Buy, Sell, Hold — Which Industries Will Prosper or Decline in an LENR World?

Here’s a mental exercise for E-Cat World readers and a chance for some creative thinking. Let’s assume for a moment that at some future point a working, useful LENR technology finds its way into the marketplace and begins to be used in the real world. As has been mentioned many times, such a breakthrough could have a profound impact on the way our world works — particularly in the world of business. So here is the question I’m throwing out today — What are the industries that will be positively affected by such a development, and what are the ones that will suffer? How about industries that may not be affected one way or another? Anoter related question is what will businesses need to do in order to remain viable in an LENR world?

Creative thinking welcome here — maybe seemingly obvious answers may not, upon analysis, hold up. For example, could LENR be a real boon for oil companies if it provides cheap energy for exploration, extraction and refining purposes. At this point there are no right or wrong answers, of course — all just speculation.

If you have any thoughts on these questions, just post them below!

  • Robyn

    LENR technology is just one of several revolutionary technologies that will transform the whole world in the next 30 years.

    These technologies are converging so quickly that it is going to be hard to consider the separate.

    – * graphene materials
    – * room-temperature super conductors
    – * super anti-friction materials
    – * carbon nano-fiber technologies
    – * google-car (and other A.I. cars)
    – * self assembling/ self replicating nanobots
    – * robotics in manufacturing and assembly
    – * advanced solar energy collection
    – * bio-tech — in almost everything
    – * A.I. — again, in almost everything
    – * 3D printing in everything from:
    – * * metals
    – * * plastics
    – * * and of course human organs

    So, while LENR is an astonishing development in human history, it is just one of several. The Future Shock we read about 40 years ago is just starting to occur.

    So, what should we invest in? Heck, I don’t know.

    My question is, what will an economy look like when industry has no requirement for human workers?

  • Ol’ Bab

    A new paradigm for industrial design…

    For a hundred (or two) years design has dealt with the 3-legged stool of:
    Design cost
    Build cost
    Run cost.
    These are balanced as possible to maximize profit, or maybe (in some better world) to minimize total cost of ownership.

    Soon the cost to run will drop dramatically, especially where that is dominated now by energy cost. (The cost to build will drop also, depending on the energy needed for fabrication. but less dramatically). This will shift the way engineering is done in interesting ways.

    For example, energy efficiency, which is really important now, will be dropped almost completely in favor of lower first-cost, bigger size, and/or brute force.

    Just think: muscle cars will come back, big as trucks, and styled without regard to aerodynamics.

    Just a thought guys
    Ol’ Bab, who was an engineer…

    • Omega Z

      Ol’ Bab

      I think it will be a mixed bag. It’ll come down to individuals priorities.

      As an example, We obtained a home that had an antiquated heating/cooling system. First priority was a high efficiency system. 50% reduction in heating/cooling costs. The next step is Efficient insulation. 2 reasons. 1 is Additional cost savings of about 50% & the 2nd is hot/cold spots. Insulation will eliminate this. It’s a comfort thing.

      These circumstances will still be around & bruit force doesn’t always apply. Transportation costs will be cheaper but bigger vehicles cost more. It depends on where a persons priorities are.

      Also, Energy is just the current major problem we face. Many others await that are just as daunting. But I believe LENR will make them easier to overcome & deal with. Such as unaffordable solution’s due to energy costs becomes affordable. Desalination comes to mind. There’s many more…

      Also, LENR is cheaper. It’s not free. If people can situate themselves where they only require 1 or 2 devices or a single more flexible device verses 10, they will. It will ultimately come down to the Individual. It will be pretty much as it is today.

      The saying, “The more things change, The more they stay the same”, Has some truth to it.

      Military’s may scale down. Wars will become less inevitable & less common, But, lets face it.

      There’s Some Idiot out there right now with dreams of grandeur of being the Ruler of the World…

      Hopefully in time LENR will help usher in a new era where these Idiots can’t gain followers & become an insignificant nuisance to society. (Hitler came to power because of an economically distraught Nation).

  • Anonymole

    Minimum time line for 50% transition from fossil fuels to NFE: 20 years. Nothing will change for decades.

    Industry will march slowly on just as it has. Transportation will adopt only new modes. Freighters, trains, airplanes, will never convert. New versions will have to be built.

    Electricity gen will be the first industry to switch but will take 10+ years to convert. 50 years for full conversion.

    By 2100 we should have a new world. Of course none of us will live to see it.

    • Omega Z

      @ Anonymole

      Although I’ve trumpeted that LENR technology will take several decades to phase in, I believe your time line takes it to far.

      My reasoning is based on economic realities & some based on the technologies present state. The latter being in flux depending on changing circumstances. (Sudden technical jumps.)

