Rossi on Certification Process



Andrea Rossi today made a couple of comments on his site that indicate a level of confidence regarding the receipt of safety authorizations for his domestic E-Cat units:

“We are under a process of certification made by authorized entities: I am pretty sure they are making the certification respecting all the specific laws existing in the matter.”

“We already got the green light from all the competent Authorities, so far the certifications are in course.”

The safety certifications are going to be crucial in terms of getting the domestic E-Cats to market. Until the certifications are granted Rossi has said there will be no mass production of anything. He also mentioned that work on the production line continues, but there will likely be modifications made to it in response to any adjustments that the ‘authorities’ require: “the robotized line to produce the E-Cats is already in production . . . the programs of the robots will be adjusted as soon as we will have the requirements from the certificators”

A final comment from Rossi today in response to an admitted skeptic: “Conserve this comment of mine: if within 16 months we will not have in operation this factory, I will pay you pizza and bier.” That’s not much of a gamble, but at least there is a rough deadline we can look forward to.


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  • alex

    I read Dekaflion is going to start selling their units in Europe in 3 months. July could be a big month for the world to handle. Read for yourself…

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/forum/cold-fusion/51623?page=4#comments

  • Barry

    As far as the science being shut down in 1989, Pons and Fleischman didn’t stop at all. After the way they were treated in America they simply packed up and moved to France where the Japanese set them up with a 12 mil$ lab. At some point the Japanese stopped funding them. I wonder if they did because of a lack of progress. Here’s a good news story of their progress in 1994. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXaijlN1AKo
    It’s interesting, the “Cold Fusion” machine they were working on was producing 20 watts. The reporter seemed disappointed and Stanley Pons said it would take another 4 – 5 years to be producing 10 kilowatts. Pretty good prediction. The machine is so simple even a layman like myself can understand parts of it. I wish I could send back the words, “Powdered Nickel.”
    Can anyone tell me when powdered nickel came on the scene and who thought of it. I know as a powder it has a much larger surface area to interact with. I was surpised to learn, years ago, the water fiter under my sink, about the size of a can of coffee, has crushed charcoal with a surface area of over a acre. Is powdered metal the breakthrough that has put LENR back on the map?

    • alex

      If so, someone should be trying to test with powdered platinum, instead of nickel.

  • Roberto

    Lo dico in italiano… Stiamo a vedere. Abbiamo aspettato tanto, aspettiamo e vedremo.
    Tutto il resto non conta. Stiamo ai fatti. Se Rossi dice bene oppure no.

  • Roger Bird

    More hot air. Wake me when something real happens.

  • Pipmon

    I would be interested to know how many of the “commentators” on this site (or any other) have single-handedly set up commercial mass production of an innovative, conventional science defying, world changing product, with totally vertically integrated production and distribution, and of a product with absolutely no precedent?
    Please identify yourselves so that I may attach a bit more weight to your comments and “track record” of no project slippage from the initial plan. ;)

  • artefact

    and:

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/forum/cold-fusion/51623?page=4#comments

    I take that with care. They are rivals… :


    G’Day firefly,

    Defkalion told me when Mr. Rossi had the 1mw plant going, at one point, everyone ran out because it got unstable. He’s too worried about confidentiality and is a one-man-band. He keeps things too close. Defkalion couldn’t work with him because of it. Rossi needs some technical help, which would require letting his invention out-of-the-bag to a precious few scientists. He has REAL trouble shutting it down. Defkalion even has something like a fire extinguisher attached to ‘poison’ the reactants to kill it. They can just shut it down normally with a flick of the switch. Defkalion will constantly monitor the LENRs, even in your house to ensure their safety. Rossi has a LONG way to go.

    Regards,

    Woomera

  • artefact

    WOW

    ..Defkalion said..
    http://www.chrismartenson.com/forum/cold-fusion/51623?page=4#comments

    “They saw it light up like the sun and then it melted the glass. This just took a second or two.”


    G’Day, I was JUST in Athens and met with representatives of Defkalion. They told me that they were going to begin selling their LENR device this July 2012. I was shown their R&D model which just starts with a flick of the switch. It also turns off with a just a flick of the same switch. They have their model running at 250degc. They can get their LENR to run over 350degc (dry steam), but they need something more than the current fluid that they are using. Rossi has problem shutting down his E-CAT. Rossi is a “one-man-band” and Defkalion has 27 scientists.

