The Pace of Change

I’m still travelling and am able to catch up a little here. Going through some of the comments here I was interested to read one by Guliano Bettini who noted a few comments by Andrea Rossi where he mentioned that he is now deeply involved in R&D involving the E-Cat — and since he is the chief scientist at the partner company, that’s what I would expect him to be doing.

I’m thinking we might find that the products that get built by the new partner could turn out to be quite a bit different from the 1MW plant that we have seen in various pictures and videos. That machine was basically a hand crafted one which took a long time to build, and then rebuild.

My expectation is that the units turned out by the new manufacturing partner will be redesigned quite significantly since it sounds like mass production processes will be involved. Andrea Rossi has said that in time he expects that thousands of 1 MW plants to be turned out each month. As for the domestic E-Cats, it’s hard to tell what the plans are. It seems to be a favorite idea of Rossi’s, but I’m not sure what the partner thinks of the idea since it could prove to be easily reverse engineered.

Whatever happens in the near term, however, I expect the pace of change in E-Cat design and improvement to be quite rapid. There seems to be a general acceleration in technological advances these days, and LENR development could mirror other tech fields such as microprocessors where for decades now processor speed and storage capacity has been doubling every eighteen months or so.

  • Andrew Macleod

    This is probably old news to some but I don’t believe I saw this write up before so I’m going to repost it for anyone that may have missed it too. It’s a pretty fair assessment of the situation.

    http://phys.org/news/2013-05-rossi-e-cat-energy-density-higher.html

    The author claims to have been at the present experment.

    • Andrew Macleod

      Read it wrong disregard author comment

  • Bernie Koppenhofer

    If DEKA is Rossi’s US partner, why would Rossi ask for Sterling engines to mate with E-Cat? DEKA has been researching sterling engines for years. On the other hand DEKA does have a reputation for keeping all of their research very secret.

  • Jim

    Other possible reasons why no leaks from the staff of Rossi’s partner.

    It’s probably a relatively small team, in a deliberately secure environment, with the information distributed on a “need to know” basis, and the team members hand-picked for responsibility.

    Then, any flagrant leak would probably risk NDA violation and seriously punitive legal action, as opposed to probably large bonuses for a successful product launch.

    And (this was the interesting thought to me), any subtle leak might not go very far, as it could be construed as bragging or ooey-ooey nonsense, or be met with the same gales of skepticism that we are all too familiar with, at the local tavern level.

    • Kim

      Very Good!

      This Scenario is exactly what is
      being played out right now.

      Respect
      Kim

    • fortyniner

      Well put. But of course many of those who repeat the ‘how could there be no leaks’ mantra already know that and are simply trying to make the best of a very weak position. Lean times for the tro11s – but you gotta earn a crust.

  • KD

    Frank Acland

    Dear Andrea,
    You mention that the E-Cat is undergoing changes — which is to be expected in product development. Are these changes going to lead to:
    1. Redesigned E-Cat reactors?
    2. Redesigned plants?
    2. Cheaper products?
    3. Higher COP?
    4. Smaller products?
    5. Larger products?
    Many thanks and best wishes,
    Frank Acland

    Andrea Rossi

    Frank Acland:
    All the points you touched are encompassed in what I said recently, which is: the E-Cat technology is undergoing rigorous testing and the results, whatever they are, will provide further guiodance about its potential.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

    • Jorge

      Except for the typo, this does not sound like Rossi speak.
      Still, it doesn’t make make it any less true.

      • psi

        Agreed, the contents are him, but he’s getting guidance with his English, which is a good thing.

      • kasom

        may be, it is one of the promised big surprises

      • Jim

        And, it makes complete sense.

        As would be the case in any product development initiative, they would at any point in time have a definition of a “target” release, which would be the responsibility of product management in coordination with everyone else involved.

        The target release would include broad parameters for physical size, maintainability, production cost, output and so on (and not least, earliest ship date).

        The engineers would then take whatever pre-release prototype they have at that time (starting originally with the eCat that Rossi delivered to them, and now, if we can believe, it the eCat they built themselves) and through design and experimentation refine the prototype toward the target release definition.

