Competition With E-Cat is Rossi’s Biggest Worry — Automation is His Solution

Listening to Andrea Rossi talking about his E-Cat invention it doesn’t take long to get the firm impression that he is absolutely convinced of the reality of his E-Cat technology he is working on.

As people first learn about E-Cat technology it is not uncommon for them to be incredulous that it could work at all; but to hear Rossi discuss his technology the E-Cat is as commonplace to him as any conventional working technology would be to any engineer. Rossi discusses his technology in a very matter-of-fact manner, and the impression given is that unless the E-Cat only exists in a complete fantasy world that he has created, he indeed has in his hands a working technology that will emerge as an energy source far superior than anything we have yet seen on Earth.

To Rossi, the technology itself is not especially problematic. Yes, there are technical problems that need to be addressed and solved, but he seems confident that these can be solved with work, time and good engineering. The area where Rossi seems to have the most concern is in the area of competition, especially from China and other countries where products are made so cheaply these days. Rossi is realistic in expecting that reverse engineering of the E-Cat will take place, and has a strategy to combat it. Here are some comments Rossi made on the topic from the recent interview on the Smart Scarecrow.

“So we have to fight against them with best, better engineering in the production lines. Now our efforts are passed from the technology of the E-Cat which is mature and stable right now, to the engineering system. Because if not, we have won the battle of the technology, we risk to lose the war of the competition.”

“Yes, we have patents pending, but to be sure that the reverse engineering will not put in jeopardy our production, the best way to fight against the competition is to have a very low price. This is the effort that now we are making, because I foresee that we will have to compete against production made in China, and we have China or other countries where … we cannot compete against that kind of social system that makes the work have costs that are unsustainable for us.”

“We have to be prepared so that it will be impossible to beat us under the economic point of view. If not, we will make the end of the companies like Solyndra or the other one, that you know started making solar panels, but then arrived the Chinese and they have been put out of business. And you know, we have to study very well those cases in history, because we must foresee what they will do. And we must anticipate this war, because this is a war, and we want to win it.”

The weapon that Rossi’s Leonardo corporation has come up with to fight this war by keeping costs as low as possible is automation. When asked how he planned to keep E-Cat low enough to be competitive, Rossi responded, “Automation . . . we are engineering a factory where we can automatize everything at the maximum level. To cut the times, to cut the costs of assembling, and that’s it.”

So rather than using low wages, and harsh working conditions to keep costs down, as is done in some countries, Rossi is counting on a fully automated “robotic” production facility to make this possible. Ironically this will have the effect of limiting the number of jobs that can be created — and job creation has been one of Rossi’s stated goals regarding the new E-Cat industry. But it is hardly surprising that he is going the automation route — this is constant trend in all industries, and automated mass production techniques have been a main reason for the falling prices in all kinds of consumer products from microwaves to computers to smart phones.

Leonardo Corporation will also need to be constantly improving its products to stay ahead of the competition. It’s not so hard to copy what someone else has already accomplished, but it is not possible to duplicate a dedicated and inventive mind — which is what has led to Andrea Rossi’s current situation. It is hard to conceive that he will stop working on developing his invention.

  • Brad Arnold

    It is too bad that some people need to be dragged kicking and screaming into a world with a clean, cheap, and abundant new energy source.

    At first I didn’t understand, but now I do: Rossi has no choice but to commercialize LENR. Even the part where he says to give it away would delay and retard successful LENR economic integration.

    Besides, it looks like Rossi has a fine team assembled that is improving the E-Cat at a reasonable rate. In fact, the only reason why the plutocrates and currupt politicians, lawyers, and government officials haven’t tried to stop LENR yet is because they simply can’t believe that Rossi is legitimate.

    As another poster says: go-Rossi-go!! He’ll help the poor and perhaps save the planet despite the best efforts of certain evil people to stop him. Even if the US (where our disfunctional system benefits the plutocrates) does try to stifle LENR, the technology will simply reappear in another country, and that overwhelming economic advantage will force all countries to eventually adopt it (ironically due to the same globalization that has enriched so many of the same people who want to maintain the status quo that will eventually cause a bottle-neck).