      According to Rossi’s recent statements on the new core design, there has already been a major gain. Above 600`C heat that’s stable within an acceptable & required narrow plus or minus range for applicable use.

      A single core at 10Kwh instead of 3. May even scale to 20Kwh in a single core. That’s a major scale reduction in size. 1 core replaces 3 possibly 6 cores. The original would have been feasible in new Ships/freighters designed for it. The new cores make it easily retrofitted. Fuel consumption (1000’s gph) per vessel make it economical to retrofit. Trains will fall into the same category. Planes are a totally different story & make take decades, as use of LENR are still just ideas being floated around.

      If the conventional Electric grid is retained, they would all be replaced within 30 years or less. Based on the fact they have a 40 to 50 year life cycle & costs drastically rise to achieve this at the 25 year point. It makes economic sense to replace them when it’s cheaper then maintaining the old. Also no one will spend 5 billion for a new fossil powered plant if 1 billion in LENR tech will do the job.

      There is so many things in play that it’s all a guessing game. As scale increases costs go down & vice/verse. My point. Why buy a LENR/electric car if gasoline drops to a dollar or less after most people have already switched. Because the price of gas will eventually rise to maintain it’s infrastructure to service the few. It’s all economic.

      Home electric production verses grid. LENR appears to have a 30 year life cycle. Turbines on the other hand is Far shorter. Maintaining them may be cost prohibitive at an individual scale. A Less centralized grid operation would be more sensible. LENR appears to be cheap. Turbines aren’t at this time.

      Thermal Electric on the other hand may change this. Solid state systems that are highly efficient with projected 30 year life cycles may come to market. But again, what will they cost.

      It’s all economics. If a person wants to be Off The Grid, Go for it. The technology is available NOW without LENR. However, If your on these sites posting, you probably can’t afford to. Economics…

      • Anonymole

        30, 50, 75, it’s all pure speculation. But one thing I do know for certain – we’re all wrong. We’re like Bradbury or Clarke predicting large scale space habitation: 50 years? 200? 500? No one knows. The only redeeming facet of this whole thing is that it’s entertaining to dream, wild crazy dreaming, but dreaming none-the-less.

      • http://www.lenrforum.eu/ Alain

        given the fact that the amortized cos of electricity could go about 10 time less old nuke or coal, some actors might choose to drop power-plant that are not yet obsolete.

        if the 30 years to replace all power-plants look logic, I expect more than 10% in 5 years, and more than half in 10 years.

        for cars it might be faster for total replacement (10 years), but maybe individual will wait 10 years for their smoky cars to die, because they cannot afford a loan to buy an expensive free-fuel car…

        a way to accelerate could be to make big loan program to make people/companies reimburse their LENR reactor/car with the old oil bill.

        for plane, I expect all to be much slower because of safety and need to have a long history. however LENR+gaz/coal to Fuel might be the best transition solution.

        as usual thing can get much faster and slower than rational, depending on financial and cultural reasons.

        about the grid, I feel that at short term il will not change much. with time it will ease islands to be autonomous, and will kill long lines to be replaces by local power station costing less than the line, and producing as much as the line transport.

        with LENR insvesment and maintenance cost are dominant, and fuel is negligible. that is the only paradigm change.
        else this energy is very simple and compatible with existing infrastructure.

        at most it will develop the technology of small steam turbine for vehicles.

        CHP looks a good idea, but I’m afraid it is useless because too expensive for the small gain.
        after all it is a technology adapted to the old paradigm of saving fuel and increasing efficiency, while LENR push to reduce investment.
        it is better to have a cheap LENR furnace to heat home, and an efficient regional electricity power plant for the electricity.

        until recently I was thinking that smart grid and CHP would be the future, but now I’m convinced that local heat, and regional electricity are the best solution to save investment.

  • Distributed Intelligence

    Back to the core question: What will be the market impact of LENR making electricity cheap and abundant?

    Here’s my nickel’s worth:

    SHORTS:

    1. Obviously the shorts will be the dino-fuel industries and their distribution accessory companies. This statement doesn’t account for all the political shenanigans correlated with dino-fuel wars and intrigues. The markets associated with oil-empire building will probably also be adjusted down as their reason to exist expires.

    2. Transportation companies that *do not adopt* LENR technology or electric technology.

    3. Utilities that *do not adopt* LENR.

    4. State-owned industries that relied upon heavy subsidies from dino-fuel sales. Do you hear me, Saudi Arabia? Want to see how quickly the desert can advance once checks start to bounce?

    GROWTH:

    1. LENR producers and their distributors (obviously)

    2. Companies that produce vehicles that utilize LENR power sources.

    3. Companies that retrofit or construct LENR power distribution systems, both small scale and large.

    4. Industries and activities that were considered unprofitable or impossible at 20th century power costs and availabilities.

