The Long Wait

It’s not difficult to notice that the longer time passes without E-Cats appearing in the real world, the less credulity many people give to the reality of Andrea Rossi’s invention — that also goes for Defkalion GT and their Hyperions.

One of the strange things about this whole story is that news about the energy catalyzer technology was released over a year ago (apparently at the insistence of Sergio Focardi, Andrea Rossi’s collaborator), long before there was any chance of a commercial application being available. News of a technology like the E-Cat, which has such an obvious appeal to a world full of energy problems, was tantalizing, but also frustrating to people who wanted to know everything about it as soon as possible. Since the initial news conference and subsequent demonstrations the invention has not yet been observed and tested in a setting outside the control of its inventors, and the long wait continues.

It’s not surprising that some people are giving up on the possibility of this technology being real. We live in a world where news cycles span days, and it seems that the E-Cat story is going to run for months and years before it comes to a conclusion. Unless substantial news comes along there will probably be more doubting commentary on the Internet, and a drop-off in interest. It seems that Rossi himself is somewhat in a waiting mode, since he says he is not going to go into production of his home-based E-Cat units until safety certifications are granted from Underwriters Laboratories.

But in the final analysis, what people say or think will have little impact on the work that Rossi and others are doing if he indeed has what he says he has. Rossi will probably be happy if people lose interest — it will give him more of an opportunity to work in peace.

I still think that this is very interesting story (For the record I am a believer that the tech is real) and I intend to continue to follow developments, and post about things I find interesting here. Certainly I would like to see E-Cat technology on the market as soon as possible, but I think that realistically we are going to have to wait a while for all the necessary things to fall into place that will allow mass production to take place. I suppose it is conceivable that safety certification by UL could be denied — which would require a major rethink by Rossi.

So the long wait continues — and people will make of the wait what they will.

  • Peter Hunt

    I think you overlook the transnational aspects of this technology. The Chinese are working, as are the Japanese and Russians and Koreans along with the Indians.

    In short no matter what the US does the international community is clearly interested, and this puppy is out of reach of transnational oil.

    DoD and DoE are both aware of the game as is NASA. DoE is in political paralaysis and DOD taken their efforts “black” but Norway( statoil)and GB are both on to it as are France and Italy.

    The wait may be extended by $ and the disruptive interests but it can not be stopped or deferred by much. Look at Siemens and Nat. Instruments and the hidden efforts of GE et al.

    I am patient and full of hope. The train has left the station.

    Be well

    Peter

  • Stanley J Dunne

    I read with regret that Prof. Rossi is waiting for certification for the household Ecat.
    I suspect he will be kept waiting indefinitely by the powers that be to keep him from production.
    Bribery in this case to stop him, is almost certain.
    Is there no other way to get these on the market?

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  • skeptic

    To the writer/maintainer of this site: I appreciate the fact that you post your own point of view on the matter and that you’re yet open to leave criticism on your site – you even write about it every now and then.
    As you call yourself a believer, I am with you on the fact that we’re in for ‘the long wait’.
    As a skeptic, I fail to see any convincing reason not to show at least a pre-production e-cat, and I am seriously worried that ‘the long wait’ will just give Rossi lots of time to pull more surprises out of his hat.
    Time will tell although I am afraid that eventually Rossi will come up with nothing and this will all end in speculation about how ‘big oil’ has silenced Mr Rossi.
    We’ll see. I’ll bet you a beer we won’t be able to buy a working e-cat in 19 months.

    • admin

      Hi there,

      I understand the skepticism surrounding the E-Cat so I don’t mind skeptics posting here so long as they are not overly obnoxious (believing posts can be obnoxious too, btw)

      I have my reasons for believing based on a number of factors, I am sure you have your reasons for skepticism too that make sense to you. In the end it will be the facts that win out — however long we have to wait!

  • Beret Man

    I follow e-cat information from France.
    I’ve seen a video about “cold fusion”, by an actual french scientist, known to be serious.
    Biberian is the name of this scientist, employed by CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research.
    He was optimistic that from now on, nothing could prevent LENR to become a gift for humanity, because the information about LENR potentials has already been spread widely enough. This will result in more and more studies, research and findings.