  • EnergyGuy

    On “… competition, especially from China and other countries where products are made so cheaply these days”:

    The only real problem of competition from China is cheap, almost slave, labour in that country. Raise Chinese wages to even 1/2 the level of the U.S. or Canada, and that problem would mitigate considerably.

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  • Pontus

    Rossi is doing the right making an automated high volume low cost production line for the reactors and cores because he can sell billions of them OEM to product manufacturers. Rossi is working on a core that will make temperatures in excess of 120 degrees so this can make electricity and power cars, planes, boats, and everything else. Go Rossi Go!

  • arian

    #
    Andrea Rossi
    January 16th, 2012 at 3:57 PM

    Dear Harold:
    It will be a real miracle if we will succeed to be ready with our extremely complex industrialization by the next winter.
    Probably you have no idea what does mean to make a device like this at 50 Euro/kW.
    By the way: with all respect, this technology has absolutely nothing to do with the F.P. electrolysis: we do not make electrolysis, do not use deuterium, nor palladium, nor platinum.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

    • Joe

      I’m sure if this things actually produces more energy than is put into it then more rational businessmen will do a much better job with the device than Rossi once 1 is reversed engineered. I will wait for 1 of these things with a Carrier or GE logo slapped on the side of it.

      I hope Rossi ends up like Nikola Tesla who died an old bitter penniless pauper. Sweet karma for acting like an irrational snake oil salesman.

      • http://www.libertynewspost.com Becktemba

        I’m simply dumbfounded by all the trolls, haters, backstabbers and those who simply are closed minded when it comes to Mr. Rossi.
        This guy who made them comment above calls him an “irrational snake oil salesman.”
        With all that the E-cat must be true. Why else would folks have such a vile reaction? If the guy is really trying to con everyone it will be a matter of time before he’s proven wrong.. if not, then Mr. Rossi needs to watch his back because some people are straight evil when it comes to something like changing the the worlds energy paradigm. I think it takes someone EXACLTY like Rossi to make this happen.

  • Robert Mockan

    Even people who understand paradigm changing technology have a difficult time getting their heads around the E-Cat.

    Petroleum has an energy density of about 45 megajoules per kilogram. The industrialized world has been built with energy mostly from petroleum.

    From the specifications of the E-Cat that Rossi has revealed, it can generate about 10,000 watts of power using 100 grams of activated nickel, for 180 days, before it needs refueling. That means the activated nickel in an E-Cat has an energy density equal to about ((10,000 joule/second)*(3600 second/hour)*(24 hour/day)*(180 day))/.1 kilogram, or 156,520 megajoules per kilogram (if my arithmetic is correct).

    petroleum= 45 megajoules per kilogram
    activated nickel= 156,520 megajoules per kilogram

    A person can say they understand what this is going to mean to the world, but I doubt any body has a good handle yet on all the ways this is going to affect the world.

    • Gregoryyc

      NO no no. My friend, you forgot the most important part. Only about 5% of the powder is reactant the rest is recycled. Not olny that. In 10kw system cylinder it only uses about 10grams or so. That makes about 0.5g active material.
      If so. then the result will need to be multiplied by 200 at least assuming your arithmetic ok.
      That would make it +31.104 Million mega. joules/kg

      That gives it 6.8 Million times energy from oil !!!

  • ostap

    I went to JONP and asked Dear mr.Rossi a question: “Is E-cat a lie?” Maybe he doesn’t know people are curious about it. But seems like my post didn’t pass through “the certification” and hasn’t appeared there.

  • Sanjeev

    From:

    http://blog.newenergytimes.com/2012/01/16/high-energy-meets-low-energy-a-first-at-cern/

    Celani reports in an e-mail to LENR researchers that he has received an invitation to speak at CERN about LENR.

    “The key point is that CERN changed from [being] fully negative to [having] deep interest,” Celani wrote.

