your trust of subjective impressions is not as strong as mine. I confess that when I read comments here that get too technical, my eyes glaze over and I delete the comment, most of the time.

      • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

        the Elforsk test, because of many details and especially the protocol itself (more than the result), rule out fraud. fraud is not only improbable, but logic of selfish interest proves that if it was a fraud, the test would not be designed that way, because fraud could be easily detected.

        the problem is not that the test does not rule out fraud, it is that some skeptics cannot be convinced despite evidence because they will never be convinced else by menace to be banned from the world where money thus truth is.

        some people don’t make the difference between something true and something accepted by others/authorities/contradictors as true.

  • Private Citizen

    In South Korea, this decade’s tech leader, a major chaebol will market the first openly available LENR device, probably a simple water heater. The tech will be stolen intellectual property, but Korea will claim it is native.

    At first the US will refuse importation of the tech & will pressure Korea with every tool at its disposal to abandon it, even threatening to withdraw military support and then provoke a false flag war with North Korea.

    But it will be too late. The tech has already gone public. South Korea will be forced under China’s wing for protection, possibly negotiating a Korean reunification in the bargain.

    World chaos ensues, as oil economies and petro-currencies collapse, populations up-rise, brute force becomes the final coin of the realm.

    A rag-tag band of technophiles, calling themselves E-Cat World, splinter off and form an off-grid community in some bucolic undisclosed remote location. This community will, as it happens, form the nucleus of an entirely new civilization.

    Might not come true, but would make a heck of a sci-fi.

  • Alain Samoun

    I believe that, in the middle of the world wide financial disaster in 2014,, a new type of energy will rise that, by itself, will change the society and life as we know it.
    But what do I know?
    Happy holidays to our host and to everyone reading!

    • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

      I believe something I cannot predict will happen in China, at least in Asia.
      and if it does not happen, maybe I could help it happen in Indonesia.

      • Alain Samoun

        What do you know? You may be right.. or wrong ;-)
        Aller bon Noel tout de même!

        • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

          no secret data, just noticed Ms Yang Juan is testing Emdrive, and Chinese send a robot to the Moon…
          They can do surprise, that I cannot predict.

  • US_Citizen71

    I think the beginning of 2014 will remain rather slow. In january we will hear from DGT that they have not gone bankrupt but have moved into a new location possibly with some outside funding. Sometime around mid-year we will get the results of the long term tests by the third party/Elforsk on Rossi’s Hotcat and may get some results from his own internal long term tests. By the end of the year Rossi will announce his partner and the results of the majority of the long term tests (I expect some of the tests will be the let it run until it stops type, so they could run for more than 18 months). I expect this to coincide with the announcement of a commercial Hot Cat boiler replacement for electrical and gas powered auxiliary/heating boilers and/or refurbishment of an old coal power station to Hot E-Cat fueling. I am unsure about other dark horses such as Brillion, announcements and demos from such players are likely if they have anything real if not they will fade away.

  • nightcreature3

    The domestic e-cats are nowhere in sight. I do appreciate Andrea Rossi’s Warm Regards, but for us, it looks like it’s going to be another Cold Christmas.

    • JDM

      I predict that I will be splitting and stacking another three cords of firewood for next winter (: P

      • bachcole

        Cute. Probably NO home E-Cats until at least 2015, probably later than that.

  • Chris I

    More seriously, I get the idea Rossi is coming to terms with reality and also finding more and more hurdles to be overcome and that somebody will either hit on his trick or even instead come up with something much better and thumb their nose at him.

  • AB

    I think we will see more from Rossi in 2014 than we saw in 2013.

  • Chris the 2nd

    More test results, more proof, more respect and funding for the field, but no reactor putting any energy into the grid. That is some years off yet in my opinion.

    • Omega Z

      I agree Chris.

      I expect conformation & maybe a proof of concept prototype-Sometime in 2014.
      However, Brick & Mortar take much longer.

  • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

    I believe Defkalion will be late, but will do it….
    and as usual they will tell it later than their initial plan…
    Later but maybe bigger than what we imagine.

    I believe Brillouin will… take time… I hope HHT will work in 2014… not sure.

    I believe that the consensus will not accept LENR in 2014 despite sales in 2014.
    I believe they will admit and invent cold fusion in 2015

    • Iggy Dalrymple

      “I believe that the consensus will not accept LENR in 2014 despite sales in 2014.”

      I agree with Alain’s statement above. LENR may be adapted slowly, like “shale fracking”, then suddenly, the competition will be caught flatfooted. The press will only report what its masters order it to report.