        In the process of doing so they would inevitably find things that would either exceed or fall short of the target parameters in different ways.

        These objective facts would then be fed back into the product management target definition.

        Which would cause the target parameters, including the earliest ship date, to change.

        If it’s a real product, that’s the way it would be. Wanting it to be some other way means not wanting it to be real. Like, should they have shipped the first replica of Rossi’s eCat? Should they ship the first iteration that “seems good enough”?

        The game now is to be alert for any information that would indicate that the product development cycle as described above is taking place.

        Rossi’s post above could be construed as such evidence.

        • KD

          As we can see from the beginning, with the first presentation of E-cat at the Bologna University on Jan.14,2011, the E-Cat is going through evolution.
          From the beginning it was in shape of ball 50cm^2, than shape of cigar with hydrogen delivered under pressure.

          Then it was some kind of plate with the fuel as a solid compound of hydrogen with other material.

          Then came the Hot E-Cat, Tiger E-Cat and Mouse & Cat.

          With passing time, Rossi and his team are learning something new. So we have to accept that there might be another changes before starting mass production.

          • kasom

            “starting mass production.”

            for me it could be the shape of a whiskybottle or of a lawn-mower doesnt matter but

            please com out!

    • Bernie Koppenhofer

      I have been conversing with Rossi for over two and a half years, this does not sound like Rossi.

      • KD

        Why not?
        He just agree what Frank is suggesting in his questions.

      • captain

        In some way, now as now, Rossi doesn’t like to tell important news, but the one that he and his partner are working hard.
        Don’t pretend to know too much from him.

        The 1 MW plant is is operation, and ASAP it will be connected to turbines to create electricity. This is the goal.

        What else more? Give time to time and as I’ve said time ago, we could see good news in sept.

    • MToll

      This wording is very strange. it reads to me as: “eCat is a technology in development; we don’t know its potential yet; we don’t know if we will ever make any commercial products”. It’s as if he is backing from everything he has said so far.

      • Jim

        I can see that your remarks in quotes are within the bounds of speculation, however, I don’t see a basis for the conclusion in your last sentence.

      • Omega Z

        Sounds exactly as it is.

        R&D in progress. Optimizing to reach it’s full potential.
        There are many issues to be worked through before this becomes fully deployable in the sense that many here expect.

  • CHARLES(SWVA)

    When I was a kid – about 70 years ago – I was reading in Popular Science that the Earth would soon be on the Hydrogen Economy.

    I just watched the good professor on poptech tell us we could start producing the means tomorrow (Monday morning). What time does the hardware store open. I’m gonna buy a 3-D printer to make that plastic storage unit.

  • Richard Hill

    Admin said “…microprocessors where for decades now processor speed and storage capacity has been doubling every eighteen months or so.”
    Other aspects of microprocessors may be doubling but actually speed has not improved much in many years. The upper limit today is about 2x the level of 5 yrs ago. The “overclockers” have to use tricks like cooling with liquid nitrogen to get improvements. So like most technologies, the e-cat is likeky to plateau sooner or later.

    • TimB

      I think chip manufacturers veered away from sheer clock speed, some years ago. Parallel is rampant in my 1.5Ghz smartphone. The price/performance of microprocessors is indeed doubling every 18 months or so. Moores law has some life in it yet. Until the next paradigm takes over for further advances. There’s no such thing as a plateau in a broad technological sense.

      • Nicholas payne

        The real problem is the speed of light, which any electronic engineer will tell you
        is so damn slow

    • wolfgang gaerber

      The pace for clockspeed might have been stalled for some reasons, but the entire performance of computing systems vs. power consumption and size is still on the run.
      Today I can buy the performance of a 4 year old workstation equipped with 2 Xeons each 115Watt TDP + superexpensive RAM in the formfactor of a laptop driven from an SSD – so I think I would see that at a different angle.
      Compared to the e-cat – I will need not more than 20kW to power a house – there could be improvments in safety, service interval, size, handling,… newer turbine systems, solid state converters,…., self sustaining
      The thing about Microprocessors:
      They are not built to perform as fast as possible – they are built to fit to certain products – and sales prices.
      I take sufficent performance, small die size(thinner structures), huge wafers, decent clock speed to achieve high wafer yields – and get the most profit for usecase xy. Its a PRODUCT.