    Several groups have come to see them including NASA. They have taken down their blog on their website to enable their 27 scientists to just concentrate on their work to finalize a commercial LENR. Each unit will have as many as five (5ea) LENRs, each running at 5kw. I went there to investigate possible investment. They only want BIG investors. They have MANY OEM (original equipment manufacturers) already on board internationally. They intend to manufacture 300,000 units in the first year. It will cost only 30 Euros/year to operate each LENR device

    They have all the European certificates. Everyone else in the world recognises the EU certificates, except the United States. Defkalion had decided the US is in the ‘too-hard-basket’ and won’t manufacture or sell to the US. The units will be monitored via mobile telephone or internet to insure their proper operation.

    I was told that they were trying to actually see what happens in their device with some glass with a melting point of 1500degc. They saw it light up like the sun and then it melted the glass. This just took a second or two. I was told what their working theory was, but they really don’t know what is going on. They have brought in several academics with a myraid of explanations.

    This looks like a real go’er. It will change the world. I’m sorry for not disclosing more. I was told specifics, but was asked to keep them confidential.

    These are exciting times. The whole world awaits. Life is about to change.

    Oh yes, I went to Greece, just to go island hopping for a week. I was on the 1st boat of the season. I would suggest May or September. DO NOT GO in August! The islands double in population in August and it’s TOO HOT and windy. Lovely place with lovely people!

    Regards, Woomera

    • dragon

      DOUBLE WOW!!! If this is true …
      1. JULY 2012
      2. 250-350degc
      3. They saw it light up like the sun….

  • Product Development Engineer

    Nothing about Rossi’s story of the 1 mill. factory stacks up.

    For starters, it is an “automated production line”, not “robotised” … at least, in all my time I have never heard any practicing prod. eng. refer to “robotised factories”. It is automation that makes these lines flow, robots are a bit part, sometimes … I wonder which prod. eng.s Rossi is working with who are talking abot “robotised factories”….

    The rest of the story about “tweaking robots” for design changes is far-fetched or unbelievably naive. Setting up for runs of 1 mill is not trivial, small changes can create warehouses full of bad product in short times as the line is ramped up to speed during commissioning … it’s a high-pressure, high-risk activity ramping up a factory outputting 3k appliance units every 24 hrs. You can’t stop and you can’t change mid-flight. You need to test run 24/7 for weeks at full capacity to prove/debug the line at the design throughput and tinkering with product design changes is a major production undertaking … not to mention the possible impact on product quality.

    Either Rossi has no clue or the people he’s working with have no clue and he’s ill-advised … just my professional opinion.

    • daniel maris

      The average automobile has thousands of parts – estimated somewhere between 5,000 and 30,000 (my quick google search suggests).

      How many parts will the Rossi E cat heater have? 50, 100, 200? It doesn’t look that complicated.

      So, I think that’s the first thing to say. If the product is genuine, production could be outsourced and the assembly line could be readied in a matter of months.

      I think it’s naive to believe Rossi will be ready to run at one million per annum from day one. I suspect he will just be getting one prodcution line ready and if that succeeds, it will be replicated.

      I agree you will need to test for several weeks, but all that is doable within a 16 month timeframe.

      I am glad he’s nailed his colours to the wall.

      • Production Development Engineer

        I’m also glad he has nailed his colours to the mast because I can now definitively view it as him being full of BS or wildly optimistic on the manufacturing… in some ways, for me, his claims of ramping up 1 mill. unit factory by the end of the year is more incredible than the claims of excess heat. Here’s a thought experiment to demonstrate.

        First, imagine how you could make 30 E-cats a day, i.e. think about sourcing/casting/maching/folding all necessary large parts, source/manufacture temp. sensors, press. sensors, wires, electronic controller boards, plastic knobs, assemble, test, package, etc. That is more than 1 per hour (24/7). Now you have to do that 100 times faster … think carefully about what that means …

        … you need to source and assemble 3000 temp. sensors, press. sensors, machined bodies, electronics, plastic bits, etc PER DAY. The die moulding, component design and production engineering (how to assemble in such quanties) for such large throughput factory takes at minimum 2 years (probably closer to 4) in my experience in the appliance industry, involving co-ordination of about 200-300 prod./design engineers (and at some point more engineers makes the project go slower, not faster so throwing more bodies at it does not help).

        Most people cannot comprehend the scale of such a factory … they just blithely say “a million a year” without thinking the logistics of such a statement through. The engineering needed to achieve such a feat is not trivial, but I repeat myself. E.g. think of the space a stack of 3000 microwave ovens in their packaged factory boxes occupies and you get some idea of what he is claiming since an E-cat will be very similar in size and component complexity … now that stack is meant to be produced 24/7/365 …

        Good luck to him, but everything I’ve seen him say suggests he has no clue what a 1 mill. per day plant would actually look like or how it needs to function. And I have personal experience with them, so draw your own conclusions ….

  • Stephen

    Can I have beer and pizza too?