    Unlike some others, I don’t see a big jump in nickel prices if LENR takes off. Nickel is largely produced in Canada these days, but the Rossi LENR process doesn’t use a lot of it. It may become more expensive, but I’m not sure the nickel market could be monopolized like the oil market could be.

    On a side note, nickel is abundant in space in the form of asteroids. Strange bit of foreshadowing, isn’t it?

  • Dave From NJ

    Georgehants wrote in response to LENR on society: “Yes, there is an alternative to capitalism: Mondragon shows the way Why are we told a broken system that creates vast inequality is the only choice?”

    My Response: Communism becomes unstable for the same reasons capitalism fails. There will always be someone in the co-op who will mess it all up for whatever reason. Human nature is the problem that needs to be addresssed. If the bankers want to destroy the banking system nothing will stop them. The bankers have total control to destroy the value of their own currencies.

    However, the people of the world will eventually shrug off the devalued currency for something with value. Nobody wants to work for nothing forever. You can only oppressed the people for so long. Something will happen when the pain of not doing something becomes greater than the pain of doing something. I think we need to take lessons from how the casinos manage their money. Most of the cameras are pointed at the dealers for a reason.

    Georgehants wrote: “Not Communism not Capitalism but a new “ism” in line with productivity to give people a fair return for their labour and efforts and remove the obscene, hereditary, rich and powerful.
    Easy to say the things that don’t work, the clever thing is to suggest things that will work.”

    My Response: Again, it will all work well until someone in the co-op starts doing something that messes with the metaphysics of the “ism”. And then it will collapse like everything else.

    I think the good hearted people of the world need to get their story straight as to what it means to be humane. We need to use more subtle tactics to influence with our leaders and people in positions of authority. Otherwise, we will continue to see more false-flag terrorist attacks in order to preserve the status-quo. Or some other extreme heinous attacks against humanity.

    Here’s the problem with the governments of the world. It has nothing to do with the “system”. All the world’s problems have to do with people in power. The problem with power is it makes the people in power have contempt for the people under their influence. There is a point where the power-holder no longer respects people’s humanity (either out of fear or pity). Something clicks inside the power-holder’s head and the power-holder sees their subjects as sub-human animals. The golden rule no longer applies and “insects” are squashed in response to psychopathic emotions. The power-holder rationalizes their behavior based on the idea that the sub-human scum are not deserving of respect. Any respect given at all would mean the power-holder is no longer in power.

    This cycle of contempt by the power-holders gets repeated over and over again at every level of society. I pity the power-holder because the pressure created by all the responsibles combined with all the fears of not being successful, that is, losing their position of power, must be overwelming.

  • Omega Z

    What not to be invested in.

    #1 Cap & Trade-CO2credits. How do you like me now? AL.
    #2 Would be Coal Mining Rights.
    #3 Solar.
    #4 Wind Turbines.

    I think many of us take a narrow a view of things. Other then these 4, most will survive albeit smaller & several merging with fewer total players.

    Even Coal will survive, just much smaller. 10% of the Coal used in the U.S. has nothing to do with Electricity.

    The market will affect how fast things change. It will take much longer then many might think. If LENR comes to market tomorrow, things will change very little except for mood. Hope will rise. But time is required to train people, to build new plants & build E-cats or whatever LENR product is available. You wont buy a new LENR powered car just because it’s available. You’ll buy it when you have the cash.

    The pace will gradually pick up, but at some point it will level off, Because of the technology itself. Prices of certain products will drop. Buying a LENR powered car becomes less urgent when gasoline drops to a dollar a gallon.

    Because Natural Gas is already cheap in the U.S., The home E-cat Rossi proposes at this time isn’t cost effective for me. For others it will be a great investment. Individual circumstances will determine this. Propane, Oil, hot water, or Electric heat are more likely to be replaced sooner, But as the operating costs drop, Because others have converted over, people will only gradually replace these things as needed. When they Quit working.

    The Majority of the Coal fired plants & Nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing end of life & some have been given temporary extensions because replacement plants haven’t been built.

    These Utilities will most likely decentralize to some degree & be replaced by LENR systems. If at sometime in the future, Should individual electricity generation in the home evolve & proliferate, It will most likely be near the end of these systems life cycle. Most of the transition will be smoothed out.

    Several people posting here are aware of hurdles home produced electricity will face. The safety factor. The convenience factors, People want to be able to turn it on & forget it. That will be sometime away. There are other technologies being developed that would/could speed this up, but it all depends on what these new tech’s cost if & when they come to market.

    On Nuclear Plants, The U.S. is actually in a better situation compared to many countries as we haven’t built any new ones in decades. They are all coming to end of life cycle & Only 1 has recently been authorized. Several years will pass before this gets started & you can bet it will be put on permanent hold if a LENR device comes to market even if construction has started. Well maybe. Have to remember we have Idiots in charge.