    🙂 Looks like the tables are turning…

  • http://none.com Charles Ponzi

    Well we have an explanation of why NASA decided to patent this technology. While NASA itself is welfare for scientists it does have a strange feature called technology transfer. This allows a scientist collecting welfare to start their own business within the company, NASA, and run it while they are earning a paycheck until the business takes off. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a whole infrastructure of cronies out there in Langley trying to make a buck off of this. While it is unethical, because de-facto this is Rossi’s invention, it is 1000x better to let these daylighters inside of NASA turn this into an industry/government partnership rather than to wait for the Italian stallion to get his factory up and running.

  • Allan Shura

    The introduction of machine tools during the industrial revolution increased production
    and living standards. A factory robot is another
    machine.

    More people can move to other jobs and problems we have fewer resources for today while maintaining and increasing living standards and improving the quality of life.

    The question of jobs and income distribution of production is social and philosphical.

    • fredquimby

      “The question of jobs and income distribution of production is social and philosphical.”

      equalmoney.org goes a long way in answering that

      • http://www.ConservativeBedtimeStories.com Innocent

        Yeah and it is a fairly ignorant one… I can easily disprove the ‘formula’; they are attempting to create VERY easily. That just as goods are based on a supply demand curve upon which the unlimited wants of people must be equalized via the limited resources of production capabilities. This is further complicated by the myriad demands of service/government/and chain supply structures.

        The truth is that ‘wealth’ has to do with standard of living and base economic values and that ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ are compared on base standard + additional purchasing power.

        This device, if it is real, will boost the standard of living for the ‘have nots’ of limited purchasing potential allowing more of their wealth to be used for wants other than heat and electricity ( eventually ) which currently is a larger burden on the ability of ‘the have nots’ to provide.

        Additionally I know for a fact that there are those who have no interest in doing anything but have society take care of them. One of my sister in laws is this kind of person. She is taken care of by all of the various agencies out there and while rarely has much money is able to sit on her butt at home and eat food provided by the Government, enjoy heat, provided by the government, and even a place to live, provided by the Government. It was not a nice place to live but it a roof over here head. Oh and day care, where she drops her kids off and then goes back to her home and watches T.V. until it is time to pick them up…

        A Society of people who feel little need to better their situation is the WORST possible society. I am fearful of the future, ergo I store food, which when a time of famine hits I have adequate reserves to meet my needs. Others who did not take upon themselves the responsibility to do the same end with nothing.

        Ignorant sites like this one you linked to make me sick at how simple minded fools can be directed to thought processes that can actually harm not just society but world economic growth and stability. The belief that something like this can create the Utopia they think is just outside of our reach.

        Utopias start with the individual understanding that they can be good, decent human beings if they take the responsibility of doing real good to real people. Not in creating ‘equity’ amongst people. Equity has little to do with raising people up and more with tearing those that succeed down.

        Rossi I hope you are immensely successful. I hope you earn a Billion+ Euro with this invention, I hope you are first to market with it if it is real. I hope that REAL equity, which is reaping what you sow, comes your way. I also hope simpletons like this ( I am sure you are a nice person and mean well but the path to Hell is paved with good intentions ) do not then attempt to ‘equalize’ what you have done.

        Sorry for the rant but things like this set my teeth on edge. Real wealth comes from hard work, determination, and at times a little luck. “Equalization” comes from those who rather than put the time, effort, and sacrifice in that is required for said benefits simply believe they can get it without changing themselves first.

  • Anony Mole

    Rossi is foolish to approach this as a “war”.

    NO ONE WINS A WAR.

    This is much more like the advent of the personal computing industry; a HUGE pie being eaten by hundreds of companies. Many of the initial adopters of personal computing as an industry came, took their cut, and faded as they could not adapt quickly enough. Some managed to evolve as the industry and the new niches and venues sprouted up. The computing industry was never a “war” it was a paradigm shift. It was a new frontier. A frontier where thousands of players could make their mark and make their living.

    An IBM personal computer cost $10,000 when first debuted. HP, Apple, DEC, Compaq, Tandy, Dell, and hundreds of others ALL made money from this new frontier.

