OPEC and Saudis Losing Clout

I read an interesting article from Fox News which focuses on the effect that the current boom in the US energy sector is having, and will have in the future on the fortunes of OPEC countries — specifically Saudi Arabia. Prince Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a top Saudi investor warns the Saudi oil minister that shale gas extraction in the US and elsewhere threatens the welfare of the country which is almost entirely reliant on oil for its revenues.

Demand for crude oil from OPEC countries has decreased in recent years, and is projected by experts to continue to do so in the future. This could spell trouble for many OPEC nations who, like Saudi Arabia, are largely dependent on oil revenues to fund their government operations.

I bring up this article here because we have sometimes looked at what the effects of a widespread adoption of LENR could mean to major energy producing countries — but it looks like there is something happening already in this regard because of the conventional energy boom taking place largely due to new methods of fossil fuel extraction.

If LENR is thrown into the mix we could be seeing even more rapid changes in the balance of power in the coming years. And it might turn out that the newfound ascendancy of United States in the energy field because of its progress in oil and gas production could be relatively short lived. Of course we don’t really have a timetable of when commercial LENR will come online and start to make a difference, but if you ask Andrea Rossi he will say that he is optimistic that his plants will be working in the market in the near future. I doubt the big oil producing nations have figured that into their projections quite yet.

  • amidyousef

    Saudi Arabian Monarchy EXPOSED as international Criminals, now loosing any influence at the UN. SEE http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24580767

  • Susan Corrigan

    It is little-understood fact but our money system today is completely based on energy…and cheap oil. Dollars are only worth something because folks in Saudi Arabia will trade oil for those dollars. LENR will disrupt the scales we use to value everything. It may even require the world to find some other precious material to use for money.

    It’s a good thing, really…for lots of reasons, but things will be shaken up a lot.

    • Barry

      Thanks Susan, I’ve always hoped, after an energy revolution an economic revolution would follow.

  • Anonymole

    China is just getting started. One can imagine the Chinese are about where the U.S. was in the early 60’s regarding roads and auto/truck supporting infrastructure. Now picture where the U.S. is now and where China wants to go. India, too, is not far behind. Of course China/India’s energy approach will not mirror the U.S., Australia or Europe’s, they’ll have to do things differently. But crude oil is right there at the top of their critical resource list.

    If the Saudi’s are afraid of anything it’s being found out regarding the over reporting of their reserves. “What, shortages? No, no, no, we have billions of barrels in reserve. We will be pumping oil for a century or more.” As long as there are reserves – no need to replace oil as the primary transportation fuel. But if the planet suddenly learned that what oil we thought was there – wasn’t… Over reporting reserves is the only way to maintain economic stability. Shortages cause strife, wars, chaos, calamity.

    • jjaroslav

      But keeping the reserves saves them….the molecules that make up crude oil are far more valuable in the manufacture of goods rather than being spewed out as energy. Keeping the reserves assures income long after energy supply goes elsewhere.
      All it takes is a few percentage points excess or deficit to create a huge swing in this highly balanced market. We can all thank the Chinese for not unleashing the consumer monster.

  • Roger Bird

    Off Topic, but fun. I am reading about homeopathic theory, and at the bottom is an advertisement for a t-shirt with some dude’s picture on the t-shirt that says “Andrea Rossi shook up the planet” with a picture of Rossi looking like Richard Nixon. Of course, they are tracking me. But it is still fun, even if it is a little paranoia inducing. I wonder if they noticed that I may have mentioned now and then that the President of the United States is a political science retard and should be impeached. I hope that they aren’t tracking that one. (:->)

  • kwhilborn

    I am sure most Oil Rich nations are now diversified in the market and own pieces of Coca Cola, Microsoft, Apple, Google, McDonalds, among others. I would think even many rich oil families want to see green energy as opposed to having an unlivable planet for their grandchildren.

  • D2

    It seems to me the Saudi’s may actually transition into an agricultural hub since the cost to desalinate will significantly be reduced; they have vast areas that could be put into agricultural production if water were available.

    • AstralProjectee

      Really, whenever I think of Saudi Arabia, I think of desert. Which is not too good for agriculture.

      • Roger Bird

        That desert used to be a lush forest, when there was water. H20 + sand + time = soil. But the time in that equation can be helped along, otherwise it can be a lot of time.

  • Robyn Wyrick

    The Saudis have long kept a watchful eye on the future prospects for oil. I think they are very aware of LENR.

