Speed of E-Cat Proliferation

Here’s a comment by Andrea Rossi when asked how long it would take to build a hypothetical 1GW electric plant. The questioner calculates that it would take 213,000 Hot Cat 10kW units to build such a plant.

This question needs a study that cannot be made in minutes. We will face this problem when and if we will foresee that such a problem is in the horizon. In any case, the robotized line we already have designed is able to make half million modules per year, and to double this capacity is not a big problem; besides, much work can be outsourced, and we have already organized a network of manufacturers we can outsource our production to ( for the non confidential parts).

A rough estimation that I have read is that it takes 15 Terrawatts of generating power to meet the world’s current energy needs, so if my calculations are correct, to meet that need you would need to build 1500 1GW plants to do that — which would require 320 million 10 kW hot cat modules. (Since Rossi has said that the new hot cat plants use 1KW modules now, that number may need to be increased to 3.2 billion)

I may be way off here in my math, but the way I look at it, there would be a tremendous amount of work required to have the E-Cat proliferate to a point where it would become a dominant source of energy, but if the technology really is far superior to anything else that is available, market forces will most likely ensure that the production capacity will be met, and possibly at great speed.

Please correct my math if I am wrong here!

  • Bob

    Where is all this talk of 10kw ecats and hotcats coming from?
    Rossi started with the claims of 10 kilowatt outputs but in all the videos of tests, the best he could claim was 5kw, and even that was very shaky, so the specs were reduced to that.
    Then just recently, when discussing the latest independent tests, the specs suddenly reduced to 1kw per ecat, and we still have no confirmation that it produced even this, although it might have if the heater element was a 1kw capacity.
    Strangely though, all the talk on the Rossi-blog is all about 10Kw outputs.
    Did I miss something here or is it just another disconnect between ambitions and reality?

    • Omega Z

      Bob

      You’ve missed a lot of details somewhere likely from not following close. No problem as even regulars miss details from time to time.

      Since the beginning Rossi has had much higher then 10Kw & according to Focardi, COP>400. Also reported of COP>200 several times. They have Neutron’s escape at these high COP’s which are deadly.

      In the research process they scaled it down very low & back to 10Kw with COP>6. My Opinion about this is finding a Level of very useable levels while retaining a high safety level. The 10Kw/COP.6 being where Rossi settled.

      We’ve seen data showing higher COP’s up to 20, but Rossi always maintains a(6). I suspect this has to do with the possibility of escaping Neutrons. Neutrons would spell No Product in the Home & massive shielding like in conventional nuclear plants for commercial use. Hence massive cost increase & safety matters.

      I’ve Posted to Rossi a couple questions involving this & other things that Totally disappear. I assume it’s information he doesn’t want discussed at this time as it would cause him unwanted controversy in a final product where this will no longer be of concern.

      The 1Kw you speak of is what Rossi calls the Mouse. This is embedded in the 10Kw Cat. We no very little about the Mouse other then it has a COP>1. Rossi will give no other details of significance. Other then you could embed something even smaller in the Mouse-Technically Infinite. It appears to enhance the 10Kw Cat with probably large COP gains.

      I’ve Posted Rossi about this also as to Does it reduce the Input energy to the 10Kw Cat or Enhance the Capture process(I Didn’t mention the Neutrons intentionally) allow higher COP while retaining Safety Limits.

      This too disappeared to never-land. Seems anything that could pertain to safety is off limits at this time. Unwanted controversy. As long as the Finished product is perfectly safe it wont matter, but Questions pertaining to it in the developing process can cause unnecessary concern. As long as that’s the case, I don’t mind my questions disappearing. It’s not my intent to cause Rossi problems over my curiosity…

      What I have determined is once you exceed COP>20, You find a quick loss of return in multiple ways.

      You need to Double COP to Reduce input by half. Quadruple COP to reduce input to 1 quarter & so on. Diminished returns. Also if it requires enhancements such as the Mouse, The Product price increases.
      Additional Diminishing returns. You also have to change the Charge for the mouse when you replenish the charge for the Cat. More Cost.

      So at present we see a limit building up (Achilles heel). This could change in the future but as now it has limits. You could end up with Clean, Plentiful Energy, But No longer Cheap.

      NOTE that I think the E-cat is real, works & will eventually make it to market. Note Also that I’m not as enthusiastic as many others here because the E-cat just replaces Fossil fuels at a much cheaper cost. BUT-Hardware for conversion to useable quantities of electricity is still needed & it at present is not cheap. We’ll need better cheaper technics for this. More Miracles for the E-cat to be what everyone wants. So- We Wait.