  • Brad Arnold

    There could be many ways to prosper knowing that LENR is about to emerge, and consequencially energy prices are bound to go down (i.e. as opposed to what is conventional wisdom, which is energy prices will be going up, because demand for energy is estimated to increase 50% in the next two decades, while supply won’t grow at near that rate).

    My favorite is the Warren Buffet strategy of simply picking companies that are energy intensive and investing in them – this has the advantage of being safe, because those companies generally hold their value regardless.

    If you want to highly leverage your capital, sell short on energy contracts, where companies have signed long-term contracts to have energy furnished to them.

    The best strategy, but one I’ve tried and failed at, is to start a hedge fund based upon the premise that energy prices will be falling. Good luck trying to convince investors that LENR will change the world – perhaps you have better contacts of potential investors than I had…

    Or, you can just wait and benefit from lower energy prices as a consumer, and also benefit from a substancially improved economy via lower energy costs!

    • Dave From NJ

      RE: “best strategy, but one I’ve tried and failed at, is to start a hedge fund”

      I wish people would learn to play craps at a casino so they can finally understand the meaning of the word “hedge”. In craps, hedging your bets is no different than not betting at all. Don’t believe me, play craps at a casino and about 4 bets into the roll start making “dont-come” bets. Watch what happens. You make no money and you still lose for the most part but just not as much. How is that an “investment” strategy?

      Sorry, the whole concept of hedging is kind of insane in my opinion.

      • Anonymole

        Hedging is protection against black swan events.

        You’re SHORT 10 Crude Oil contracts. Price moves down but hits support, and a hurricane is approaching the Gulf. To protect your position, you buy CALL options, in case the price activity or the weather drives Crude unexpectedly up. Your long term strat is to see CL drop, but you want to CYA on short term events.

        Ergo – hedging.

  • http://deadstickarizona-zedshort.blogspot.com/ Zedshort

    Test

  • duecat

    Frank_ Thanks for the great topic. The responses have been fantastic. I would add that in the long term it would be construction that would be the sector benefiting the most. With domed, climate controlled communities becoming a viable option, there would/will be a move to colder climates and all the steel, glass and concrete that would entail. I know of some Snake River dams that need to come down too. The best immediate bet might be “phosphorus” miners. There is already pressure on supply and the added demand created by new farmland will push prices sky-high. Of course, mining costs will plummet with cheap energy. Copper will likely come down as high voltage power lines come down or are constructed at a reduced pace. Silver should sparkle as an indispensable metal in electronics.. thinking lner control boxes, and continued store of value. Some of the fears about taxes to make up for lost government revenue seem exaggerated. The amount of money saved by governments with dirt cheap energy would be enormous, not to mention the cuts in defense spending that would be available with elimination of the need to police the world. Some of concern over lost taxes seem exaggerated. The local and state taxes on energy seem modest compared with those on garbage and water utilities that would remain intact. The gas tax loss scenario has already started. With electric and hybrid autos already causing concern there is a move toward toll road taxes in some states. This would probably be more fair anyway as most road taxes go for new construction and maintenance. Exciting times!

    • duecat

      A quick apology,I was writing from a USA mindset while I know this is a worldwide forum.

  • Bernie Koppenhofer

    Repowering the world: ABB,GE and SI

    Desalination: TTEK, JEC, GE, SI

    Industries that will Prosper: Aluminum, Chemical

    Shorting: Coal, Oil, Oil Service, Solar, Wind, Pipe Lines

    Of course timing is all important. (:

    Please add or delete from this list.

  • Mr Ixlpx

    I don’t understand the comments to the effect that government and big business would “not permit” the economic development of LENR. Here are the key variable as I see them, along my confidence levels:
    1) it’s a real physical phenomena – 95%
    2) it can be made to work at all by scientists and entrepreneurs without major funding – 95%
    3) it will be irrefutably demonstrated to be capable of self-sustainability sometime in the next couple of years – 100%, if 1 and 2 are true
    4) it can be made efficient, small and powerful using sophisticated technology – 100%, if 1, 2 and 3 are true
    It these factors are valid then trying to suppress it would be like trying to suppress alcohol consumption. You can make the stuff in your bathtub. Or with LENR, if the factors above are valid, you should be able to make the stuff using 3D printing, a decent electronics e-catalog, and at worst some underground source of nano-metals. People will be putting it in ’54 Chevy truck shells out in back of their Mojave desert trailers. How is big business and government and going to suppress it, exactly? Internet intercepts and black helicopters? Media campaigns to frighten the public? Expensive lobbyist lunches? I’m not getting the mental model here…

    As far as what it will disrupt…how about everything that uses heat or electricity? But where generation gets replace or distributed, services will go up, and the existing utilities and energy companies may be best positioned to thrive in the new paradigm.