  • hydroman

    Black Light Power investor/customers have been waiting
    20+ years!

    So

    Rossi has about 18 or so years before you should worry?

    The Long Wait!

  • Mike Stevens

    Lets Hope this does not turn out like Steorn where they slammed the door in the face of its members and in the end they had nothing at ALL to show for years of telling all they had ORBO.

  • ratsass

    Defkalion = my big fat Greek lying !!

  • edog

    Ok.. this needs sorting out and fast.

    This technology is akin to fire, you cant not share the secret.

    Rossi didnt discover LENR..

    There seems to be lots and lots of reactors out there.. he claims.. Im sure he will miss one.. dearly.

    Lets get form a posse people.

    • http://deadstickarizona-zedshort.blogspot.com/ Steve Robb

      I got ma six-shooter on ma hip and a bandanner on ma face, but I don’t got no horse. Do we need horses? How ’bout badges? I’ll call ma self Edgie, you’ll be Edog, who else is game? What’s the plan?

      I feel a funny story coming on.

      • http://deadstickarizona-zedshort.blogspot.com/ Steve Robb

        A suggested list of names:

        Side-Saddle-Bob: just a little different in tastes.

        Gimpy: Shot himself in the foot playing quick draw

        Too-Late-McGrew: always the last to laugh or catch on, never on time

        The-Proff: tendentious, very exacting to the point of being tedious, never gets to the point.

        One-Eyed-Pete: Has a rather cycloptic view of the world.

        Pretty-Boy: too busy combing his hair to accomplish anything.

        feel free to add to the list

  • http://radiosciencenews.org Richard Pollack

    I was under the impression that there was a fairly important Italian Television interview on the 19th, with many of the principal players, including the two scientists who will be presenting at the CERN colloquium in a few days. Did anybody see this? Why do I find no mention of it here? It’s not like there is “other” new information to talk about.

  • Pontus

    The energy companies have always stooped free energy technology. Since there is no money is selling free energy we will never see it until there is a complete system change. A total revolution of our entire market economic system of control would need to happen. Energy is a bigger market than all other products combined. A substantial portion of the price you pay for anything yo but is energy for production and transport. It would not be good business for them to reduce the cost of energy. They would not be able to maintain and grow their revenue.

    • Kim

      Free energy would stop most of the craziness
      of this world we see today

      Problem is the elite like to feed on the
      crazy emotions of people…

      They would lose their food supply

      Respect
      Kim

    • alex

      We ought to find the elite and lynch them. It’s not a revolution against the government, it’s just murder. I can live with that.

  • Tom Krieg

    Interesting comments, but…

    What country needs the most power now?
    What country doesn’t need to have UL certification?
    What country is not incumbered by international patents?
    What country has more engineers than any other country?
    What country can go from concept to implementation faster then any other country?
    What country has the most to gain from this technology?
    What country has a government that can make this happen without naysayers?
    What country can copy anything fast?

    It ain’t the US for sure.

    We should be championed this technology at every level.
    We should be doing everything to accelerate the process.

    But, we are not doing anything meaningful.

    Depressing. Doesn’t anybody care?

    • http://E-Catworld TomTom

      Until the Monarchy is dismantled, nobody will be able to care.

    • Robert Mockan

      Maybe we have been sold down the river?

    • alex

      Well the answer is China, and they would buy one, and reproduce it without care to patents or intellectual property. They also would not share it with the world. Can you see why Rossi stays in the land of Opportunity?

      • Tom Krieg

        The new IPad was announced a week ago Friday. Today they found 200,000 on the grey market from China.

        That is my point. Mr. Rossi is keeping most of what he is doing very confidential for a good reason.