    • Stephen

      … but please let’s do it like this: I take it now and if in 16months I am wrong I pay you back two :p

  • alexvs

    Once more Rossi’s sayings contribute to build the Ecat evangelium. Contradictions are always an important part of compiled revelations. So nothing new. Wait for the parussia.

  • sapain

    wonder how long the ecat will be in the ul labs, and how many units ul cooked in the testing.

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  • Mike Stevens

    you do not set out to build one million units if you are still testing product – Rossi has what he says COLD FUSION is Here Now with the eCat!

  • hydroman

    It will be secret beer from a secret brewery!
    with of course secret ingredients.
    I do like the idea of Rossi self heating Ecat pizzas!

  • sparks

    Just three months ago Rossi was saying the factory will be in-place and beginning mass production in Autumn of 2012. That would have been just 6 months from now. So he has just added ten (10) months to the timeline promised just 3 months ago. The originally advertised, aggressive production start in 2012 seemed inconceivable to me at the time, knowing what it takes to launch even a minimal production factory. Now, sure enough, he is offering new timelines, more than doubling the supposed schedule.

    Doesn’t this huge contradiction make you wonder, that he could be so far off from reality in his original projections? Does this sound like somebody who is experienced, realistic, and well thought out? Does this sound like somebody who is competent? Does this sound like somebody who is going to “come through” in the end? No, the man is naive, at best, and even that is enough to kill off any enterprise. As to further speculation as to credibility or honesty, I won’t go there — for now. Stay tuned.

    And will anybody really be surprised if there are further schedule slips? Count on it! This can go on and on….

    • Tom

      As far as I know, Rossi made no promises but estimates of a schedule. I believe he said best case scenario would be production starts in 2012. He might have been a tad optimistic in his original projections but so be it. I still think the Ecat is well ahead of any competition.

      • sparks

        No, he is changing his tune. He is radically altering his time-table. It took about a month before he started back-pedaling and qualifying his Autumn 2012 projections. If the e-cat is “so simple and low risk” as he constantly asserts, how can the schedule slip out so radically? How can you not see a problem here? More to the point, how much further can he slip the date before it starts you wondering? Would it be okay if he says, “Err, make that 2014″? 2015?? I have been projecting from the start that Rossi is having trouble stabilizing the process, that he underestimated how hard it would be to stabilize, and that we will not see a product for five years best case. So, if he slips all the way out to 2017, I will have hit the nail on the head back in November, 2011. I’ll bet you I turn out to be right.

        • Enrico

          I follow this story from the beginning, in the past monthes he always talk about 1MW e-cat boilers. Now he is talking about e-cat for houses. I have never read anywhere he promised to sell 10KW e-cat boilers for HOUSES from 2011, if you read it post the link, i am curious to read it

          • sparks

            No, the 1-million quantity e-cat production factory is what he has been talking about incessantly. How could you miss that? Find it yourself. It’s all over this site. Do the work.

        • Tom

          You can bet what you like but Rossi has made no concrete guarantees. I have no reason to think there is a problem with stability and no reason to think Rossi can’t adhere to tight deadlines. Sure, you might be right, but you are evaluating something you’ve not even seen or touched. I’ll bet you thought LENR/cold fusion was fake back in November, 2011 too.

          • sparks

            Nope, the phenomenon has been very well documented and investigated by the real scientific community for years. The problem has been stabilizing and controlling the process, not one of fundamental impossibility. There was no doubt there is validity to the basic phenomenon. My theme has been that Rossi is making wild claims about productization, not in step with observables regarding his activity.

    • Rene Vega

      The schedule sounds not that much different than most large software projects along with the somewhat high delivery variance.

      • sparks

        No, sorry, not in my company. My response to that would be, “Here are as many packing boxes as you need — be sure to check that you cleaned out all your desk drawers and didn’t forget any personal belongings.”

        • Short circuit

          So now we know Sparks doesn’t work in software development.

          • sparks

            Oh yes he does, very well, thank you.

        • Barry

          That’s what happened in 1989. People were too impatient for results and pulled the plug on Cold Fusion.

          • dayton

            The question was why was this science shutdown about 1989? I recall how enthused I was when CF was announced in 89-90 and I listened to everything I could. Reagan classified CF so no one could
            get money for research unless
            it was secret. Think about the G8 meeting at camp David.
            They will have to risk a total tax base collapse if the E-CAT gets out of the bag. pun intended.

    • admin

      Don’t think that Rossi said that production would start this Autumn. He said that would be the time that he would start taking firm orders from people who had pre-ordered. Winter 2012-13 has been the best case for starting production of the small e-cats.

      Pretty sure on this, but you might find Rossi quotes to the contrary in which case I will stand corrected.

