New Poll: Your Estimation of the E-Cat Following the 3rd Party Report

Someone suggested we have a new poll following yesterday’s publication of the report and I think it’s a good idea. Have your thoughts about the E-Cat changed since the publication of the report? If so, how? Please feel free to explain your position in the comments.


  • Jordi Heguilor

    Hey guys, how come everybody has forgotten the “old” E-cat? The 1 MW one? Sold and delivered to happy customers?

    What could be simpler than taking one of those blue containers, suspending it from a crane, and measuring its output. 1 MW, Rossi is the new Leonardo Da Vinci. None, he is full of …

    Easy.

  • John Loraditch

    Does this third-party report do anything on the positive for BEC or Defkalion? Will they beat Rossi to deliver an industrial or residential unit

    • Tom

      As a retired chemist, I have spent many years involved in research projects which initially, seemed to be short simple projects but which required numerous redesigns of the project after one problem or another caused a setback. The hope of a final product of great value was what drove us on. I believe Andrea Rossi is experiencing the same frustrations but the hope/expectation of a high value product drives him and his coleagues on

      • AlainCo

        One innovator manager told me tha the rule in innovation project is that it takes 5 years, and at any date you think it will be ready in 6 month at worst.

        Normally it will finish in 2016.

  • Winebuff

    I had misgivings over the years but in the back of my head I had hoped it would be real. One more thing, the co that is doing another round of testing will those test results be published or will those be privately held? Also who will do these tests??

  • Chris I

    My opinion hasn’t changed all that much with this report. I see less chance he might have seriously goofed it, but for the rest no great change.

    COP is at least 6, slim chances he is deliberately deceiving folks, it won’t change energy production on a global scale before his secret gets out and I reckon he’ll eventually have competitors with some better method (perhaps even making his obsolete) and it’ll be a while before all the skeptopaths come around.

  • sparks

    I voted “more convinced,” the reason being that the paper shows in greater detail than previously available, that the reaction can be stabilized in a rather methodical way. I really like the near-periodic, uniform pulsing waveform of the resistor elements providing e-cat sustainment through regular excitation.

    That said, my long-held (and quite UNPOPULAR) position that commercially viable e-cats, even for the power grid, are years away has not changed. Looking at the raw, R&D nature of the device makes it clear that a huge amount of system development, productization and marketing is needed. Also, the relatively low COP means that the profitability may be marginal, unless they wring all possible costs out of this thing.

    Let me be blunt (because any funding source would be equally blunt): Bringing this product to market will be expensive and will need a compelling business case. Put another way, from a black box perspective, WE ALREADY HAVE FREE, LOW-RISK ENERGY FROM SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC PANELS, IN A LOW-COST, PRODUCTIZED PACKAGE, AND YET LOOK HOW SLOWLY THEY ARE GAINING MARKET TRACTION. So my position is, the e-cat will not take the world by storm. I don’t like it, but that doesn’t change things. Counter-arguments welcome.

    • Joe Shea

      As I predicted in a recent post, there will be no media frenzy over the E Cat validation study. Other than Mark Gobbs, and thank God for him, I have seen nothing except on small blogs like this one. If the national energy establishment – the DOE, etc., stood up and took notice, that might change. But even NASA does not have the media cachet to bring widespread media interest together. If you are looking for headlines, you are bound to be disappointed until Rossi wins the Nobel Prize, which I think he will next year.

    • Dan Woodward

      Home solar is growing at an astonishing rate! Still, it won’t generate any heat or electricity at night. The E-CAT can generate heat for months on end, and could be used to heat large pools at resorts all over the world. Neighborhoods could use them now for heat without any carbon impact, and very low annual energy cost.

    • Donald Duck

      Solar panels are a joke. Don’t produce useful power at night or even during the day if cloudy. The only reason they are popular is because of the subsidies. However the rest of your comment is rational.

      • RGCheek

        they can reduce your home electric bill

        deep cycle batteries can store an appreciable amount

        but daylight hours are peak hours, for the most part, except during winter

    • Jordi Heguilor

      Excuse me, but what do you mean that: “That said, my long-held (and quite UNPOPULAR) position that commercially viable e-cats, even for the power grid, are years away has not changed.”