    The writing has been on the wall for Oil for decades. The first claim of “Peak Oil” was back in the 1960s. And after the OPEC crisis in ’72, every President since Nixon has claimed that we would try to be energy independent – meaning free from Mid-East Oil.

    And so while I don’t mean that oil is going the way of the horse and buggy this year, I don’t think the Saudis expect it to last forever. Everyone in the Middle East knows that they need to diversify their economies.

  • Leonard Weinstein

    There is a lot more to the economics of energy use than just raw energy costs. Capitol cost of new or replacement equipment, cost of operation and maintenance, and cost of operation of entire home and industry make the system sensitive to details. I did an estimate of a system that would use a version of E-Cat or Defkalions system (guessing on reasonable cost for a system, not just the heat source), added a Coolerado air cooler (a low energy replacement for conventional air conditioners), a Stirling cycle generator to generate electric power, and even some solar cells and batteries when they would be most cost efficient. The result is a slightly lower average cost that present heating and cooling and electric power costs, but more like 20% to 30% less (depending on details), not 90% or some other huge saving. The bigger difference was that an independent system (no external power or gas) was produced, avoiding hookup and sensitivity to power loss, and no exhaust products. If a home already has a complete energy system, the added cost to convert would not be recovered unless the old system was near replacement anyway. The main advantage would be new homes, or homes needing major replacement of these systems. There would be a slow start up, at best, of these uses for those reasons.

    • Kim

      Thanks for the calculations and your
      estimations.

      You are probably very close to being
      correct.

      The technology will increase in efficiency
      over time, but we have to start somewhere
      now.

      Respect
      Kim

    • zvibenyosef

      When LENR becomes widely adopted, it will likely be through a mix of centralized and distributed power. Electrical generation plants can be quickly retrofitted to use LENR. This can happen much faster than the adoption of standalone domestic LENR, due to strict licensing requirements for domestic units, and differing state laws. The first people to benefit will be the average user, already hooked up to the grid. It will probably not lead to an immediate and dramatic lowering of costs. It could result in a greater capacity, lowering the necessity for customers having to pay premium prices during seasonal periods of heavy demand, and reducing blackouts and disruption of service. Eventually after the cost of retrofitting has been recouped, energy prices for the average customer could drop quite substantially.
      When domestic units do become available, new houses can be energy independent, using a mix of solar and LENR, with battery back up. The extra cost can be incorporated in the monthly mortgage payments. The new homeowner will not receive a monthly bill for energy, but will pay back an extra small amount each month, which they will barely notice. As an added benefit, these customers will have an economical source of power for an electric or hybrid vehicle, which will save much more than the monthly cost.
      For those customers still dependent on the grid, LENR could still play a role in reducing energy costs, especially if they own an electric vehicle.

      • Ramey

        Does anyone know if the E-cat will be developed to be electrically responsive to load demand or is the device planning on running at a prescribed rate of electrical deliverance? Would it make use of creating hydrogen fuel for storage? It could be compatible with PV engaged in the same production. Cheaply made hydrogen fuel and desalination are my top two picks.

        • GreenWin

          The selection of genset will determine that. Load following gensets tend to be more expensive. At a fixed rate excess electric can be returned to the grid or… for industry, used to make ice which cools the building airflow during day.

      • Rod Van Mechelen

        I’m under the impression manufacturers, warehouses, shopping malls and other commercial interests will make the switch faster than electric utilities and homes. They will realize savings at the wholesale level, which will trickle down to consumers. I could see electric utilities fighting to outlaw E-Cats/Defkalion primarily because there would be no need for centralization and they would fear losing control.

    • Pedro

      At this moment people get electricity from the grid. Base price for electricity is in the region of 5 cts, but by the time it get’s into your home you are paying 25 cts. If the grid switches to LENR at a base price of 1 ct, the end user price will drop 4 cts (at best) and you are paying 21 cts instead of 25 cts… Saving 15% at best. So we need a domestic eCat before we are going to make any substantial savings for home users. It will be a long wait!

      • TimB

        This is very true. Infrastructure counts for most of your power bill. The actual energy generation is cheap as chips. Maybe not for the environment as far as coal goes, but anyway, we’ll see large cost savings only when domestic models are available. Even just for heating, it’s winter here right now and my latest electricity bill is almost double that of summer.