  • http://keepusfree.blogspot.com Matt DeMinico

    If it works as expected, it’s really only an engineering problem at that point.

    And if the COP of 6 (was it?) is the “ultra-conservative” running performance mode, but it’s been run at a COP of 100 in limited tests, I have to imagine there will be a “tweaking” community (much like people who overclock their computers) out there that will run systems at safe COP’s of 10, 15, 20…

    Plus I think someone will be able to do developmental work to get industrial systems safely running at higher COPs for extended periods of time.

  • http://brak piosk

    Hi all LENR beliwers.
    I had bad dreams about humans kind lately.
    It was connected to LENR. When all people turned to LENR power and use it for ages.
    Sudently it stoped working and we went back to Stone Age.
    It is very strange to me that eksperiments conducted by Flaishman and Ponds couldn’t be confirmed for so many years.
    What if…
    … cold fussion depend on kind of factor which was absent in our area in Space .
    What if our Solar System just entered zone in space where that factor is present.
    (There were very advanced civiliztions on Earth in past. All of them perished.)
    Acording to movie I seen on Youtoube whole Solar System is going to (or just entered) Photon Belt.

    I know it is New Age pseudo Science. Still can we be sure there aren’t single seed of trueth in it?

    That just bad dream

    • Roger Bird

      piosk, I had the same thought that we are entering a different density of dark matter or dark energy or something like that. But, notice that the change is very gradual, and if this is the case, then leaving said region would also be very gradual. And there would still be enough of the old technology such that we could adapt to the change. And remember that the change would not necessarily be going back to fossil fuels. It might even be a change to something even better.

      And going back to the paleolithic period might not be such a bad idea.

      You need to DEVELOP more faith in Life or God or yourself or whatever you want to call IT. Bad dreams happen. Why, just the other night I dreamed that Kim Kardashian came to my door with her check book and a fountain pen and offered me her wealth and her body. I let her in and she turned into a patho-skeptic nerd and started giving me a hard time about going to LENR sites and being a LENR believer. It was awful. I woke up in a cold sweat.

  • Mauzen

    Small correction: Its not 1500 1GW plants – that would be 1.5 Terrawatts – but 15000

    • Alex

      32 billion hot E cats, would need a robotic line to build robotics lines which then built the hotEcats.

      • Alex

        better off building compact 1 GB units to power each city.

      • Roger Bird

        So, let’s see. There are 7 billion people on Earth. Does this mean that each person, on average, is going to need 4.57 E-Cats. That does seem like quite a lot. I will only need 2. One for my house and one for my car. Iggy can have my other 2.57 E-Cats.

        • Jerusalamb

          If the E-CAT is scaled up at what point would it cease to be a LENR device?

  • Roger Bird

    It is probable in my mind that LENR “cells” will become as large as hydro-electric turbines are now. I think that we are thinking small because we are in the Wright Bros. garage and we know that they are going to succeed, but that is all.

  • Bård Havre

    Calculations of this sort is as interesting as discussions on how many angels can dance on a pinhead. The complexity of the E-cat is on the level of a Ac-unit. Making tens of millions of these a year, or even months is a trivial task, and can be set up ias fast as the market demands.
    This level of technology is in the 10-20$ range pr. kilo,like other household items,so the impact on the world economic capacity is minimal. Complex products like cellphones, cameras, dishwashers, refrigerators, TVs are all made in huge numbers each year, there is nothing special about the E-cat and its siblings.Prepare for a tsunami.

    • http://www.american-reporter.com Joe Shea

      1kW modules? I wonder how large those are compared to the 10kW? I wonder how much more quicxkly they can be constructed? And I wonder why he doesn’t work with 100kW modules, so he’d only need 10 per E Cat?

      • Alex

        Not every household uses 10kW. If you could sell a system fully upgrade-able like cartridges or motorcycle batteries, instead of a larger investment like the size of a refrigerator or a water heater would you.