    LENR is simply the next “new frontier.” Rossi should only focus on delivering a quality product at ANY price.

    LENR is the new energy frontier.

  • http://www.nickelpower.org Bruce Fast

    This post, in my opinion clearly states why Rossi is determined to introduce a low price, rather than selling what he can at a higher price. I think, however, that his biggest competition fear is Defkalion.

    However, Rossi is way out of his element now. He is an inventor, not a businessman. He would be wise to partner with those who know how to make business happen. For starters Rossi needs to get into parts supply, rather than finished product supply. There are a gazillion companies that would love to wrap all manner of technology around e-cats. They want to be able to buy e-cat cores, add “value” such as cars and airplanes that incorporate the e-cats.

    As far as Rossi being worried about competition, well, with the possible exception of a very strong patent, he will not end up as the sole provider of LENR technology. There is vast buckets of room for Defkalion, the Chineese, and a bunch of others in this space. The war won’t be won on price either, it’ll be won on product variety. The LENR provider that does the best job of letting the innovative world incorporate their technology will win.

  • Tony
    • PersonFromPorlock

      My wife uses my e-mail account: that doesn’t make me her.

  • Martin6078

    The fighting of competitors ist a furter evidence for me of well working E-Cat, like announced. To bring prize down and numbers of units high shows me it will be a hard race. I see the job generating by E-Cat in the sevice sector: Publicating, selling to coustomers, distributing, installation, recharging and troubleshooting.
    best regards to all:
    Martin

  • Lu

    Andrea Rossi is concerned about competitors and his approach is to produce E-Cats with a price low enough to disincentivize his competition. To keep prices low he is using automation and mass production techniques and claiming a mature product.

    The problem I see is that price is not really set by the cost of production but by the dynamics of supply and demand. Even with production of 1 million/year, I can see demand far outstripping supply–people love saving money! It seems to me quite possible that competitors can come in and create/reverse engineer there own E-Cats within a year(perhaps this is the strategy of Defkalion) and then sell the product for whatever the market will bear.

    On the other hand, it may not be so simple or cheap to incorporate an E-Cat into one’s heating system, or people may want to wait for the electric E-Cat, or the E-Cat may not work as expected, that 1 million/year (more probably as factories get established) will meet demand and thus keep the price low. I frankly don’t see this. All of this, of course, assuming the E-Cat works as thus far advertised.

    • Steve Robb

      I don’t understand why people are puzzling over how to retrofit existing units when a straight up replacement with an E-cat would still provide great savings with the near zero fuel cost.

      • Jimr

        The problem could be today’s economy,depending on your present heating system the cost to modify will be several thousand dollars. Modifying hot air system, using to heat or preheat hot water, venting excess heat to exterior, etc.
        Then if you get to the electrical generation, syncing the phasing, disconnects so no feed back to input lines in case of input power loss, etc, etc. Anyone with large solar panel system can tell you the cost of all of that, tho they received a subsidy.

    • http://www.ConservativeBedtimeStories.com Innocent

      You are looking at two separate equations.

      Production Costs is how much you can produce a unit for and then HAVE to sell it at in order to make a profit. The idea to discourage competition is to set a small enough margin that the creation of Competition is unlikely.

      You sell to a supplier at a certain price and then the supplier deals with the Supply Demand Curve. In other words if your unit cost is constant and you offer a small margin price to the re-seller they then deal with the cost via demand ratio.

      Now you may simply think that the Supply Demand would kick in immediately but it does not. Look at everyone on the boards here that are willing to purchase the product right away, these are early adopters. Why do not new Ipads cost 10 times the price they do? The answer is that there is no need to set the price that high to begin with and over time market saturation is reached. Even with a flood of additional tablets, because the are seen as ‘cheap knock offs’ they have not been embraced.

      The same dynamic will be attempted to be created with this Product.