      Three 1 MW “Cold Cats” have been sold and delivered (in blue containers) to customers in the USA.

      Don’t tell me you don’t believe what Rossi says?

  • jfab

    What about the cylinder emissivity, which was set to 1, but which is known to be much lower (somewhere between 0.1 and 0.5), for this type of steel at these temperatures?

    See:

    http://www.omega.com/temperature/Z/pdf/z088-089.pdf

    http://www.omega.com/literature/transactions/volume1/emissivitya.html

    http://motls.blogspot.ca/2013/05/tommaso-dorigo-impressed-by-cold-fusion.html

    • Zedshort

      It is the emissivity of the coating that matters. Most black paints will give an emissivity of at least 0.9 By assuming emissivity of 1.0 they erred on the conservative side.

      • Bob

        How is an emissivity of 1.0 conservative?
        Is there anything which has an emissivity greater than 1.0?
        Have they invented something which is blacker than black?
        I know some washing powders claim they wash whites whiter than white, but I haven’t heard of blacker than black.

  • Dave

    If you actually study the report rather than blindly accepting it because you want the E-Cat to be true you’ll see numerous fatal flaws that would get it rejected by any reputable peer reviewed journal. Just the fact that the measurements were taken *after* the device was already running makes no sense.

    • kasom

      Please explain why……

      What I see is a report about a prototype with proofed function.

      Whether there is a COP of 3 or 6 doesnt really matter.

      Rossi never said, that the HOT e-cat were a product ready to sell.

      I am glad to see, that it works as a prototype. Let the US-Partner form the products an bring them to market.

    • trevor

      You did not read the entire report! The second phase allowed evaluation from start up!!

  • Robert

    I voted that I am more convinced that Rossi has an LENR device.

    It was not an option, but I would have also voted that I believe
    this test and recent happenings the past month or so make me less
    confident that Rossi has a market ready device.

    • AlainCo

      You make a point, for the most optimistic people.

      Sure that test confort the people doubting a little about the reality of e-cat. It is clearly a real reactor, working.

      however the test shows that the COP is not fantastic, and that there are still some problem of stability, or reliability.

      It is a revolution, but like the first steam-engine. to be improved.
      Comparison is not so stupid, because e-cat have something similar to Cugnot “steam dray”…

  • Blanco69

    Ok, we’ve had 24hrs since the report. People here will know that I’ve been on and off the fence as much as anyone in this. My head and my heart have had a two year war where my head has constantly fought to curb my heart’s enthusiasm for the reality of the ecat. Whilst I dont believe that this report provides the smoking gun that we all(my heart included) hoped, I do think that we have made a great step forward to the point that I reckon I’m now convinced that Rossi has something. Yes, some of the guys involved in the report have been around ecats before and yes, using water calorimetry may provide a less ambiguous result however, I dont think they are involved in some pyramid style investment fraud so we should just put that theory to bed and get on with supporting these guys in any way we can because we all know for sure that there are more mountains to climb on this before the cats become ubiquitous.

  • JohnB0647

    I’ve believed in LENR since F&P’s first paper but I have a hard time believing there will be any mass marketing of the technology for a decade or maybe a lot longer. I pray I’m wrong but…..

    When I looked last year, 17 of the 25 biggest corporations in the world had significant dependence on oil for their profits. These guys are going to fight any new technology that will cut into their profits and corporate valuations. For 50 years current profits have had little to do with corporate stock value. It’s always about future income. What happens if LENR expands geometrically into the energy market and these corporations face shrinking sales forever. How much will these corporations spend to get their tame congressmen to block this new technology in the name of “safety” or “security”. A while ago Rossi said something about explosions under some conditions …they’ll say that’s a safety issue, lets test for five or ten years. It could also be a security issue… they’ll suggest maybe terrorists could make the reaction run out of control. Someone already tried to have Rossi’s plant in FL stopped on the basis of “nuclear hazard”. I’m convinced that the more “real” the process becomes the more they will spend to stop it.