  • Bernie Koppenhofer

    Would someone living in New Hampshire please go to DEKA and find out what is going on. (:

    https://maps.google.com/maps?ie=UTF-8&q=DEKA&fb=1&gl=us&hq=DEKA&ei=Xcj3UZnQCIn7yAHCp4HYCQ&ved=0CLMBELYD

  • Stephen Goodfellow

    If Rossi and/or Defkalion’s desktop rectors turn out to be the energy paradigm shift our species has been hoping for, the large oil producing countries will do just fine.
    Presently, the limitation to plastic manufacturing is energy. Limitless energy will herald an exponential growth in plastic production, hitherto undreamed of.

    • Gerald

      Indeed, production will multiply. Same idea here.

    • Robyn Wyrick

      I find it hard to imagine that a decline in the use of oil for fuel would result in a boom in plastics manufacturing that would compensate.

      Right now the globe uses under 8% of it’s oil for plastics. The expectation would have to be that there is a gigantic, ten-fold increase in pent-up demand that is currently not being met.

      Moreover, as we move forward, Plastics are getting undermined as an unwelcome pollutant, and other materials are advancing.

      Certainly we are not going to be getting rid of plastics altogether anytime soon, but I don’t think it will make the difference for OPEC.

      • jjaroslav

        But with fewer manufacturers and vertical integration of manufacturing…watch the Saudi’s building VCM plants…the value chain can now become more profitable/barrel.
        The barriers of entry will favour the infrastructure being built now in the medium run.

    • Pedro

      I looked it up… 60% of the oil currently is used for transportation… The area where LENR wil have no impact initialy.

      • GreenWin

        Except that with near-free electricity an electric vehicle plus small LENR genset will be attractive. EVs are able to recharge for free in many places (malls e.g.) these days.

        • TimB

          Some other players producing affordable EV’s now too:

          http://news.discovery.com/autos/future-of-transportation/8-reasons-bmw-i3-130730.htm

          160km range and 3 hour recharge from house mains. For city commute, sounds great.

        • Roger Bird

          Yeah, $43,000. I will be sleeping in front of the dealer’s door while holding my breath.

          • TimB

            Sure, it is a BMW. More and cheaper will follow soon enough. Hopefully sometime before you pass out.

            • Roger Bird

              To borrow a phrase from a famous American general, I am looking forward with extremely keen anticipation.

      • Wizer13

        Or maybe not, if the LENR car from Nicolas Chauvin comes true.

        http://www.lenr-cars.com/team.php

        Yep… one can dream. But, who knows ? 40000 miles for 200$, that may bring a whole new level of economics in transportation. Why not MAGLEV trains, using the same energy ? Just don’t know for aviation though…

    • D2

      I was thinking the same thing; demand for plastics will greatly increase and at the same time costs should significantly decrease due to a must greater available supply of oil for that purpose since we won’t just be burning it up anymore.

    • andreiko

      There is no one who can do predictions about the evolution of the “ROSSI-POWER” era the possibilities are too complicated!

    • zvibenyosef

      Plastic is not environmentally friendly, it is a source of pollution and has already done great ecological damage. There is a huge collection of garbage the size of the State of Texas, floating in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, consisting mainly of plastic. The sun and the waves cause the plastic to break up into small pellets which Wildlife mistake for food, causing them to starve.
      A much better alternative are natural agricultural fibers like hemp, cotton etc. These can and should be used to replace plastic entirely.

  • artefact

    on EGOOUT blog:

    “John HadjichristosJuly 29, 2013 at 11:23 AM
    Dear Maryyugo

    Why don’t you come in one of our labs to conduct a test? It should be independent, right? Under one condition: declare in public (say here, in this blog) your name and qualifications to check that you can conduct a really independent test. Following that, then please be so kind to send us a email at [email protected] with your real name to get in contact to arrange it.

    John Hadjichristos”

    He/She MY refused to do it. After all her bashing i think that’s a no go.

    http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com/2013/07/defkalion-has-kept-its-promise.html?showComment=1375136735804#c5390932039717342439

  • dayton

    Just saying a huge fracking play in Australia estimates of 233B barrels of
    recoverable oil.
    then add: Israel, Russia, South Ireland and 34 billion barrels in California

  • Barry

    A rep from Shell Oil told me they were keeping a watchful eye on LENR. They sponsored the Future Energy event at MIT. I asked him why they would sponsor something that seemed counter productive. He was a young man. Someone who will probably be working twenty years from now unlike a lot of us. He answered, “Shell knows oil isn’t going to be around forever.”