  • Igor

    According to IEA worldwide TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY was about 12.7 billion TOE (tonne of oil equivalent) in 2010 and TOE is about 42GJ (Gigajoules). However, single 1KW hot-cat can produce about 30GJ per year (i.e. 1.5-2 1KW Hotcats will replace a tonne of oil/year!) about 20 billion of 1KW hot cats are needed to replace ALL sources of energy currently in use for all purposes (including transportation, manufacturing etc, etc.)
    However, currently Hotcats (assuming they do exist – I sure hope so) can only be used for a limited set of applications (heating and hopefully soon also electricity generation) which probably account for under 25% of that total i.e. total worldwide demand is currently 5 billion 1KW Hotcats (not per year – overall).
    Assuming 10 year transition period that’s about 500 million units/year. Hotcat appears to be a rather simple device (again, if it exists) – so if it’s possible to produce that many cell phones per year,production is a big but solvable problem (which will create a lot of jobs at different skill levels even if automated factories will be used).

  • Jjaroslav

    The large plant scenario neglects the economics of maintaining the energy infrastructure….not a small number. The decentralization of power will have huge incentives..and also forces that will try to protect the system as it is.
    Speaking personally, if I had the chance I would disconnect tomorrow, but I don’t expect that to happen for at .east five years….
    While this is the English speaking version I would be curious to know what is happening in China on this topic. As they grow their infrastructure the advantages of decentralized energy supply would be massive for their economies..

    • Roger Bird

      Jjaroslav, I agree 100%. Except, why are you waiting until tomorrow to disconnect? I would be working on it as soon as I click “Shut Down” on my computer.

  • Omega Z

    Admin- Frank

    I Suspect the numbers will be higher then you’ve posted. I had a rough calculation at one time but misplaced it. It would be wrong anyway. It only figured Electric in existence. Also, If Rossi increases COP then all numbers are just a Guess.

    Thoughts: Bring the World up to speed. Calculate at least X4
    Also Doesn’t include:
    Vehicles or any other transportation- Shipping/Aircraft, Desalinization, Deicing Walkways, & any number of other new Demands that we haven’t considered.

    By 2050, the World may require 100 Tera-watts of generating Capacity.

  • robyn wyrick

    DEEP BREATH – calm. Today is April 24th.

    I know Rossi has stated that he has no control over the publication of the 3rd Party results. But I am in the deep, calming breath zone.

    I think the story Rossi spins is, ultimately, the most credible narrative for what is happening. But having read and watched now for over a year (not nearly as much as some watchers on this site) I am so raw about today being April 24th.

    Last year, the 3rd Party results were going to be published in a major scientific journal. Then we got the story of reviewers requiring a 2nd and then this year a 3rd re-test and re-measurement.

    And that would be fine, were it not for the suggestion – by Rossi – that confirmation is always just around the corner. If he would just say, “expect nothing until 2036,” I could chill out properly.

    So that’s my self-talk, and my public statement: “don’t expect anything at all for at least several more years.”

    But inside, I don’t believe that timetable. Inside I believe Rossi and Celani, and the rest, are onto something huge, and world changing. So I end up thinking “any day now….”

    And so I sit here on April 24th, taking deep breaths, burning like the photo of a Hot-Cat, waiting for *ANY* public, independent verification of Rossi’s claims.

    If there are any of the 3rd Party reviewers reading this: I’m willing to sign an NDA to get an advanced copy.

    Peace and patience, Robyn

    • Roger Bird

      Robyn, you are very cute. I am also very anxious about what is coming next. My wife works with neurologically damaged teenagers, and my prime suspect is pollution. You don’t have to go to West Africa to find serious suffering. It is right here in the modernized world. So I look forward to LENR with extremely keen anticipation. It seems so UNLIKELY, yet the evidence points to it being REAL. And we wait.

    • Alex

      If I was in position of Mr. Rossy I would be interested in delaying the report publication as long as possible. Assuming that his team already has more orders than they can deliver. Once they start delivery they will have 100 times more orders. Publication at this time will only provoke competitors for stealing IP.

  • julius

    All these calculations are irrelevants, because once the large public will be aware that there is a working cold fusion plant somewhere, all the game change.

    It’s like internet, the number of new connected people is growing every years, I mean the growing is actually accelerating.

    This how you think your calculation to be relevant, if I may.

    In 1996, the best expert scientists on DNA said that it would take 3 to 5 centuries to decode everything, and they were the most optimistics, but now we are in 2013, and we know what happened, it has been fully decoded in 2003.

    So what was wrong with these guys ? what happened ? How could they’ve been SOOooo wrong ?
    They had a lack of imagination and awareness, they were experts in their domain, right , but had no understanding on how the world work, about progress, they didn’t see electronic coming to the rescue of decoding all this.
    That’s why I’m distrustful when it comes to listen at experts vision of the futur.