      • Guest
      • bachcole

        And the masters will not allow to be reported any thing that they are “sure” is bunk, and they are much more likely to be sure that it is bunk if skeptopaths and most real scientist tell them that LENR is bunk. And the masters and those real scientists are more likely to believe that LENR is bunk if it is in their interests to do so. So, as far as I can see, the skeptopaths and misguided scientists are doing society a service by keeping powerful people and the government from trying to stop LENR with more scary means than just trying to ignore it to death.

        • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

          hopefull there are greedy people, greedy of bilions, greedy of recognition, greedy to save their beloved country, greedy of real things, and not of their peer-review.

          Imagine a company like Nokia, Blackberry, who need a blackswan to survive. If one top manager see LENR, it will take the risk, because there is nothing worse than what is planned.

          Mainstream are happy without LENr, being peer-reviewed by friends…

          They will admit LENR only when their funder (state, corps) will stop funding them because they looks wrong.

          then as taleb write, they will invent LENR… alone, without the corrupted cold fusion fraudsters who prevented LENR to be seriously investigated for 25 years

          http://www.lenr-forum.com/showthread.php?2043-How-MIT-discovered-LENR-in-2015-History-written-by-the-losers.

  • Jimr

    I hope you are correct however, I doubt that we will hear anything major until the latter part of the year. ( we may get a comment such as things are going well in early year) Depending on the 3rd party, the report will make news but nothing major. The report will most likely indicate progress is being made however products will not be available for two to four years.

    • Omega Z

      Jimr

      I expect some kind of LENR confirmation in 2014, however, Contrary to what most here post, it will take several years to market. A small working prototype may arise in late 2014 or Early/Mid 2015, BUT longer for an actual Power plant to provide Energy to consumer’s

      I’d expect the 1st Real plant to be in the 50Mw range & wont come online until 2016/2017 at the Earliest. The pace will gradual pick up from there.

      What many overlook is that, No Matter how fast E-cats can be built, It will be bottle necked by Reality. Power plants require Specialized materials, Skilled labor & Finance all of which are holding up present Power Plant construction.

      At Present, There are approximately 1000 Power Plants on order. Without adding a single new order, it will take at least 10 years to fill this back Log.
      E-cats coming to market will have little effect as they merely replace the Gas Burner. All the other apparatus, Skilled labor & Finance will still be the hold up.

      BUT, I don’t care. As long as a Single Prototype becomes Public by 2015, Everything else will follow.

      It will provide ammunition to stop the boondoggles. You can then Ask your Politician, Why subsidize a 5 billion$ Solar or Wind Farm when the same money can provide more Electricity that is Clean, Cheap, dependable 24/7 near point of sale in a small footprint. They would be hard pressed to explain themselves.

      • Fortyniner

        I would agree with that general scenario, but would expect the first ‘confirmable’ pilot plant to be very much smaller than 50MW – possibly only in the 0.5-5MW range.

        It seems entirely possible that Rossi’s partner may not be the huge multinational that many of us envisaged/hoped, but a relatively small company with good R&D but limited manufacturing facilities. Such a company might be able to field 16 or so engineers to assist AR, and to supply research instruments and small scale prototype engineering on demand, but would not be in a position to build a large prototype generator set (commercial series-produced gensets can cost many millions, and a prototype would cost a multiple of that).

        However they might be able to run to a relatively small skid-mounted commercial generator, and to modify this to CF firing, and that is pretty much what I expect to see from Rossi et al. in late 2014 or 2015. My gut instinct though is that others may now be quietly developing variants of Ni-H technology and my guess is that there is something like a 50% chance that DGT, Brillouin or some ‘dark horse’ may pre-empt Rossi with a public announcement.

        I hope so – I think we now desperately need a 2+ horse race to kick this thing into high gear (unless of course my previously posted and more pessemistic predictions concerning corporate buy-out of successful CF replications and start-ups turn out to be accurate).

  • bachcole

    I believe that we will get an other test report in the first half of 2014. But I do not believe that we will yet know the partner. Elforsk or Vattenfallen will come more out of the closet.

    More and more people will turn against Obama because primary the problems with ObamaCare. The Democrats will get crushed in the November election. We will get some exciting news for Defkalion and Brillouin. But skeptopaths will still be able to say that LENR is not real, but just barely.

    • Chris I

      The president will continue to receive praise for the economic boom and will continue to support the soya farmers. The mainstream domestic press will continue to avoid telling citizens about the terrible impact of it all on the locals, nor about the natives getting driven off their land by intimidation and violence.

      The ISIL will continue to consolidate its territorial hold, despite having been disbanded, but it will not succeed in overthrowing the president. Instead, he will continue to shell rebel stromgholds and send his air force against them, but without ever defeating them.