    • Gerrit

      DECEMBER 18, 2011

      Royal Dutch Shell Game Changer Program is looking at Low Energy Nuclear Reactions

      NewEnergy Times is reporting that Royal Dutch Shell, plc, (major oil company) is interested in exploring low-energy nuclear reaction research as a possible game-changer in the energy business. Two Shell scientists, Anitha Sarkar and Gilles Buchs, with the backing of the Shell GameChanger program, are looking for opportunities to work actively with LENR experts, according to a brief introduction the researchers prepared.

      I wonder if one of these two people attended the ICCF-18

  • Alan DeAngelis

    If the government imposed a carbon tax would they then be motivated to advocate for LENR?

    • fortyniner

      It seems very unlikely, but govt. advocacy is fortunately completely unneccesary – a successful CF technology will sell itself on merit alone.

      In the UK, the only ‘energy policy’ of Cameron’s unelected government seems to be to stitch up taxpayer-funded deals for new nuclear fission power stations ASAP, while simultaneously shutting down what remains of the coal-fired ‘fleet’ in order to meet the incredibly ill-considered commitments they’ve made to the EU for ‘reducing CO2 emissions’ by 2020.

      In the longer term, i.e., when CF devices eventually become available outside of military and corporate control, they will back-pedal furiously on all the various ‘green subsidies’ they use as window dressing for the intended new nuclear builds. Their problem will be that ‘green’ or ‘low carbon’ energy has been defined in a way that allows nuclear fission to be included. This is of course in order to justify provision of hidden subsidies to this industry, and the current definition will almost certainly have to include cold fusion, which will then become eligible for similar subsidies. Until they move the goalposts anyway.

      • Alan DeAngelis

        I was just thinking that LENR would eliminate their excuse to have a tax. It would call their bluff.

  • Chris I

    The Saudis and their neighbors will se their revenue steadily declining, sooner or layer it will become a pittance and in the mean time they will be rearranging their economies and finances. They are already aware of this need, even just due to already known alternatives. Still, they won’t just close those well valves any time soon, they will simply be the cheapest source of hydrocarbons for the various uses of them.

    If competition between Leonardo, Defkalion and newcomers starts to snowball the nickel hydride source of heat, the transition will occur sooner and quicker, perhaps even quicker than Arabian investors can cope with. It will be much worse for other investors, those who have poured their cash into newfangled things like fracking and tar sands, building new pipelines and causing huge rail disaster in Quebec for instance.

    These humongous projects will thumb their noses at their investors, burp after having digested all their cash and then excrete the crap they’ve turned it in to.

    • Stephen Goodfellow

      …Or: Instead of burning oil, the new energy source will allow the impetuous necessary for an accelerated plastic industry, the likes of which we can’t even imagine.

      • Chris I

        Indeed, that’s the main one of the various uses of hydrocarbons that I mentioned. Polymers produced from them will again be cheap, if not cheaper than back in those days.

  • Joe Shea

    If DGT exhibits or streams at NI Week, it will be another blow to AR and the E-Cat. One technology will be out there and the other will not, and investors and scientists alike will draw their own conclusion from AR’s absence. It’s like Tiger Woods, who hardly plays in any tournaments anymore and is losing his competitive edge. “When you don’t play, they don’t pay.” That’s an original, BTW.

    • Stephen Goodfellow

      Joe, I would suggest that both Defkalion and Rossi have good reason to be cagey about the details that make their devices tick.
      Look at these devices; this is obviously not rocket science. I bet both competing groups are wringing their hands in the knowledge that knock-offs can be produced across the World in any low-tech garage.
      This technology wiIl sift through their fingers; will they make money? Yes. But I doubt either company is going to reap the trillions they are hoping for.

      • Dan

        I think you are correct here. These guys need to make any profits from their technology up front because it’s just a matter of time before others figure it out. They are walking a fine line between getting the technology into production and not letting the secrets out.

      • Job001

        Obviously the science, safety, engineering, thermal control, maintenance, certifications, liability, finance, and marketing issues are more than you comprehend.

        • jjaroslav

          true that…first to market is highly advantageous…but maybe not trillions

  • Andreiko

    Proposal to honor of Dr. Rossi, let’s talk in the future about “ROSSI-POWER” to the gemiddeldeburger for the negativity bearing terms, such as LENR etc. ….

    • Andreiko

      Voorstel tot eer van Dr Rossi,laten we in de toekomst spreken over

      “ROSSI-POWER” om de voor de gemiddeldeburger negativiteit dragende
      termen, zoals LENR etc…. te voorkomen.