      • sparks

        Wrong. Check it out.

      • Frank

        It’s your choice how to interpret Rossi’s ‘presumably put for sale in Autumn 2012′: ;-)

        Andrea Rossi
        January 5th, 2012 at 10:09 AM
        Dear Mario:
        When we will put for sale the 10 kW E-Cats ( presumably in Autumn 2012) the sales will be made worlwide by internet and by our licensees, the same day all over the world. Of course in the meantime we will have made all the necessary certifications.
        We are organizing not only the production, but also the logistics for the distribution with specialists.
        Warm Regards,
        Andrea Rossi

        • sparks

          (sigh) Here are the references, direct quotes from this website’s main postings in each case. Re-read the entire post in each case and you will see my point even more clearly than the short excerpts below show.
          1. Rossi’s Goal For 2012: 1 Million Units, Kill Competition (Dec 27, 2011)
          2. Why Rossi’s Fast Track Path to E-Cat Commercialization May Not be Impossible (Jan 6, 2012): “Andrea Rossi has been talking in a very ambitious way lately. His plans to launch production with a million E-Cats later this year have taken even staunch LENR and E-Cat supporters by surprise.”
          3. Rossi Provides New E-Cat Details (Jan 4, 2012): “Once again we are waiting until the Autumn to see if Andrea Rossi can deliver on his projections.”

          • admin

            Hi Sparks,

            Thanks for the references. I am still not interpreting any of Rossi’s comments to say that the E-Cats will hit the market in Autumn.

            Autumn is the time when Rossi has said he will release the full specifications (including pictures) of the home based e-cats and allow the people who have made pre-orders to put in firm orders. When I interviewed Rossi last month he said there would be demonstrations of the E-Cat model in various cities. All this, I understand, is contingent upon receiving safety authorizations.

            How long will it take from the time of putting in a firm order to the time of receipt of an E-Cat? Don’t know the answer to that, I expect it could be a number of weeks.

            When is Autumn? It’s probably intentionally vague — astronomically speaking this year it run from Saturday, September 22, 2012, and ends Thursday, December 20, 2012.

            Thanks for your contributions!

            Frank

          • sparks

            Time will tell, and relatively soon now. Granted, we are interpreting his statements differently. Regardless, I appreciate your running this site and keeping up on the latest on the LENR front. The news from the Martenson site has me more optimistic than what I’ve seen on the Rossi front. It would seem to me that you would need a full team of scientists, such as Defkalion has, rather than just one guy, to succeed in stabilizing and productizing something that has been as elusive as has LENR for so long.

    • Enrico

      It is a gamble… with such long deadline, may be he is not going to pay the pizza after all.

    • daniel maris

      We had politicians and bankers failing to predict the recent recession. Our Bank of England regularly gets its forecasts wrong.

      Rossi never said it would be ready early Autumn and pretty quickly clarified it was 12 months from the end of 2011 at the earliest or 18 months at the outside. So his original final deadline was June 2013. He’s effectively expanded that to August 2013 with his latest pronouncement. But that is his final say on the matter, I think.

      I’ve no idea if he will “come through”. If we have no better indications that something real is happening by August of this year, then I think I would have serious doubts.

  • Barry

    I know in this day and age we all want everthing yesterday, but if he is doing what he says he is doing it is a major undertaking. I wish more people would give the guy a break. He might just end up changing the world.

  • Lu

    Well it went from 18 months to 16 months in one month for the maximum delivery time so I guess that is progress. Earliest for first delivery will be next winter so worst case is March 2013-Sept 2013 give or take a month.

    But he will be finalizing orders in Autumn. As I understand it he already has “first year production covered.” Whether this means 1 million units or just the last quarter’s worth of 2013 (250,000) or somewhere in between, it is not clear.

    My question is will Rossi be demonstrating the finished E-Cat product sometime before Autumn when he starts taking orders (and presumably $) and who in their right minds will put money down for a unverified product that is not only revolutionary but not going to be delivered for up to almost another year? That’s not how consumer market works!

  • http://deadstickarizona-zedshort.blogspot.com/ Zedshort

    I would post the following suggestion/challenge to the good Dr. Rossi, but I have been banned from his site for asking a pointed question. If he is not in production of E-Cats by June 2013 he should send 12 oz X 24 case of Guinness stout or less to every person who posted as question to his site prior to the posting of this challenge. Beer or die!

  • Andrew Macleod

    Lol, Rossi forgot to mention that the pizza and beer will be handed out in his factory……if you can find it.

    • http://deadstickarizona-zedshort.blogspot.com/ Zedshort

      What do you do for a “living?”

  • http://martin.ankerl.com/ martinus

    Looking forward to eCat, or pizza!