      The Forconi will rake up increasing popular support from folks who don’t learn from history, if at all they know a thing about it. They might even recruit plenty folks from the 5 Star movement, even most of them, or possibly persuade its leader to join them altoghether. Quite likely they will march on Rome and be victorious, just like about 9 decades ago.

      The demonstrators in Maidan square will pull off a coup and the new gov’t will be welcomed into the EU and thumb its nose at Putin.

      • bachcole

        Which country or countries are you referring to?

        • Chris I

          Oh I very easily guessed your ones.

          I must admit though, if I had not been following all the news about these topics, I would only have guessed one of yours and, to boot, from the part which has nothing to with these topics. What do you make of this?

          SPQR

          • bachcole

            Chris I, I did see the reference to Madrid. I suspect that you mixed up a bunch of countries, and I think that you are trying to give me a lesson about being USA-centric. (:->) However, the case can easily be made that the USA is the most globally influential nation in the history of the world. All you guys have to put country codes on your website addresses, and we don’t. So there!

            • Chris I

              Seems you can’t even get a lesson straight, eh? My jibe was first of all because you lapsed into politics and in a manner which has nothing to do with the topic of this site. I would expect this to have been clear enough already from my previous reply. Your point about country codes on envelopes is irrelevant and doesn’t excuse your folk from not even specifying which nation; it remains that this site is read by many who are not even in Obamaland and hence don’t care about Obamacare (further to it being off topic). I disagree with your perspective about the USA in the world anyway, but I wasn’t hoping for my jibe to strike up all the much more off-topic chatter.

              BTW I said nothing about Madrid, your attempt to regain after having demonstrated lack of information beyond your national borders was no use. The most obscure of my four countries must be Argentina because, come to think of it, it wasn’t on mainstream international press that I came across the soya farming issue. The other three were each fair enough, especially when compared to your own domestic topic. It would have been slighty different if you had said something more along the lines of the attacked embassy in Benghazi or the planes struck by guns in South Sudan (but off topic all the same).

              • bachcole

                Oh, Chris I, I feel so narrow. You are so superior to me. I guess my yoga and tai chi and my foreign spiritual master and my foreign wife and my watching Korean television series and my watching Russian and German movies doesn’t count. Dang. I am doomed to my narrowness.

                End of sarcastic reply.

                I am particularly fond of the Russian movies on Netflix. I am sure that there are plenty of Russian movies that aren’t educational and are vapid, but I have recently seen three, one about 1700′s Khazaks being oppressed by dudes no one even remembers because the Khazaks won. I just loved how it showed how these people lived. It was just spectacular. It was called “Myn Bala: Warriors of the Steppe”. And there was “The Horde”, about the Tatars and their eventual downfall. Such movies paint in between the lines of facts that everyone knows and gives life to historical eras that are just facts to us all.

                And I also enjoyed “9th Company”, about the Soviet Union’s misadventure in Afghanistan.

                All of this is admittedly off-topic. (:->)

                • Chris I

                  All that ought to be greater reason to keep in mind that this site is visited by tons of folks who couldn’t care less about Obamacare or other political matters of your own country and that its topic is something of a much more global scope than these things (even despite the post WWII hegemony, which has been somewhat changing anyway).

                  Yeah wasn’t I being sooo superior. :-D

                • bachcole

                  Well, I think that you were preaching to the choir. I abhor narrowness.

                  But if the US economy collapses thanks to Obama, you won’t be quite so disdainful of following USA political matters.

                • Chris I

                  First, I actually have been following them along with many other things in the world. Second, you’re the one who was preaching, regardless of whom to.

                  In any case, alright, I promise to keep trembling in fear, but certainly not as much as you should and not for the same reasons. If you think your current president is to blame, preach it to your fellow citizens and somewhere it isn’t off topic.

                  What could however make more sense to say here on this site is that, if you have this fear and if you knew the main thing that has kept your dollar from becoming a dime a dozen over the past few decades despite its increasing circulation, you might become one of the raging skeptopaths around here. Alternatively, you could hope that clever politicians will see to having only debt denominated in it and make sure you do likewise, also making sure to avoid any other assets that might get indirectly dragged down. I’m not sure how it could hit the Euro and I sure won’t be buying T-notes no matter how hard Chinese folks start trying to persuade me, they’ll have to find some other sucker.

      • AB

        The so called rebels in Syria are mostly foreign fighters and jihadists. It’s a war by proxy by surrounding states and the US.

        • http://www.lenrnews.eu/lenr-summary-for-policy-makers/ AlainCo

          not only.
          there are syrians who simply are furious agains the government, because they are getting poor.
          this is caused by the destabilisation of the agrarian economy in the east, because of….

          Iraq war and instabilities.

          thanks Bush Jr.