Shell Surveys Future — Oil Declines, but no LENR in Sight

If Royal Dutch Shell is anticipating the emergence of LENR as a new power source for the future, they are keeping it to themselves. The company has just published a forecasting document called New Lens Scenarios: Exploring How Economic, Political and Social Forces Might Shape the Global Energy System and Environment over the 21st Century in which it looks at possible scenarios for the future of energy through the end of this century.

As you might expect, the document is not definitive in its predictions — and provides two main ‘lenses’, or scenarios for energy depending on how global economic and political forces turn out. We know Shell as a major oil producer, but the company actually sees a significant decline in the use of oil as the century progresses. In one scenario here’s where they see the energy of the future coming from:

Shell Energy Sources

Interestingly, in one scenario, Shell sees that by 2070 oil use for passenger transportation almost disappears:

Shell Transportation projection
Source: Royal Dutch Shell

By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free and towards the end of the century an extensive hydrogen infrastructure rollout displaces oil demand for long haul and heavy loads. By this time, electricity and hydrogen may dominate, and affordable, plug-in, hybrid hydrogen vehicles offer the ultimate in flexibility and efficiency.

Shell believes that solar could become the dominant form of energy by the end of the century:

From its position today as the 13th largest energy source worldwide, it grows rapidly, reaching fourth place behind oil, gas and coal by 2040, and continuing to the number one position in 2100. The sun rises to create solar energy dominance in the global system.

There’s no mention of even the possibility of a place for LENR in any of the scenarios in the document as far as I can tell. Maybe there’s a covert team at Shell watching its developments, or maybe it’s a technology that has been simply discounted altogether.

  • Dan Woodward

    LENR could easily be included under the category “nuclear”, which is included.

    • Buck

      That’s how it was categorized for NASA.

  • Allan Shura

    The shell CEO also prdicted $200 a barrel oil in 2011 on tv.

  • GreenWin

    It is interesting to see how oilcos publish projections intended to keep themselves and investors mollified. Why would owners of a baseball team publish a report that soccer (football) was the wave of the future? Way back in 1995 Shell Research /CNAM Laboratory de sciences nucleaires in Paris, published their finding of excess heat in a Pd/D electrochem system. They presented their research at the ICCF-5 in Monte Carlo.

    “Excess Energy in the System Palladium/Hydrogen isotopes”

    http://www.newenergytimes.com/v2/reports/shell.shtml

    It would be little surprise if in the following years Shell has not minimally followed the developments in LENR to the point of running a full-on skunkworks attempting to match or beat Rossi’s latest E-CatHT validations. If not, when LENR goes public by orthodox acceptance or grassroots – Shell and their sister oilcos stock would suffer a sell-off panic.

    The road to LENR is nicely paved by just these projections made by fossil energy. That is a rapid movement to Distributed Energy Resources of which solar is one. The key to the energy revolution here is DERs are the most important step. They represent the most radical change in the energy power structure by eliminating centralized power and transmission networks. With the acceptance of distributed energy systems and microgrids – the road to LENR on district and local levels is perfectly set.

    As Oz pointed out in the earlier thread, Apple did not discuss their move to Intel processors until a month before products began to ship. Shell and its oil cartel will publicly ignore LENR until absolutely necessary. But you can be sure they’ve seen the handwriting – coming recently from their own farm team at Texas Tech University.

    • Omega Z

      GW

      Thanks, Tho I have made statements to this effect in the past, I think credit for the Apple statement goes to Donk970.

      But I agree, They don’t want this to spread until their done jockeying for position.
      Also, It may be a matter of Caution. As of yet, as far as we know, high quality LENR heat has not been harnessed to produce usable Energy.

      I have no doubts as to excess heat, But an Example Problem that could arise, having a Gasoline engine that runs great, but dies the moment you put it under a load. Until the Unknown Issues are settled, They likely will keep this low profile.
      These Issue’s may be settled tomorrow or several years down the road.

      We know Multiple Oilcos have been associated with Rossi, DGT, Etc… They are aware.
      And I may be wrong, but it seems to me that I very recently read/saw that Shell had filed a patent on that work in 95 among other Oilcos having done the same.

  • Draughtsman

    Forecasts like this even from the most learned sources are pretty near worthless and trying to predict out to 2070 is absurd. Most times these forecasts are simply an extrapolation of current trends and known technologies and say more about the time they were written than the future. Heaven only knows why people persist in making them. Just say for instance that LENR or Hot Fusion are cracked and become commercially available within the next decade or so then this forecast will be completely upended.

    • Fortyniner

      Agreed. A bit like someone in 1890 predicting that by 1990 all middle class people would have a steam carriage driven by a servant, a room at home equipped with a private telegraph machine, and would travel to holiday destinations as far away as France by airship.

  • Miles

    The survey/diagrams is the BEST that Shell could come up with??
    No one can predict the future & breakthrough occur often enough. Electric Vehicles are taking off in the U.S (See: insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ ) Battery technology will no doubt improve, so a changing landscape means it’s not worth looking closely into what they’re provided. Have a look at Solar in 2020 – it’s almost non-existent in their diagram. No mention of LENR – maybe they think they can buy out Rossi.

  • Iggy Dalrymple

    I’m surprised they are predicting coal to remain strong.

    • ecatworld

      I was too — but I just read this: http://gcaptain.com/coal-surpass-fuel-global-economy/

      “Coal will surpass oil as the key fuel for the global economy by 2020 despite government efforts to reduce carbon emissions, energy consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie said on Monday.

      Rising demand in China and India will push coal past oil as the two Asian powerhouses will need to rely on the comparatively cheaper fuel to power their economies. Coal demand in the United States, Europe and the rest of Asia will hold steady.”

      • Omega Z

        Coal power in the U.S. has & is continuing to decline, But China has picked up the difference & More. Coal Production continues to increase.
        I think how these numbers are conveyed depend a lot on who’s doing the numbers.

    • Leonard Weinstein

      Germany, which chose to remove Nuclear in favor of solar and wind, has had to backtrack to coal. It is possible other countries that were foolish enough to go those routes will also go back to fossil fuels like coal and gas. LENR may move forward, but will take decades to establish, and may not be competitive with coal, gas, and conventional nuclear for many decades except for heating. Even if LENR is as good and inexpensive as hoped, a complete power and heat system has more to it than just the power source. Converting heat to electric, distributing heat and power, and system servicing need to be developed, and will cost more than the basic power source.