      • Roger Bird

        I see LENR to be a bigger technological step than the first transistor, so I would expect bigger changes taking for a longer period of time. And the transistor was invented in 1947, 66 years ago.

        • Iggy Dalrymple

          Roger, LENR may not be the next big thing.
          There are other fishes in the sea.

          • Roger Bird

            Explain, por favor. You are welcome to email me privately. If you don’t already have my email, ask Frank.

    • CHARLES(SWVA)

      Moore’s Law is the driver you folks are probably trying to use. It did not refer to speed but instead referred to the number of transistors that could be placed in a given area doubling every two years.

      Doubling the E-Cats output repeatedly would likely result in a melting phenomena.

  • Roger Bird

    Please, some of you people get discouraged much too easily. Did I miss something; did the May 2013 Levi-Essen Report somehow not happen, or was it proven by supernaturally insightful arguments from skeptopaths to be untrue? Did all of those 2011 demos never happen? Did McKubre, Rothwell, Hegelstein, et. al all have a press conference and laughingly admit that they were just kidding?

    Exciting things might be delayed. But everything is OK.

  • Ö
    • Roger Bird

      I watched the whole thing. That was 16 months ago. It adds to my belief that Rossi is for real. Thank you for this. I would type your handle, but I don’t know how, so thank you anyway.

  • kasom

    Andrea Rossi
    July 13th, 2013 at 4:51 PM

    paddeling back more and more…..

    Martin:
    Exactly the same. So far, because technological development can require a long process, involving many changes as a technology moves forward. E-Cat is undergoing that process now. This process will continue as lonf as needed, as I already said, until such tine as the team believes the technology is able to fulfill its promise in commercial settings.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

    • Kim

      Translation…

      Were going to keep tweaking it until
      we can figure out how to slip into oblivion
      We can’t make money with it.

      Respect
      Kim

      • captain

        Are U sure?
        The future of an 1MW plant is not in the size of a traditional container (those arrived from Italy), but smaller, say 2 cubic meters.
        Thus a tremendous need of continuos development.

    • Kim

      Translation…

    • Jim

      Translation:

      There’s a lot of ground to cover between laboratory transistors and transistor radios.

      Suppose every time you set a release target the engineers came up with 5% more output and 8% more cost effectiveness.

      Patience, grasshoppers….

  • Roger Bird

    You might want to check out this article:

    http://discussions.latimes.com/20/lanews/la-sci-sn-solar-tsunami-magnetic-coronal-mass-ejection-20130712/10

    Check out the comments. You will see me, but Barney Linet’s comment(s) is(are) what I want you to see. He obviously is smarter at these things than I am.

    I didn’t mention LENR because I wanted to ease him into the idea that fusion or “nuclear events” can happen in places other than the center of stars.

  • Gisli

    I think this is very interesting. I have not seen discussion about this on this site although I might have missed it. http://www.poptech.org/popcasts/dan_nocera_personalized_energy

    • Kim

      I have watch this before.

      M.I.T. has given us the future.

      The “Money People” are blocking and
      frustrating us a every turn.

      Once the truth is known we can get down
      to proper business of using water and
      the sun.

      Enough.

      Respect
      Kim

      • Allan Shura

        It looks more like if we want to see something done we have to do it ourselves.

        Surely a comparatively simple device can be designed from the original palladium phenomenon to kick start the market.

        Brillouin Energy Corporation was saying they hoped to have a product by the end of last year. The web site does not say much after the Chinese patent was granted and a few months ago there was speculation of a research contract with SRI of Menlo park.

        • AlainCo

          Brillouin can rationally stay silent , like Defkalion try to do (without best serious), and like Etiam Oy seems to do.

          However latest comment on Defkalion, if confirmed report that it produce copper… which may contradict the theory of Brillouin Corp… Since this company seems too much focused on the theory, I’m afraid it slow down of block their development…

          • Roger Bird

            If an internal combustion gas engine is not running optimally, then it will produce emissions different than when it is running optimally. I submit that the reason that we are getting different transmutations is because of something like this, although “optimally” may not be an appropriate characteristic.