  • Luca Salvarani

    The most incredible and unexplainable thing is that a lot of people, even the most educated ones, still strongly believe in crazy technologies that appeared many years or even DECADES ago such as photovoltaic that never worked and still don’t work at all (without its enormous subsidies it has no market and the FREE MARKET shows it pretty clear: if you don’t trust me look at so called “photovoltaic” companies’s bonds and expecially stocks traded on the market: and this is WITH subsidies! so figure out without them like in a real free market)…. While very very few trust Rossi and the absolutely serious scientists that have been approving his technology. I’m waiting in peace, and I’m sure that he will respect his timeline and will surprise us with a even more efficient product. It’s a matter of few months, maybe 1 year… and not DECADES like for the photovoltaic…I think Rossi deserves at least the same trust the people put in the photovoltaic.. AT LEAST! since he isn’t costing nothing to people: nobody is forced to fund him so nobody will lose nothing if he fails…. on the contrary photovoltaic has been costing and will cost us (even to who absolutely disapproves it like me) billions of dollars and euros: this is finance and math, not my opinion! Forza Rossi!

  • http://www.american-reporter.com Joe Shea

    There is always the possibility that powerful forces are trying to shade the e cat and the Hyperion devices into obscurity and darkness. That would help the oil companies and the military if it believes, based on its own SPAWAR work, that the technology is real and can provide a very significant chain-of-supply advantage by providing an inexhaustibl supply of fuel to forward units. How wonderful that would have been for Rommel! We haven’t begun to imagine what can happen if either Rossi’s or Mills’es or Defkalion’s dreams come true.
    I think there is a general sense that a dam is breaking, and from behind it will pour a cornucopia of N+H devices that can transform the world. Suppose that China got this technology and could write oil costs out of its budget. Their manufactuerers would be beside themselves with joy. But here in America, it seems we will give it to them before we will give it to us. Makes you believe there’s a traitor (a la Chu) in the works. I do hope I’m wrong, but that guy tried to kill Mills’ work back in the year 2000, according to a Village Voice article back then. Is he trying to kill LENR now?

    • Robert Mockan

      That is a possibility, but if so they are losing control. The recent demo at MIT had a COP of 14.12. And although Defkalion has been silent about how they are operating at high temperature, a literature search reveals they must be stabilizing the nanotube nickel structure, possibly by using carbon nanotube templates and forming the nickel nanotubes inside. Experiments years ago revealed that the low electron density less rigid metals like nickel nano-tubes suffer atom migration at elevated temperatures that reducethe lattice defects and turn nano-tubes into nano-rods. Both events would reduce LENR active sites. Rossi evidently is trying to overcome the instability problem by reducing temperature, that might have mislead people into thinking it was an instability leading to uncontrolled temperature increase. More likely he is not stabilizing the nano-structure of his catalyst, and higher temperatures are killing the thermal output over time. If so he needs to start putting more money into R&D.

  • http://www.american-reporter.com Joe Shea

    You expressed my own hope and fear precisely. Rossi’s main experience with the media has been negative, first with respect to all his 56 criminal trials for pollution and fraud, and after that for misgivings about the e-cat venture. I suspect he has a very healhty-seeming paranoia about the press. What he really needs is someone who is skilled at using the press to tell a story, and the willingness to become more open about his ongoing daily work. His press-resistant pathology is common among some people, but it needs a cure, not feeding.

    • http://www.nickelpower.org Bruce Fast

      Where do you get this “56 criminal trials” bit from?

      • http://www.american-reporter.com Joe Shea

        That’s from Krivit (New Energy Times), who has written extensively about his battle with the Italian courts over a means of converting trash to fuel that ended up leavuing behind a substantial amount of pollution.

        • http://www.centaurix.com Mattias Andersson

          Ah, the snake — how surprising.

        • RichyRoo

          My understanding was that the government retrospectively classified the waste products as ‘pollution’ and charged him after the fact.

      • Andrew Macleod

        Here’s a full write up on that story. From the snakes site.

        http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/RossiECat/RossiPetroldragonStory.shtml

        • http://deadstickarizona-zedshort.blogspot.com/ Steve Robb

          I’m surprised the snake keeps that up. I made a copy just in case.