    You have to be aware to every innovations to be able to see a glimpse of what the futur is made, Immagine the things you had to know to had been able to see what internet would become before it ever existed, and more to this, how it changed society, who saw that coming ? surely not DNA experts back from 1996 🙂

    Informations exchanges are going faster and faster everyday on earth, then You have to take account of all this to make your calculation, wich is nearly impossible.

    Did you see this info about a company building a fusion reactor, it says that nasa gave them 600000$ and they say they’ll be able travel to mars in only 30 days, and this is supposed to be available in 2020, but bear in mind that this will come before that and in much less than 30 days.

    Those are my personal beliefs 🙂 based on what I observed since I’m on earth.

    • Roger Bird

      julius, I think that you may be right. We have no idea where this going and what is going to happen. People watching the Wright Brothers tinkering in their bicycle shop could never have imagined the SR-71 Blackbird. People and even scientists didn’t even believe in manned heavier than air flight EVEN WHEN THEY WERE LOOKING AT IT IN DAYTON, OHIO.

    • Omega Z

      julius

      What they didn’t count on when decoding the human genome was that it was far less complex then they could imagine.

      Humans rather then being one of the Most Complex turned out to be quit simple. In fact, Humans seem to be at the low end of the Scale.

      • Julius

        I agree with you.
        Every single thing get less complex once you understand them, it’s a kind of axiom trought ages 🙂

  • NJT

    If the home e-cat is somehow approved and have the capability to also do electrical generation, then all these 15,000 1KW plants would never need to be built. This would truly be a world changing device and return “power to the people” (pun intended). So I am a dreamer – yes?

    • Roger Bird

      We are all dreamers, or imaginers, but like Einstein, our imaginations are firmly anchored to the fact that LENR is real.

      • NJT

        Yes, thank you Roger…

        • Omega Z

          NJT

          In home use will require Far more. Everyone forgets to figure peek demand use. Utilities can average out demand requiring far fewer E-cats per person.

          Just a quick Example- My 50 Amp welder would require a peek of around 12Kw. Figure 1/3 heat to Electric conversion- Throw in the Energy to run the E-cat & were looking at around 6 10Kw Cats. More if I run anything else at home at the same time.

          Alternative would be a Large battery pack array in my basement.

          • Roger Bird

            Dang! (gentle and loving sarcasm), I forgot about my 50 amp welding machine that I use just about every day. Concerns over peak demand apply perhaps even more to the grid than to decentralized power production in each household. I know what I will need (and 50 amps for a welding machine won’t be one of them), so I can easily buy enough E-Cats or Hyperions to cover my needs. But if we all depend upon the grid, there are still going to be exceeding hot days, and there are still places now that have brown-outs and even black-outs. In the Philippines in 1989 it was SOP.

    • Jim Beaux

      In the unlikely even the ecat is for real, and if its output is heat, then a homeowner would have to invest in a device – steam engine, stirling engine – something that would turn a generator which would supply his electricity.

      It seems like it would be a lot more efficient to have central ecats for electricity than individual ones; so the electric plants will remain; maybe the long-distance transfer of electricity won’t be needed and every city will supply its own power – no need for pylons to transfer power from some distant source.

      For heating it would be a different story.

      But what am I talking about? Rossi is a liar or crazy.

      • Roger Bird

        Jim, I take it that you are new around here. In here, you are surrounded by skeptics and some pretty heavy hitters intellectually. You haven’t looked at the evidence. You might start here: http://www.lenrnews.eu/evidences-that-lenr-is-real-beyond-any-reasonable-doubt/

        I don’t believe in free energy. I am neutral about Bigfoot. I disbelieve in outer space guys in UFOs. But I think for myself. You might also try doing that and you might find yourself becoming a believer. I am an 85% believer in Rossi.

      • NJT

        -10 and your out-a here – I am obviously a confirmed believer (99%) after following all the (LENR, cold Fusion) evidence since 1989. Perhaps you need to do a little REAL research yourself?

  • Bernie Koppenhofer

    Admin said, and I agree, “there would be a tremendous amount of work required to have the E-Cat proliferate to a point where it would become a dominant source of energy” that is why Rossi keeps saying there will be plenty of room for the integration of all sources of power production.

  • http://www.nickelpower.org Bruce Fast

    There are two considerations that need to be considered.