            • Allan Shura

              The first internal combustion engines were nowhere near optimal.

              They were on the market because they did some value added work at a lower
              cost or advantage than was on the market at the time. The use before perfection also enabled new possibilities and new products.

              The first logical market for LENR/cold fusion is simply to produce heat at a
              lower cost. The added advantage is the preservation and balance of the environment and wide portability and
              access to the source of energy or heat.

              • Roger Bird

                I don’t see how your point relates to my point.

    • Kim

      H2 producing catalyst that operates at 1000 mA/cm2 at 35 mV overpotential.

      Sunlight to H2! at MIT

      76% efficient.

      Nothing wrong with burning H2 with
      a good safe storage system.

      24/7 energy from the sun.

      Respect
      Kim

      • andreiko

        Easy recipe for energy storage 2 AL2 + 6H2O + Catalyst gives 2 (AL2O3) + 12 h which merge into 6H2 so 54 grams already gives 66 liter hydrogen, hiebij connect 3 forms of energy free again.

        a) low-temperature formation of AL2O3, all w/c.

        b) fusion energy 6 H + H to 6H2

        c) 6H2 to 6H2O

        At a) begins the reaction from burning Aluminium in water with catalyst, at ambient temperature, and can be extremely intense but is easy to master.

        Conclusion; make of excess energy already and we get H2 gas and heat back while the storage is completely safe.

        • Kim

          What is the catalyst?

          • andreiko

            Secret, to being a meaningful demonstration can take place.

        • Alan DeAngelis

          It takes a lot of energy to make aluminum metal from alumina. That’s why Alcoa is located at Niagara Falls. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hall%E2%80%93H%C3%A9roult_process

          • andreiko

            The response would be as mentioned by me earlier between step in the recycling of aluminium can be optimally used, because the aluminium alloys do not constitute a nuisance to this reaction to take place.

    • Barry

      Thanks Gisli. Interesting and hopeful. It seems a lot of energy ideas are taking place. I like the image of giving energy systems to individuals. Will keep an eye on this guy.

      On a more spacey level I’ve heard 2015 will be a year of transformation from old forms to new. Perhaps old forms are “dying off one funeral at a time.” Also heard 2015 is when the economy will get back on track. Perhaps we’re at a time for another growth spurt of freedom and cheap energy will take the path of least resistance from the team that is actually concerned with humanity more than selling out. And cheap energy will circumvent the “powers that be” through the rise of consciousness (largely due to the internet. Love or hate the internet it is a tool we are still harnessing for expanding consciousness awareness, filled with darkness and light).

      What the video shows is an old idea updated and made more efficient. I heard years ago if you put solar panels on an average size garage, in six months time you could slit enough hydrogen to power a hydrogen car for 30 thousand miles. I saw a self sustaining home on the internet that made it’s own hydrogen in the same way but the storage tanks were enormous and the process was rocket sciencey. If it can be simplified…

      I guess most of us are focused on Cold Fusion, but there is a lot of interesting research going on. Interesting times.

  • LB

    …”since it could prove to be easily reverse engineered. ”
    It will be reverse engineered regardless if it is the industrial or home type. The only thing Rossi can hope for is a profitable gap of time and without a patent, that time will be short. After that it will be common knowledge and spread around the world.

    • Kim

      This is the crux of the waiting we
      are enduring, they truly are trying to
      figure out how to make money fast.

      The revenue will drop fast as time goes out.

      If they can’t figure out how to make money
      I believe they will attempt to keep it static or repress it.

      Its just the way it works with money.

      Respect
      Kim

    • Mike Cheek

      Knowing that something can be done, that something is possible, can be half the battle. On the other hand, we all know it is possible to make Coca Cola, and yet no one’s figured it out yet. If at some point they can make a public demonstration and provide convincing proof, they will certainly get all the free advertising they could hope for.

      • Stringbustr

        No, but we can make cola which is very close to the same thing!