    There could be huge international fallout from LENR. How many nations are dependent on oil revenue? OilPrice.com listed 8 that would face very serious problems from a collapse in oil prices/consumption. A Wikipedia article lists 11. Will they tolerate collapsing economies and civil unrest from a new tech not supported by the big and powerful?

    What happens to military forces everywhere if they have to retool EVERYTHING in order to be viable against an enemy that doesn’t have to truck around millions of gallons of fuel?

    How about the nuclear industry. It’s common knowledge that the US Gov/Military/Defense Industry have quietly underwritten HENR technology for 65 years in the hope of getting more weapons and to get economies of scale for existing ones. Will those guys just say “sorry about the billions we’ve spent… we just quietly go home now?”

    I believe there will be no end of forces trying to put the breaks on open market distribution of a viable LENR technology. I hope I’m wrong.

    • FRANK

      Hey John, this is exactly what I think, too.
      You have to add the following groups opposing LENR:
      Scientist and Rearchers: a lot of public founded research is directly related to energy efficiency, global warming, hot fusion, scare resources etc
      The alternative power industries (solar, wind)
      Environmental groups (most of them will face the threat of not longer being needed)
      Farm land owners (as bio fuels won’t be needed anymore and desalination will make the deserts blossy, land will be an abundant resource)

      But: the country which embraces LENR, will have a military, strategic and economic advantage it will be able to beat much more powerfull countries. E. G. Think of india, Russia, brasilia, indonesia or china embracing this technology while thd US don’t…
      Even if they embrace it secretly just for drones first….
      LENR will make seasteading viable at large scale. Or image small island attracting educated people because of relaxed lives with 20 hous a week work time…

    • fortyniner

      I’ve been saying much the same thing for quite a while, but I think the situation is made more complex by the fact that there will be winners and losers in the banking and finance world and the military-industrial complex.

      For the bankers, who in turn own and control the big corporations, there are vast profits to be made, to set against the losses in fossil fuels and nuclear fission. At the next level down, militaries and some corporate bosses will see clear opportunities, while others see their empires collapsing. Likewise (at an even lower level) governments will see their revenues collapsing, without much upside from their POV. All in all a new balance will emerge, but not without a lot of turmoil.

      I think that the attempts to ridicule and deny through the use of shills and corrupted scientists and media people has largely failed, and the option to suppress this technology is no longer viable, quite probably because the people behind such attacks are opposed by others within TPTB.

      It seems very likely that a sort of consensus is in the process of emerging that will ‘allow’ cold fusion, but only within the context of military and corporate (e.g., powergen utilities) organisations. This way all the perceived advantages for TPTB can be obtained, control of dissemination can be almost total – allowing strategic withdrawal from industries marked for termination, taxes can be levied by governments using methods similar to those currently in use (metering), and private/small scale use can be banned and suppressed on specious safety grounds.

      Everyone’s a winner – except the average citizen, who will pay for a worldwide conversion to LENR through ‘green’ and other taxes, but will see precious few of the benefits.

      • Felix Fervens

        +1

      • RGCheek

        The PTB tried to stop the diffusion of technology before; gun powder, steam power, mass communication systems, etc.

        Look how well that worked out for them.

        LENR will spread faster than desk top PCs did or cell phones.

    • trevor

      Exactly! and therein lies the rub.

    • Jim Anderson

      I think LENR is worth exploring. What the future holds isn’t clear but if LENR realizes what it’s potential seems to be we are in for some significant changes.

      Many of the large corporations are dependent on oil production and sales for a huge amount of revenue. But corporations change continuly. There was a time before 17 of the top 25 corporations were dependent on oil and there will be a time when they will have a reduced dependency on oil. Even with out LENR the oil industry will change as decreased supplys and added costs kick in.

      Even if LENR has a large impact oil will still be used as a source of chemicals plastics and in the case of natural gas fertilizer. The oil industry gains a longer life due to supplys lasting longer. Long term the industry is looking at what comes after oil with LENR the future comes sooner.

      Many of the oil producing countries are already working to reduce their dependence on oil because the oil won’t last forever regardless of what happens with LENR.