    First, the first model of a new technology is usually very much outdone by later models. IE, the e-cat as Rossi eventually releases will be seen as a bulky, inefficient relic in just a few years.

    Second, once the world realizes that this technology exists, and has the power to produce a new paradigm, the development energy that will be put in will be shocking. When all of the production power of China and India focus on this little problem, we’ll have super-e-cats popping out like candy.

    credo, “the real question is whether it ultimately turns into 0%, 5%, or 50% of the total solution.” Credo, you are right that not all power will be replaced by LENR, but LENR is destined to become the new “primary” source. Your “turns into” chart should begin at 50%, and end at 95%.

  • credo

    it is an error to assume that any one type of power generation is right for all applications and circumstances. No matter how successful the e-cat is, it will remain only player among many even if it is cheaper than everything else.

    the real question is whether it ultimately turns into 0%, 5%, or 50% of the total solution. Until we see it proven out and we learn the pluses and minuses (which all technologies have), it is impossible to predict. But I am hopeful.

    • http://deadstickarizona-zedshort.blogspot.com/ Zedshort

      “No matter how successful the e-cat is, it will remain only player among many even if it is cheaper than everything else.”

      You obviously know nothing of economics.

  • lenrdawn

    The world’s energy requirements will never be met by Mr. Rossi building zillions of tiny 1kW units. At some point the technology will have to be scaled up. Whatever he has now (if he has anything at all) can only be considered experimental. When the Wright brothers first took off from the beach, nobody seriously started calculating how many Wright Flyer One and pilots it would take to substitute transatlantic sea travel and we shouldn’t worry about that sort of thing either. If the technology works, there will much better ways of using it than whatever there is today in a lab somewhere and developing them will be a mere engineering challenge for the sort of people and companies that build gas or coal or fission power-plants today.

    • Roger Bird

      lenrdawn, exactly right on.

  • Jimr

    I also believe that IF the 10kw device is perfected it will be improved to a 100kw and tp a 1 meg device within a reasonably short time. (A few years)

  • MWerner

    Sorry, 15TW / 1GW = 15,000 Plants. Or 32Billion 1KW units!
    I suspect that in the time that it takes to build 32Billion of anything some group will come up with a way to make units of greater than 10KW each.

  • Jimr

    I think it would take 15,000 plants.

    • Jimr

      I also believe that IF the 10kw device is perfected it will be improved to a 100kw and tp a 1 meg device within a reasonably short time. (A few years)

    • daniel maris

      Yes. 15000. And that in itself, explains why it ain’t gonna happen that quickly. Supposing a 1GW device sold for $500million,the total cost of replacing the planet’s generating capacity would be $7,500 billion, or just about the entire GDP of China. Replacement would be spread over decades, particularly as we waited for existing contracts to run out.

      • Chris the 2nd

        You can also expect each plant to take several years to build as well.

      • Iggy Dalrymple

        China is where the need is greatest because of their growth and horrible pollution, but China is the least trustworthy customer.

        • Roger Bird

          Iggy, that’s racist.
          .
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          .
          .
          .
          .
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          (:->)

          • Greg P

            There are only two types of people. Bigots and deniers.

            Nothing wrong with acknowledging that someone is a racist, you say it like it is an evil trait. Everyone is a bigot, it is just that many are dilusional to pretend in this politically correct world that they are not.

            • Roger Bird

              Greg, Iggy and I are long time Internet friends. He understands the joke.

              As to your statement, you are merely projecting upon others as you yourself are. It is true that so many libs are repressing their own discomfort / unfamiliarity / dislike / generalizing of people of other races and ethnicities. But there are people who have risen above this in the general and in the specific; just ask my brown skinned wife and my tan skinned children.

              A bigot hates people. I tend to see generalities first, but I hate no one, even you, who I think is filled with hatred. It is nice that you accept it, but know that not everyone is like you. But I reiterate, so many libs drive me crazy when they see in me hatred when all I am doing is thinking in generalities. They are also projecting their repressed distance and unfamiliarity from someone of another race or ethnicity on to me when they do that.

  • Chris the 2nd

    You also have to wait for existing power plants to use up their lifespan.

    So it’s not like you are in a massive rush to replace all power plants at once, it will be a steady process as plants go offline. Economics will be the limiting factor rather than production speed I should think.

    And also, if this technology follows Moores law (and considering it’s not well understood if it becomes mainstream it could) 1kw per module is just the beginning anyway.