  • http://www.centaurix.com Mattias Andersson

    I was also convinced that this technology must be real from quite early on — and to a certain degree I must confess that this belief was strengthened by my own subjective judgment of Andrea Rossi’s character — he doesn’t strike me as a person who would be either motivated or capable of organizing a fraud of this magnitude. Rather I think he has a very deep and genuine philosophical outlook on what he is doing (he is often citing philosophers from the antique in order to emphasize certain aspects of the development.)

    I would say that the time frames that have been set are rather ambitious — after all, this is a completely new kind of technology — there is really nothing in the history of human evolution that comes close to this. You need to remember that Rome wasn’t built in a day — great achievements require a lot of hard work.

    • H. Hansson

      Mr Rossi is certainly not the kind person that could pull of a fraud of this scale. Neither his he suitable to carry on with a project of this scale.

      The core of the delays and are probably his personalty and his firm believe that everybody wants to steal his invention. Open source as business model is not his way..

      • edog

        Speaking of stealing his “invention”

        Im still up for it, just need some partners in crime.

        Think of it this way.. when fire was first “invented” would you have been in my raiding party because that italian caveman over there wouldnt share??

        I wonder if you could BBQ on an ecat?

        • alex

          You only need 160 degrees Fahrenheit to cook meat through. E-cat puts out 200 Celsius. I’d say you could be the first one on a Superbowl commercial BBQ out the back o’ yer pick up on an E-Cat. You could call it the Barbeque-catalyzer or the B-cat.

  • John

    My question for all believers (and those on the fence – like me) is: how long would you wait for a saleable product from Rossi/Defkalion before you accept that it’s not going to happen?

    How many months or years?

    • Warthog

      Next October (2012).

      • http://deadstickarizona-zedshort.blogspot.com/ Steve Robb

        October sounds right.

    • Tom Krieg

      It is a function of UL as to the question of when not Mr. Rossi.

    • Robert Mockan

      If it does not happen within another few years, I will be dead of old age. So I’m really PISSED there is more delay.

      • Tom Krieg

        Not to worry.

        China will be selling these things in volume (like IPhones) before UL provides their first feedback to Mr. Rossi on the 10 KW unit. There is so much inertia and politics involved in the process, I am not sure we will ever “getter done”.

        Why do you think Apple manufactures their products in China?

        You will get your unit before your die of old age but, it might say “Made in China” on the bottom.

        I hate being a realist. The technology is good but the implementation will be mired in BS.

        All you smart fellows out there.

        Demonstrate the certification process will take less then a year. Lets’ see some data that proves it can be done expeditiously.

    • EduardoRG

      Yea, October sounds right.

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  • daniel maris

    I don’t think it’s impatience so much as some worrying developments concerning Rossi and Defkalion.

    Rossi, in particular, seems to have switched from a fairly open engagement to a complete unwillingness to explain. Why is E cat certification such an issue now? Has the 1MW machine left the Bologna facility yet? Did the 1 MW machine never have certification? If not, why not? Has he yet leased or built a factory in the USA? Why all the secrecy with Siemens, if he is working with them?

    Answers come there none…

    It’s Rossi’s fault.

    It may be he has something. But if he does he is making things really difficult for himself and for the E cat.

    On the other hand I feel that in broad terms over the last year, the general developments in LENR have been v. positivem, particularly the granting of the LENR patent to NASA and the growing acceptance of the idea of LENR in the scientific community as witnessed by this week’s presentations.

    I am more interesting in the more conventional science teams now.

  • sven

    I hope we get some good news on the CERN and NASA lectures this Thursday and Friday. There we have independent researchers publishing their progress within the scientific community. What we need urgently now is not necessarily a functional E-CAT, but the prove that will convince the economy and politician to change course.

    There is an increasing war-risk building up in the gulf and middle-east due to the Iran/West nuclear conflict. If anyone has a technology up in his sleeve that could change the course of action and save thousands of lives if published, but did decide to hold back for some months to maximize his profit, what kind of person would that be? Would that be any different from having a cure to a deadly influenza but keep it back until enough people got sick to maximize the customer group? This is not a new IPAD that must be kept secret but a potential new route in the history of mankind. The persons with the knowledge must behave responsible or be judged for not doing so.