      Dutch

    • Bento

      ‘gemiddeldeburger’= John Doe

      • Dave Lawton

        I would say John Dee

  • Venno

    Somebody said
    The stone age did not end because of a lack of stones and neither is the oil age going to end because of a lack of oil.. but because of LENR

    last part I added
    think it was some arab oil minister

    • Allan Shura

      The newer oil extraction methods are more expensive and stress natural ecology. Saudi Arabia has a joint venture with Spain for a new concept 20 MW solar power plant heating liquid salt to synchronized mirrors. They are interested in new energy. One of the advantages is that cold fusion/LENR could be a non polluting method for desalination and irrigation. The debate is if the natural ecology balance tips it will cost much more and affect everyone. The balance of power is shifting even with coal, oil and nuclear used as it is now. The north pole has liquid water this year for the first time in history. These changes are disruptive while energy solutions are adaptive. The amount of focus shift in the spectrum of energy activity and investment is what drives these projections.

      • Omega Z

        Allan

        If you refer to the news report of the melted lake, It’s been debunked.

        Not by deniers, But the Climate warming crowd. It’s actually melted ice on a chunk of Ice flow moving south.

        • Allan Shura

          The ice pack is thinning rapidly and if warming
          continues they expect open water in the summer months
          in a few decades. It may have been the first camera
          pictures of rain on the north pole if it was not a studio hoax. It looks like there have been above zero temperatures in the past. The islands in the arctic were nearly always ice covered just a few decades ago.

  • LENR4you

    Next week starts the NIWEEK 2013. Are there any rumors that Defkalion, MFMP or Celani attend NIWEEK? Are there rumors about the Keynote from NI CEO Dr. Truchard?

    • Bob Greenyer

      As we have only just received significant support from NI and exhausted from ICCF18, MFMP will not be attending.

      Francesco Celani is on his way back to Italy later today if I recall from our conversation on the weekend.

      I believe DGT will be doing a streamed demo, hopefully they will address outstanding issues.

    • Ecco the Dolphin

      It seems that Defkalion will in some way, but I can’t 100% confirm whether physically or with a streamed demo.

      • Isaac

        Dennis Cravens will exhibit

  • Alan DeAngelis

    Should we wean ourselves off of hydrocarbons or would it be better to just go cold turkey and kick our hydrocarbon habit when LENR comes online?

    • Gordon Docherty

      The sooner we kick the oil-as-fuel habit the better – burning oil is like burning money: it might keep you warm in the short term but it is not an effective use of it in the long run.

    • b4FreeEnergy

      Cold turkey! The sooner the better!

      If you only think about how much pollution we all together generate every single day … you start wondering how we can still breath without dropping death on the spot and how much time we still have.

      • fortyniner

        Sometimes it is difficult to distinguish irony from opinion here.

        ‘Cold turkey’ is not an option. CF/LENR will not ‘come online’ – manufacture of CF devices is currently zero, and so a ramping up process will obviously need to take place, together with development that will allow new applications on a rolling basis.

        Given the inevitably slow introduction and growth, which will probably be further impeded by IP wars and obstruction by vested interests, only a gradual transition is possible.

        • Alan DeAngelis

          Yeah fortyniner, I’m playing the devil’s advocate. One obvious thing we can’t do is switch over from kerosene fueled jet aircraft to LENR aircraft overnight.

          • fortyniner
            • Thinks4Self

              Very cool! That engine design has the specs to power an automobile quite well. 150hp and a 400 mile range on 10 gallons of water just need a LENR+ reactor working in a self-sustaining mode to provide the heat.

            • Alan DeAngelis

              Any news on Papp type engines?

          • Bruno

            No, but we can use LENR generated electricity to run the compressor section of a gas turbine, effectively doubling or tripling the range of a jet. This of course assume that we really see LENR power, which I remain only cautiously optimistic about.

        • b4FreeEnergy

          I know, I know but it’s all going so unbelievably slow, as if we have all the time we want to keep on messing and tinkering the way we are now. It is as if we need a real nasty catastrophe before things get into motion and will really change. Icecaps are melting down, the seas are full of plastics and other rubbish, fish populations are going down, we have nuclear waste for generations and generations before it’s not harmful anymore, earth population is growing and growing, etc., etc., but still we keep on continuing like this as if we are on the right track.

          The only good ‘behaviour’ for business seems to be ‘grow’ and make more profits, this is not sustainable, we need something else, something new and probably sooner than we think.

          Still I remain optimistic but that does not mean you cannot at the same time realise that we are messing up an entire planet and we’re just standing there watching …