      LENR will cause a mass retooling of militaries through out the world and those countries that can’t adapt will fall behind. Many defense contractors will benefit from the replacement of current equipment.

      The US Gov/Military/Defense Industry won’t say they are sorry for the money they spent they will say we need massive spending to overcome the LENR gap.

      LENR may cause massive dislocations but that won’t prevent what will happen.

    • BST

      Dear Tin Foilers, the large corps. may not like it but with today’s direct to consumer, good idea propagating, kickstarter fundraising, makers movement, they may not have much control over it. As mentioned, solar is free energy and gaining ground but still is a tiny component of overall generation. So, lets not give the PTB that much power. Please…

  • Kim

    This is impressive.

    Mark Gibbs
    Forbes

    “The E-Cat has roughly four orders of magnitude more specific energy and three orders of magnitude greater peak power than gasoline!”

    Respect
    Kim

  • Bob

    On a first skim through of the report I was most impressed, but now as I read throuh in more detail, not quite so much, but still impressed.

    First of all, something which dampened my enthusiasm;-
    Consistent with what has been said by others, I was under the impression that the third party independent test was to be done by a group of people totally disconnected and unrelated to the proceedings so far. That is, I was expecting they would have had no previous involvement with Rossi and therefore we could expect a totally non-biased assessment of the technology.
    Unfortunately that is clearly not the case, particularly in relation to the writer of the report.
    I have not heard of some of the other names so I don’t know if they also have any undisclosed involvement prior to this report. I am assuming most have not, but we know that some have.
    I am sure that if I had suggested some months ago that Rossi might have carefully chosen the people to do the test and chosen prof. Levi to write up the report I would have been abused for suggesting such a thing. As it turns out, that has indeed been the case.
    I am not suggesting that the report has been falsified in any way but had all the people involved been previously uninvolved in the matter, the perception of independence would have been much more sound.

    To the first picture on page 2, showing a bright red to yellow red hot ecat. Now this is what a device at 850 deg C should look like and this is what was missing in all the earlier photos which were claimed to be at 850 deg C. They were not, and finally, this one is, so I was impressed. Very much so.
    In my haste I initially thought this was produced from an input power of 360 watts so I was understandably very impressed. As it turns out, my first read was too skimpy and in this photo the input power is said to be 1Kw on “the primary resistor coils”. (coils, more than one) I don’t know if that means the total input power to the device was 1kw or if it means that 1Kw was applied to more than one coil plus some other amount to any secondary resistor coils, making the total input power something in excess of 1Kw.
    These are the things which should be made crystal clear because it very much alters the assessment of the information.
    They are also the points which can be fudged over if someone wants to give a misleading impression.
    So far, I have assumed the total input power to be 1Kw and on that basis, the photo is still impressive. I fully accept that the heat displayed on an object of that size in free air could not be achieved from only the input power of 1 kilowatt, so I am impressed.
    On the basis of that one photo I am more impressed with this so called failed test than I am with the later ‘successful’ tests. In fact, I consider the failed test to be the successful test because it is really this one which changes my view on the matter.
    Perhaps they should have just written up a detailed report on this test, as far as was possible, and published that back in early December. I would have been happy with that.

    So where am I now? Not totally convinced but at least I’m back sitting on the fence.

    • Bob

      Having just clicked on the “more convinced” button for the first time in two years, :) I notice that there are 2 percent who are now “less convinced”. I’m interested to hear why thay are less convinced if they would like to put in their 2.2 cents worth. (2.2c including 10% GST)

    • GreenWin

      Bob, you overestimate the relative import of your “impression.” Without credentials on the order of the Report authors, comments here (including mine) are little more than off cuff opinion, and have no effect on the commercialization of LENR.

    • Donald Duck

      I agree, the ‘failed’ test is the one that is convincing since it doesn’t require any mathematics to dither about with.

      If 1kw was the input power it is not possible to heat the cylinder to the measured temperature. Anybody can prove this to themselves at home by taking their 1kw electric radiator and applying it to an object similar to the one described.

      It is also obviously impossible to melt a stainless steel cylinder as described with 1kw input power, much less melt the ceramic outer cylinders also as described.