    • clovis

      Sven,
      Hi, guy, i believe that energy is true power,
      He who has the most energy , will lead,all else will fallow, so if LENR is the golden calf, so be it.
      I kinda feel like we have been kept in the dark about this for some reason, greed most likely. –smile.

    • wizer13

      In a world where nations are in constant need of economic growth, if they base their whole system on a limited supply of energy (like oil), it is like building a home on quicksand.
      China, even if I question their laws regarding human rights, as some common sense as they are deversifying their energy sources. They are one of the major researchers for thorium salt molten reactor with India right now, in hope of limiting the future conflits regarding oil.
      But, we live in a world of free market. If a company cannot supply, something else is likely to take the lead to meet the demand. And, as demand grows, even big cartels will need to adjust to the new reality, if not, their whole system they builded years ago will crash below them. But, they are businessmen, so I think (and that’s just my opinion) they already know what to do next to keep on going charging for energy. Ignorance and fear are powerful weapons that control the masses, and they are many solutions which can revolution the world as we know it. But let’s not be pessimistic, many things can happen within a year, so, imagine in just a lapse of ten years what might be discovered. If LENR is not real (I’m a believer in this energy field, just to mention), there are several other sources which can be explored, if ressources are put in it. Just look at this after one year. One year ago, only a few still thought cold fusion was dead. And now, their ranks grow in numbers. Only time will tell. Let’s hope for the best.

      Cheers

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  • http://none.com Charles Ponzi

    In reply to Ged’s thread…

    From what I know they haven’t reversed anything. Their testing is ongoing and they’re waiting until all 7 independent testers are done and reading to all submit their own reports at the same time. Which apparently will be in mid April.

  • http://none.com Charles Ponzi

    April 1st to be exact:)

    • http://www.nickelpower.org Bruce Fast

      LOL

  • http://www.grupoice.com Jorge Jimenez

    Luck because there are still men like Andrea Rossi, men who do not flinch under pressure at times absurd that many people speculate or makes fun of those who are trying to revolutionize the world to do something a common good for everyone.
    Whom we believe, are waiting with due patience, after all we had before the news and what we have today remains the same. So there is nothing wrong in waiting and have the calm necessary to understand the complexities that exist in this process. Instead I found very serious part of Rossi, that he has been announcing every step is taking place in the search for his invention to make something usable for everyone, but, in turn, beneficial to their future business. I do not think anything strange to be so, any act with great secrecy, as this knowledge is gold and so, he still can not give the exact location of his mine, but, like everything else, will come.

  • http://none.com Charles Ponzi

    If Rossi alone is the only person who can give us cold fusion then we are in trouble.

    • Layman

      Why doesn’t anybody talk about Global Energy Systems? http://www.globalenergysys.net/acknowledgments.html
      They seem to have a solution for everything. Cold fusion with much higher COP than Rossi, a way to directly convert the waste heat into electricity,a hydrogen on-demand system which can be used for existing vehicles that are rebuilt etc. A hoax as well?

      • Ged

        Really hard to say anything about them.

      • NonFiction

        No, not a hoax, just not being funded by anyone. Any company that wants to manufacture those products (pre-certified by UL, so obviously real technology) can contact them about licensing. If no one is willing to manufacture the products, then we will never see them on the market, simple as that. If you want to ask the real question, then ask why there are no big companies stepping up to the plate to do so.

        Remember the rules of economics; if it is cheaper to stick with what you are already doing, then why branch out and detract from your existing product line by introducing something that makes it obsolete?

        • http://none.com Charles Ponzi

          I don’t buy that logic. It’s like you’re on the island like in the TV series Lost. You tell everyone that we will now have milk because you found a cow. Everyone says great, let’s have a cup. You tell them, not yet, you’re still building the dairy and the pasteurizing and packaging plant.