      Additionally Market saturation is going to be achieved fairly quickly. I mean there are only so many of these that can be produced ( in the USA only around 150 Million will be ‘needed’ ) to achieve saturation. You may think that this is a no brainier but like everything there is a law of supply demand. Only so many people will be able to afford the product and will be willing to wait in line for it. While on the secondary market there may be large cost spikes so long as a supply remains steady this will flatten out fairly quickly.

      Now say a ‘knock off’ enters the market. It would force the secondary market to go down, ergo the margins of the newcomer would go down, leading to a market stabilization at the price Rossi sets as his standard. Barring the ‘Competitor’ can achieve production costs per unit similar to Rossi in the end they would go out of business and Rossi would remain solvent.

      Flip your problem around. If Rossi came to market with an expensive product how long would it take a competitor to beat his price in Production costs?

      Rossi is looking at the effects not of initial supply demand curves but rather the long term 5 years down the road supply demand curves where actual market forces will be in effect rather than the initial one.

      Additional capacity, so long as the initial 1 Million run can be met, will be slowly added. The Second Year an additional million added etc… Until a large enough production to meet supply demand as it exists comes available.

      Now if the desire for two Billion Units exists then there will ultimately be multiple distributors and manufacturers. But if Rossi keeps his price low enough then at least he will not die the death of Solyndra and become irrelevant in a couple years.

  • Steve Robb

    There is too much dust and smoke obscuring the view of what is going on and I am beginning to become very distressed. I would not be surprised of the 1 MW reactor was not functioning perfectly and returned without prejudice as it is a prototype. I just wish there was something more substantial to grasp hold of other than rumors from some guy posting on a bulletin-board. In the meantime I am going to have to avoid this site and all such others for the sake of my sanity.

    • http://posthuman-future.tumblr.com/ Posthuman

      I second that, we seem to be chasing a lot of hot air.

      Will try and forget about this charade and come back in 6 months to find out if *anything* substantial has been *proven*.

      Hope it is – best of luck to all involved.

    • Bob

      Some have inquired about does the Florida facility exist? I do not know other than a quick search for Florida business licenses confirm:

      Leonardo Corporation.
      Andrea Rossi PD
      James Travis SD

      1331 Lincoln Rd Apt 505
      Miami Beach, Fl

      Lincense applied for 11/8/2010
      Annual report submitted 4/29/2011

      So at least a business license was granted,
      however the primary location seems to be
      an apartment building.

      • Stanny Demesmaker

        If Rossi was a fraud then Krivit had him already grilled on a stake.

        It’s quite funny, that his total lack of evidince against ROssi gives me just alot of confident that Rossi tells the truth.

    • John

      I’m with you. Not so much for my sanity, but checking it every day is quite a bit of a time waster. Does the e-cat work? I don’t know, and neither does anybody, really.

      This really is an unusual situation. Someone is driving a train into a mountain. The tracks lead to the base of the mountain. “Don’t worry, it’ll go over” the driver says. I’m standing at the base of the mountain, wondering whether it will make it, or crash and burn at the base. I can’t turn away.

      There is a group of people at the top of the mountain. They are certain it’s going to make it. I’m at the bottom, certain it’s not. I’m wondering why those people at the top are different from me, and how they’ll react when it crashes.

  • Roberto

    Andrea Rossi
    http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=510&cpage=42#comment-170607

    January 16th, 2012 at 7:09 AM

    Dear Roger:
    Another “rumorist” has written somewhere that our Customer has given us back the 1 MW E-VCat: this is another stupidity, totally false.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

    Are the vortex-1 “insiders” true or not?

    • http://www.choicedowsing.com kwhilborn

      One customer? Only one?
      With today’s date on message.

      I thought they had a line up of 1MW plant buyers.

      • daniel maris

        I think only one has taken delivery…I might be wrong.

        But anyway, English is not his first language so “one customer” could easily mean “one of our customers”.

      • psi

        There are only two confirmed customers. One has purchased one and ordered twelve more. One has purchased one, which I don’t think has been delivered. So yes, one. According to the latest from Rossi (tmk)many others are “in discussion” but unconfirmed at this time.