      Ergo, the effect is proven to be real in straightforward terms, or the experimeters are frauds. The latter possibility is ridiculous in my opinion since at least four of them are Swedes independent of Rossi and funded by Elforsk.

      • RGCheek

        ++

  • Ecat
    • daniel maris

      That’s amusing – I was just coming on to say that if anything would get a reaction going on this paper it would be the guy on Forbes.com! LOL and here it is…

      Yes, I think if anything will kick this into the mainstream it is this…but I remain slightly sceptical about the MSM on this. :)

  • Adam Lepczak

    The cat is out of the bag, it is up to us now to start spreading the awareness of this. Grab yerrr pitchforks and torches folks!

  • h_corey

    Its a long road to a heater in Home Depot. The best we can hope for is an entity with deep pockets decides to fast track it.

    • Kim

      You won’t see a domestic model until
      it has the blessings of money or the
      demise of the bankers.

      and it will have to be blessed by the
      highest priest of science.

      Respect
      Kim

      • Garry

        The high priests will turn around their opinion if they smell a Nobel for explaining how it works at the pure physics level.

  • enduser

    Oil Price says December not November, but yes, wrong way round.

  • Pachu

    There is an explanation wich involves fair questioning and no excess energy, use google to translate.
    http://francisthemulenews.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/el-timo-de-la-margarita-y-el-catalizador-de-energia-e-cat-ht2-de-rossi/

    The next test let the tester measure on this device even the propietary wave form…

  • Luca Salvarani

    Noting has changed for me. I have always been on Rossi’s side.

    • Miles

      +1. This should be making International Headlines. “The domestic units will be availbale early 2014″.

      • kwhilborn

        Rossi says Home Units require too much certifications. Why would you claim this? He will be busy just doing orders he has.

        Also a home unit could be dismantled and copied. The secret catalyst is still a secret for now, why would he sell to a home?

        I am happy Validation report has been released, but home units are far away.

        • Miles

          It was an email from Roger Green. But i guess with anything that is announced, it is subject to change.

        • Glenn

          I always saw the whole home unit thing as an unwelcome distraction from what I’m most interested in seeing: cats on the grid.

          I’m sure there are some folks here who dream of a gridless power economy… I think the grid is here to stay so long as the majority of people like me don’t want to have to be responsible for maintaining something as important as their electric power. It’s bad enough to have to refill the A/C every year or so.

          I recognize the niche market of people who require or prefer to generate their own power. I also recognize that home units fit into the grand humanitarian vision of bringing power to every citizen of all 3rd world nations.

          Home units are a natural direction for the technology to grow, but that’ll happen in due time. Right now Rossi’s limited resources should be focused on getting these things able to be hooked up to the grid.

          • Omega Z

            Glenn

            I agree. The Grid has many years ahead of it. If for no other reason then People don’t want the responsibility. Also the E-cat isn’t ready for that.

            But it is well suited for small local operation which SHOULD be more dependable. A storm 80 miles away wont disrupt power. It should also be much cheaper. We Hope.

            OH. And if you have to recharge your A/C every year. Somethings wrong. They should go years without losing enough freon to be a problem.(At least 10). And if it’s 20 years old, you need a new 1 because they are so much more efficient now.

        • Omega Z

          kwhilborn

          Somewhat Agree. It’s a ways down the Road.
          1st used as supplemental heating.

          Everything else to make it really fit in the home is yet to be developed. Most of what exists is not cheap & will need redesigned/engineered to fit the E-cat & prices will have to drop.

          And None of this will happen until the Home Heating E-cat is for sale. 5 years would probably be optimistic before a reasonably priced CHP system is available.

          One very Positive Note: Just the fact that it will become available changes everything Including price suppression. As In, I’m not going to jack my prices up if it provides my competition momentum.

  • lukedc
    • Shane D.

      They have the “first test” taking place this march, and the “second test” the november before. Think about that.

      Not one to be easily excited, but when you can do that… then you have my attention!

      Sure looks like more to this LENR then just excess energy.

      • RGCheek

        You need to read it again, dude. Page 2 plainly states the first test was in December and the second in March.

  • Kimball

    +1 ;)