          • NonFiction

            No, it’s saying “bring a cup”. If everyone is too stinking lazy or cheap to even bring a cup, how is that the fault of either the cow or the person waiting to milk it? Does that mean there is no cow and no milk? Of course not. It means that you are too lazy or cheap to bring a cup.

          • NonFiction

            Why don’t you take some positive action before you publicly jump to conclusions? If you are a legitimate manufacturer, contact the company. If you are just assuming whatever you want, then you have no facts upon which to base an opinion.

      • Bruno

        Global Energy looks like a hoax. They list practically every free energy “technology”, including LENR, on their “Products” page in order to hook the believers. The fact is, any person or company that has a true working and practical LENR device/solution could make a smash hit out of it in no time flat. Especially a “company” like Global that doesn’t even manufacture. If they proved their product in a real test, everybody and their brothers would be knocking their door down to license the technology.

        • Pontus

          The energy companies would buy exclusive rights but since there is no money is selling free energy we would never see it. Energy is a bigger market than all other products combined. A substantial portion of the price you pay for anything yo but is energy for production and transport. It would not be good business for them to reduce the cost of energy. They would not be able to maintain and grow their revenue.

      • Robert Mockan

        GES does not sell any products. They want to license their “solutions” to “qualified” manufacturering companies.

        Do they have “solutions”?

        It would not seem many (any?) buyers are rushing to make deals.

    • http://www.nickelpower.org Bruce Fast

      Yes, if Rossi is the only one we are in trouble.
      However, he is by no means the only one. Here are some of the others.

  • http://neotreksoftware.com Allan Shura

    Maybe we could get some news on the first 1MW
    plant. The instrumentation was refitted about
    a month ago and Rossi said it would be out the door within a few weeks.

    • Lu

      You are right, it should have shipped by now (by start of March). But we’ll probably not hear anything more since the customer is secret. Maybe some old fashioned sleuthing or something from the grapevine will turn something up but don’t expect anything from Rossi.

  • Lu

    While impatience is certainly a contributor to increasing skepticism, I also think that the recent developments are also contributing to increased skepticism. This is certainly true in my case especially with regard to Defkalion. The facts are starting to hit the fan, so to speak.

    Despite this, I acknowledge that circumstances could change rapidly and I appreciate your efforts in following and publishing the developments. Despite my increasing skepticism I will continue to follow this story if only because it is so interesting.

    • Ged

      What is it about Defkalion that makes you feel that way?

      • Lu

        There complete reversal about independent test reporting, blaming the forum, and then going dark. Totally irrational and unprofessional and delivering a huge hit on their credibility.

        • Ged

          From what I know they haven’t reversed anything. Their testing is ongoing and they’re waiting until all 7 independent testers are done and reading to all submit their own reports at the same time. Which apparently will be in mid April.

          Also, I pushed for them to close down their forum. It was silly for them to just be leaking little bread crumbs, they needed to wait and do everything all at once in a more official capacity, like they now are.

          • Lu

            In their official news release and right up to the last minute on their forum they insisted (multiple times) that test procedures will be published before the test along with the identity of the tester (if they consented) and that the results will be reported after the tests. This was a condition of the tests and reflected the position that these tests were indeed independent. I don’t believe this to be the case now.

            For me this is a big thing. If others want to now believe Defkalion’s new statement that they will publish all the results etc in mid April, I have no problems with that other than I don’t buy into it myself. We shall see.

          • daniel maris

            Lu is absolutely right. Defkalion executed an inelegant U turn and gave the finger to all those supporting or interested in their work.

            It was an astonishing way to behave.

          • Ged

            That I called them out on on their forums. They can’t just let out little snippets of unsupported information or claim they’ll finally give us info and then not do so.

            If they decide to wait till all 7 are done, that’s fine then. It’s bothersome going back on what they said about telling us minor details as stuff is ongoing, as you point out, but it’s a sensible change.

            Honestly, it sounds like they bit off more than they could chew PR wise, and decided to just do it all at once as any mature company would do; rather than act like a hobbiest stop.

            But, if they don’t do anything by April, then I’m writing them off.

  • Ivan Mohorovicic